Resumption: in the fourth quarter, the food and beverage sector returned to the upward trend, with liquor leading the food upward. At the beginning of the year, the food and beverage sector increased significantly under the expectation of low base and high growth in 20q1. After the year, the epidemic situation showed a point like sudden state, the social zero consumption data was sluggish, the worry about consumption power became a reality, the catering recovery was less than expected, the competition deterioration caused by channel diversion and other factors affected the performance, and the sector entered a long adjustment period. At the end of September, Baijiu and condiments were released. Good food prices were raised by the popular food plate company. The growth of liquor performance was high and the first step was to repair the food. The company increased the price from the channel, and the company also adjusted its structure from the channel. At the same time, it continued to encourage, and the freshmen were in the adversity. We kept watch the opportunity to eat and drink in 2022.
Baijiu: structural prosperity of the industry, high growth and steady growth, the second high-end is still growing, and the real estate liquor sector is upgrading.
The trend of structural prosperity of liquor industry is continuous. The trend of Baijiu Baijiu to concentrate on dominant producing areas, dominant enterprises and dominant brands remains unchanged. The high-end Baijiu started a good start in 14th Five-Year with a definite growth rate, and CAGR is expected to maintain about 15% in the next five years. Maotai new Commander takes office, and the reform of marketing system and price system is constantly promoted, which is expected to open the price ceiling of the industry. It is recommended to focus on Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) / Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) / Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . Baijiu Baijiu, a new round of high-end Zhang Yuan expansion in the 21 years, and the high-end liquor in 2025 is expected to reach 140 billion yuan, with a capacity of 70 billion yuan. Secondary Baijiu business consumption accounts for a higher proportion, but it continues to benefit from the Growth Logic of brand concentration and consumption upgrading. Consumption structure is constantly optimized and consumption shows a weak cyclical nature. It is recommended to focus on Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) / Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) / Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) . Baijiu Baijiu, local liquor consumption mainstream price transition from east to west.
Jiangsu market is the leader in the upgrading of real estate wine, and the price range of 400-600 yuan has become the mainstream since 2018. Compared with Jiangsu and Anhui, the mainstream price in the market has jumped to 300 yuan, and there is huge room for upgrading in the price range of 300-600 yuan, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) is the leader in the upgrading of Hui liquor, and yingjiagong has benefited significantly. The mainstream price in Gansu has jumped to the price of 200-300 yuan, and the price of 400 yuan is in the early stage of high growth. It is suggested to focus on Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) / Yanghe liquor industry / Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) / Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) / Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) .
Beer: high-end, increase the average price, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and improve profits. In terms of sales volume, the beer industry is expected to grow weakly by about 4% in 22 years and return to the same period in 19 years. Looking forward to 22 years, with the improvement of vaccine penetration and driven by the recovery of consumption scenes such as night show and catering, it is expected that the total beer sales in 22 years will return to the level of 37 million tons in the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 4%. In terms of ton price, it is expected that the industry will maintain a single digit growth in 22 years, and the high-end trend will continue. In 2021, catering consumption will recover to a certain extent, and the ton price is expected to increase by about 8% in 2021. Looking forward to 22 years, driven by consumption upgrading and rising costs, the ton price of the beer industry is expected to maintain a single digit growth. It is suggested to focus on Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) / Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) / China Resources beer / Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) .
Condiment: seize the opportunity of reversal and watch for long-term value. Reviewing the decline of condiment industry in the first half of the year, it was driven by five factors: high inventory, weak demand, channel reform, rising cost and high base number; In the second half of the year, the inventory was reduced, the demand margin warmed up, the impact of group buying was controllable, the price increase boots landed, the base effect dissipated, and the performance of condiment enterprises ushered in month on month repair. Looking forward to 2022, the trend is still positive. The uncertainty mainly lies in the demand and cost trend under the epidemic situation. It is expected that the performance of 22q1 will be under pressure, the elasticity of Q2 will initially show, and Q3 & Q4 will return to normal. We believe that in the short term, we need to grasp the performance elasticity and valuation repair under the good trend of the bottom of the industry; In the long run, the volume and price of the condiment industry have increased simultaneously and the capacity has been expanded steadily. Some segments of the track are growing rapidly, but the industry concentration is still low. The leaders are actively arranged and seize market share by virtue of competitive advantages. It is expected to continue to maintain super industry growth and highlight long-term value. Recommend Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) and pay attention to Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) .
