Key investment points:
China’s macro environment: the economy is low before and stable after, the policy is loose, and the hedging profit drops
China’s economic growth will continue to decline in the first half of the year, usher in an inflection point in the second quarter, and gradually pick up in the second half of the year. The overall trend of “√” is low in the front and high in the back, but the fluctuation range is basically controllable. The core of the election year is “stable”, and the annual GDP growth is expected to be about 5.2%.
At present, China’s economy is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. A number of forward-looking data reflect signs of slowing down the pace of economic growth. Superimposed on the influence of the base from high to low this year, it is expected that the economic growth will not improve in the first half of 2022, and the probability will continue to decline, driving down the profit expectation of some industries, but the interest rate hike has not been started overseas CPI growth is still moderate in the counter cyclical adjustment window period, the loose policy is expected to increase the valuation of the equity market to form a hedge, and A-Shares still have better allocation opportunities.
In the second half of the year, led by the moderate rise of CPI, the scissors gap between CPI and PPI is expected to further narrow, the policy boost may accelerate the recovery of China’s consumption, the middle and downstream industries are basically oriented well, and the profit expectation may continue to be repaired. The previous counter cyclical adjustment is expected to drive the overall trend of the economy higher and put the economy back into the upward channel, The fundamental space thus constructed may further deepen the macroeconomic structure adjustment along the directions of “common prosperity”, “digital economy” and “energy transformation” this year, tighten the margin of easing policies, and focus on “stability” and “economic structure optimization” in the overall regulation. In this process, the A-share market may undergo valuation adjustment, Out of the obvious structural market in the shock.
In terms of macro policy, we will maintain a stable and loose pattern as a whole. The loose policy in the first quarter may accelerate the implementation. The “combination fist” of more active fiscal policy and structural monetary instruments may be the main means, and the former loose and later stable may be the main rhythm. Policy easing is expected to increase in the first half of the year, and the first quarter of 2022 may be a better easing window period.
Overseas macro environment: the epidemic situation will continue to repeat, and the uncertainty risk will rise
The covid-19 epidemic will continue to repeat, but the impact or weakening will no longer be the biggest uncertain factor affecting the operation of the global economy. The theme of the overseas economy will change from “recovery” to “structural adjustment”, focusing on the uncertainty risk in the adjustment and the liquidity impact expected to be gradually realized by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year.
Supply and demand analysis of market funds: maintain stability, neutral and good
Looking forward to 2022, overseas monetary policy will be normalized and the liquidity inflection point is approaching. However, under the background of prominent downward pressure on the economy, China’s monetary policy will be loose in the first half of the year, and macro liquidity is likely to remain abundant; From the perspective of capital supply side: Although the overseas interest rate increase cycle may increase the pressure of capital outflow in the short term, the long-term allocation value of RMB assets is still expected to attract net capital inflow from the north; The scale of public funds is expected to increase steadily, the product monitoring of private placement quantitative strategy is stricter, the quality of private funds is rising, institutional investment gradually occupies the dominant position in the market, the popularity of fund investment is further improved, and the policy tone of not speculation in real estate is expected to guide residents’ assets to accelerate the transfer from real estate and other fields to the equity market; From the capital demand side, the initial fund-raising scale of the Beijing stock exchange is low, which has limited effect on capital diversion. IPO and additional issuance are expected to remain stable without significant changes in the policy environment.
2022 general trend research and judgment: structural opportunities emerge one after another, and the style is biased towards market growth + value
Taking into account the background factors of downward fundamentals, relatively abundant macro capital and neutral and cautious sentiment, the systematic risks and overall opportunities of the A-share market next year are small, and the upward space of index trend is limited, but the market does not lack structural market, so we can focus on the investment opportunities brought by industry rotation and hot topics.
Market style will shift to market growth + market value. After the centralized release of the performance of small and medium-sized plates this year, it may not be as expected next year under the dual influence of economic downturn and high base. Relatively speaking, the performance boom of the market, especially the growth of the market, continues, and the decline in performance growth next year is the narrowest. It is suggested to focus on GEM 50 and entrepreneurial blue chip; In addition, the performance growth rate of the market value is also relatively stable and sustainable, and its steady risk aversion characteristics are expected to highlight. Therefore, at the level of market style, it is recommended that investors pay more attention to the direction of the market growth and market value.
Industry configuration in 2022: stick to the main line of prosperity and resist macro risks? At the industry level, we suggest sticking to the main line of prosperity and focusing on two directions:
1) Pay close attention to the growth fields such as new energy and new energy vehicles, military industry, semiconductor, 5g and pharmaceutical cro that are expected to continue;
2) The value blue chips in the field of consumer services (mass food, household appliances, auto parts, tourism, etc.) whose fundamentals of balanced allocation are relatively lagging behind but have been greatly adjusted in the early stage of valuation.
（ Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) ）
