[summary]
At present, most of the hydrogen used in fuel cells is industrial by-product hydrogen. In the future, with the development of fuel cells, the demand for "green hydrogen" will be higher and higher. Hydrogen production by proton exchange membrane electrolysis of water is an important source of hydrogen energy in the future.
The rapid development of wind solar power generation will drive the common development of hydrogen production and energy storage systems from power abandonment. The development of both is inseparable from proton exchange membrane. It is estimated that the consumption of proton exchange membrane in China will reach 27.65-28.5 million square meters in 2030. The application is mainly concentrated in the field of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, followed by proton exchange membrane electrolytic water process and all vanadium flow battery, The market space will reach 10 billion yuan.
At present, the market base of hydrogen energy is small, and the growth space of hydrogen energy will be very huge in the future, superimposed with policy promotion and other factors. The prediction of China's hydrogen energy consumption by foreign institutions is basically in the range of 60 million tons - 160 million tons (2050).
At present, China's hydrogen production and energy application have a certain foundation. Specifically, the technology of hydrogen production (including purification) is mature, but under the requirements of the dual carbon strategy and the promotion of hydrogen energy vehicles, the cost of hydrogen production and carbon emission in hydrogen production need to be reduced; Storage and transportation is mainly aimed at chemical users, and the storage and transportation industry for hydrogenation station has just started; Hydrogenation stations are scattered and need to be further constructed; There is a big gap between key materials and parts of fuel cell and foreign countries, but Chinese enterprises are catching up; Hydrogen energy vehicles are mainly buses and short-range test vehicles, and there are few passenger vehicles, but the long-term growth space is worth looking forward to.
The hydrogen energy industry chain drives the downstream demand of proton exchange membrane to increase rapidly
Proton exchange membrane is located at the end of the organic fluorine chemical industry chain, with great difficulty and high added value. Its upstream is the monomer material of organic fluorine chemical industry, and its downstream is mainly used in chlor alkali industry, fuel cell, electrolytic water, energy storage battery and other fields, among which chlor alkali industry and fuel cell are the main application fields.
The upstream organic fluorine chemical industry chain is guaranteed, and the capacity of basic raw material TFE is sufficient. The production capacity of China's organic fluorine chemical industry chain is guaranteed. Among the basic raw materials for proton exchange membrane preparation, the production capacity of tetrafluoroethylene is sufficient. Tetrafluoroethylene is produced from refrigerant R22. It is mainly used for polymerization to produce polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), thermal cracking to produce hexafluoropropylene (HFP), etc. HFP is one of the raw materials for the production of proton exchange membrane.
According to Zhuo Chuang information, PTFE is the fluoropolymer with the largest consumption in the world, and its production capacity, output and demand account for more than 50% of the global fluoropolymer;
The output of PTFE in China has remained basically unchanged in recent years, the operating rate of the industry has generally remained below 52%, and the overcapacity is serious. PTFE is the downstream extension of refrigerant R22. In order to digest R22 capacity, fluorine chemical enterprises have carried out supporting construction of PTFE capacity, resulting in serious overcapacity and difficulty in clearing capacity. PTFE is currently in the stage of overcapacity, which also highlights the sufficient capacity of tetrafluoroethylene in China, providing sufficient capacity guarantee for downstream branch HFP production and proton exchange membrane production.
PTFE and HFP production capacity are scattered, and HFP production capacity increases year by year. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, the PTFE production capacity in China is about 149600 tons, of which the production capacity of Dongyue Group is the first in China, 45000 tons. In 2020, the HFP capacity will be 60500 tons, with scattered capacity and low concentration. In recent five years, China's PTFE capacity and HFP capacity have basically increased year by year. The upstream organic fluorine chemical industry has sufficient production capacity, which provides sufficient guarantee for the downstream proton exchange membrane production.
Historically, the global proton exchange membrane was basically produced by large foreign companies, including DuPont of the United States, Asahi Nippon and Asahi Huacheng of Japan. China's proton exchange membrane industry has been in a domestic blank state for a long time. However, in recent years, some enterprises have successfully achieved localization technology breakthrough and mass production, which is expected to achieve high-end breakthrough.
It is estimated that China's proton exchange membrane market will be dominated by the vehicle fuel cell market in the future, with a market scale of more than 10 billion yuan.
(Jiufang zhitou)
