Air transport prices soared at the sea port of dashai, but "even a small transfer of transport capacity will crowd out air transport"

when the air freight price is only 3 times the sea freight price, will the cargo owner come up with a new freight arrangement and combination to change the transportation pattern of the supply chain?

However, the prices of major air cargo routes from China to the United States have almost doubled in the past three months. According to freightos shipping price index (fbax), from the beginning of October to the middle of December, the average air freight rate of 250kg cargo from major ports in China to eight major destination cities in the United States increased by 25%. As of the last update on December 19, the price was US $5164 (about US $20.6 / kg).

According to the data of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), by weight, air transport accounts for less than 1% of Global trade, but by value, the air cargo industry is responsible for transporting 35% of world trade.

"From the demand side, in the first year of the epidemic in 2020, there is no problem of port congestion in the United States. Even if there is, it is not as serious as this year. The sudden outbreak of port problems has shifted a small part of the goods originally planned to go by sea to air." Wan song, head of dhlink Business Department of dunhuang.com, a cross-border e-commerce, also warned in an interview with China business news that " is only a small part, but due to the large scale of shipping, as long as 2% ~ 5% of the goods (by sea) are transferred to air transportation, the supply of air transportation will be unbearable and will explode. "

" even a small capacity transfer will crush air transportation "

"Everyone knows that if they want to put things on the shelves before Christmas, they must use air transportation." Said Yngve Ruud, global air transportation director of Kuehne + Nagel, one of the world's largest freight forwarding companies.

In order to deliver the goods to customers in time, some carriers who originally took the sea route had to choose more expensive air transportation. The increased demand during has also been reflected in the freight level of air transportation.

"We see that the price of one-way charter flights from Asia to the United States provided by some airlines is close to US $3 million," said the director of an all cargo airline. "Some shippers try to honor the contract when sea transportation is not really feasible, and those who use traditional air transportation also buy as many shipping spaces as possible in advance.".

According to IHS Markit, air freight rates across The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) regions are much higher than those reached during the medical equipment transportation boom in May 2020. According to the latest data from freightos and freight data provider TAC freight, at present, the global air freight rate is $4.41/kg, 30% higher than that at the beginning of the year. In addition, as of the week of December 19, the price of the route from China to the central United States exceeded $15 per kilogram, and the price in mid September was only about $9.50.

Wan Song said: "before the epidemic, under normal circumstances, the air transport price of the belly warehouse of the passenger plane was about 20 ~ 30 yuan per kilogram on average in the whole year. The price of the chartered plane, taking the Boeing 747 (747-erf) as an example, its theoretical capacity is 100 tons, and the round-trip of the chartered plane is about 500000 US dollars."

However, after the epidemic, the fluctuation of air transport prices needs to be seen in stages. Wan Song said: "it has been two years since the epidemic. Although it was also an epidemic last year, air transportation is not so tense. The price fluctuated up and down based on 60 yuan / kg in 2020, which has doubled compared with that before the epidemic."

since this year, the air transport price has gradually increased from 60 yuan / kg. In the peak season at the end of the year, the highest price has reached 120 yuan / kg. Wan Song said: "since mid December, because the general traditional foreign trade has entered the off-season (the peak season of cross-border e-commerce will last until January), the air transport price has decreased slightly to 60 ~ 70 yuan / kg, which is still higher than that of last year. After the epidemic, the charter flight of the same model as the original needs at least US $1 million."

So what goods will have to turn to more expensive air transportation? Wan Song said, "for example, we want to export a batch of clothing. We originally planned to ship it by sea, but now the arrival is far from expected. I have to quickly deliver two tons of this batch of 20 tons of clothing to the American market by air, so that the United States can sell the goods, and the others continue to float at sea. As a Chinese factory or trader, I will adopt such a strategy. When more people adopt this strategy, even a proportion of 5% will crush the capacity of air transportation. "

Bharat ahir, chief executive of supply chain consulting firm 28one, said that as the supply chain is under pressure, consumers will eventually feel the impact. "There are two obvious effects. One is that the supply will be reduced, and the other is that the things you get will be more expensive," he said

is the price of air transportation more competitive than that of sea transportation

Because it is faster and more convenient, the price of air transportation has been far greater than that of sea transportation. However, since the outbreak, the relative prices of air and sea transportation are declining. The report of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in November pointed out that air cargo is still highly competitive compared with the cost of container transportation. Before the crisis, the average price of air transportation was 12.5 times that of sea transportation. In 2021 year 9 month, the air price is only 3 times the sea price.