Freeze baking: grasping the industry β， Gross profit margin pressure needs to be improved. We are optimistic about the frozen baking track for a long time, with strong downstream demand and increasing penetration. According to neutral calculation, the market scale in 2025 is expected to be nearly 22 billion yuan, with broad development prospects, and enterprises in the industry can still enjoy the industry β， The competition pattern is good. In 2021, all industries will face upward pressure on costs, and there may be an inflection point in the cost in 22 years. With the superposition of price increase measures, the enterprise profits will be better. The production capacity of Ligao and Nanqiao will also be gradually implemented, and continue to build large single products in cooperation with commercial supermarket channels. It is recommended to focus on Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Namchow Food Group( Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) .
Halogen products: the epidemic situation has caused disturbance, the leading store has opened steadily, and pay attention to the recovery of single store and the sales of new products. For the store opening space of halogen products industry, we think it has not reached the ceiling, and the sinking market has great potential. The rapid growth of third tier cities is worthy of attention. In terms of store opening and single store, the industry is still in the recovery period in 21 years. The epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the store opening progress and the recovery of single store revenue. Jue Wei focuses on improving the brand potential energy. The joint launch of new products such as little red duck has a good effect.
In the past 22 years, we focused on the business expansion and single store revenue of enterprises. It is suggested to focus on Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) and Zhou Heiya.
Soft drinks: pay attention to the possibility of price increase in the plate and grasp the high growth track. The soft drink sector was seriously damaged during the epidemic. Since 2021, the soft drink sector has rapidly recovered to the pre epidemic level. However, the price of packaging raw materials such as pet has increased significantly. Most companies lock the price of raw materials this year, and the cost pressure has been controlled. It is expected that the downward pressure of high cost will rise next year. It is suggested to pay attention to the possibility of subsequent price increase of soft beverage enterprises. Among the soft drink segments, the growth rate of energy drinks is leading, and the growth rate of market scale will reach 10% in 2021. The market share of the second and third echelons in the competition pattern will continue to increase. It is suggested to focus on Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) in the orderly promotion of the nationalization of Dongpeng special drink and the pilot of multiple new products.
Low alcohol liquor: the emergence of new products promotes market expansion, and Bairun has a significant first mover advantage. With the rise of low alcohol wine, the number of market participants is increasing, and the categories are also diversified from pre mixed cocktails to fruit wine, plum wine, hard soda, etc. We expect that the development of the industry in this round will be more healthy and rational than that in the previous round. The entry of many original track giants and cutting-edge brands will jointly promote consumer education and promote market expansion. It is suggested to focus on the rich product matrix and diversified consumption scenarios, and the absolute leader of pre blending in the expansion of consumer groups Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) .
Dairy products: the increase of raw milk price is slowing down, and it is expected that the raw milk price will remain high in 2022. On the subdivided track, the growth rate of normal temperature white milk slowed down, pasteurized milk and yogurt still grew rapidly, the scale of cheese market increased, and the industry was booming.
It is suggested to focus on the layout of cheese growth track, low-temperature track and high-end normal temperature milk, focusing on Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) / Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) / Bright Dairy & Food Co.Ltd(600597) / New Hope Dairy Co.Ltd(002946) / Mengniu Dairy, etc.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic situation; Macroeconomic downside risk; Food safety issues; Intensified market competition; The price increase was less than expected
(Debang securities)