Freightos developed the weekly freight price index fbax using thousands of weekly price data from freight forwarders. From the perspective of Sino US freight lines, as of December 19, FCL's sea freight price was US $22508 / 40 foot standard container (feu), while the average air freight price was US $5164 / 250kg. At the beginning of the year, the two prices were US $8554 / feu and US $3087 / 250kg respectively. According to IATA's algorithm, assuming that the weight of each standard container is 9 tons, we can get . At the beginning of 2021 , the sea freight price of this line was 7.6% of the air freight price, but by the end of this year, this ratio was expanded to 12% {123456.

Wan Song told the first financial reporter: "At present, the sea freight price has not decreased and has increased slightly, which is very abnormal. At present, the sea freight price of China and the United States is that the high-end and fast sea freight service such as Mason express is 40000 US dollars / container, and other ordinary ones are about 7000 ~ 9000 us dollars / container. For LCL, Mason express is about 30 yuan / kg. The current sea freight price is the same as the air freight price before the epidemic Almost. "

In contrast, Wan Song said that from the second half of this year to the beginning of December, air transport prices rose to more than 100 yuan / kg, with a peak of 120 yuan / kg.

IATA wrote in its report released in mid December that the global cargo loading rate has eased, but some important trade routes are still tight and higher than the level in 2019. "Air freight rates have been rising throughout 2021 and began to rise again at the beginning of the peak air freight season due to insufficient capacity. however, compared with container freight rates, air freight is still more competitive than before the crisis ." IATA said.

air transport capacity may shrink permanently

After entering the holiday season, there is still a huge gap between supply and demand in air transport capacity. According to the data released by IATA in December, the global air cargo demand increased by 9.4% year-on-year in October 2019, while the supply of transport capacity was 7.2% lower. This means that there is a gap of more than 15 percentage points between supply and demand.

Why is the air transport capacity insufficient? Adam cowburn, executive director of Alton aviation consulting, an aviation consulting company, explained to the first financial reporter that air cargo generally has two main carrying forms. One is the cabin of the passenger plane, which is often referred to as "belly cargo", and the other is a special cargo aircraft.

The cargo carried by airliners usually accounts for about 50% of air transportation. During the epidemic, a large number of airliners were forced to grounded, and even if the passenger traffic recovered, it was mostly concentrated on leisure routes, rather than between major trade centers. According to industry media reports, outside Asia, the travel ban grounded long-distance passenger flights, effectively eliminating half of the available air cargo capacity in the market. "Leisure travelers who prefer to check multiple suitcases return faster than business travelers, and the space capacity is also limited," Rudd added

The grounding of passenger aircraft (after the epidemic) has eliminated a large part of the cargo capacity. at present, the abdominal cargo capacity is still about one-third lower than the level before the epidemic. Compared with the low point during the epidemic, this has improved. For most of the middle of 2020, the abdominal cargo capacity has decreased by more than 50% year-on-year. On the other hand, the capacity of special cargo aircraft is about a quarter higher than the level before the epidemic. " Gaoande said.

According to British media reports, some airlines have changed to cargo flights, and special air cargo companies such as FedEx and DHL have also picked up some cheap.

"The response of some airlines is to shift most of their capacity and focus to cargo business. As a temporary solution, many airlines have converted passenger aircraft into cargo tasks, creating the commonly known ' passenger to cargo' ( Premier ) aircraft " , put the cargo in a place usually in the cabin. Many industry-leading airlines, such as Cathay Pacific, Korean Airlines, Lufthansa, Air Canada, Swiss airlines and other airlines, have taken such measures. "

Justin barrow, head of air cargo in Greater China of Maersk Asia Pacific, said that international travel will not return to the situation before the epidemic. It is foreseeable that the capacity provided by abdominal cargo will be reduced for a long time. "For example, airlines choose to update their fleet and buy newer, more fuel-efficient but smaller aircraft for international passenger transport. Boeing 747 may not return to the sky, and the abdominal cabin capacity will be reduced compared with that before the epidemic."

However, Gao Mingde said: "our current model predicts that a large number of passenger traffic will be restored within the time frame of 2023-2024, bringing meaningful additional freight capacity."

(First Finance)

 

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