On Friday, the focus of the A-share market moved down rapidly in the shock, especially the gem index fell 2.27% due to the intraday diving of the core heavyweight Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . However, on the one hand, the transaction amount remains above trillion yuan, indicating that the willingness to trade funds is still strong; On the other hand, traditional Chinese medicine stocks, retail stocks and other varieties are repeatedly active, indicating that hot money is still active.
It seems that in the eyes of hot money, they believe that there are still no systematic risks and trading opportunities in a shares.
trading hot spots are difficult to stop the downward pressure of core track stocks
On the current disk trend, the logical starting point of institutional funds and hot money is slightly different.
For institutional funds represented by public funds, their heavy positions in core track stocks, such as lithium batteries, automobile electrification and other main lines, have reached a high valuation after being pulled up some time ago. At this time, if there is no more than expected information, some profit chips with buoyant mentality will be cashed out, resulting in selling pressure. This is the case with the sharp decline of lithium battery stocks on Friday.
For trading hot money, their logical starting point is to dare to attack and look for trading opportunities as long as there is no systemic risk. In contrast, the macroeconomic and monetary policy environment on which the current A-share market is backed does not appear black swan information. On the contrary, in terms of liquidity, there is still continuous positive information. Therefore, hot money still dare to attack actively. In Friday’s disk, they strengthened the promotion of traditional Chinese medicine and retail, making such stocks one of the few popular varieties of A-Shares on Friday.
However, the weight coefficient of such stocks is low, and the industrial recognition is low, which is difficult to resonate with the market. Therefore, such stocks will only produce structural opportunities, which is difficult to produce a substantive driving force for the index. As a result, the funds of funds and other institutions shrink the defense line and adjust the core track stocks, which will promote the downward trend of the index.
loose liquidity and strong buoyancy make there little room for short-term adjustment
Because of this, the adjustment pressure of the A-share market is, but it should not be exaggerated. First, the frequent attack of trading hot money shows that they believe that there is no systemic risk in A-Shares and the liquidity is relatively loose. Reviewing the trend of the A-share market in recent years, it can be said that there is a logic that the market has a consensus, that is, the medium and short-term trend of the stock market is often a barometer of liquidity. As long as liquidity is loose or has a loose trend, there will be no continuous adjustment trend in the trend of the whole A-share market. Moreover, each liquidity easing measure will bring a wave of recovery market, just like the low points at the end of 2012 and 2018, accompanied by the information of liquidity improvement. In contrast, the current liquidity of the A-share market is not only the reduction of reserve requirement, but also the reduction of market interest rate, as well as the continuous reverse repurchase by the central bank. Therefore, the liquidity of A-share is optimistic, and it should not be too cautious about the short-term A-share market trend.
Second, there will still be more than expected information in incremental industries. This involves the future trend of core track stocks with heavy institutional capital positions. As mentioned above, recently, it is mainly because the core track stocks lack more than expected information, so the adjustment pressure of such stocks has increased. However, as the industries in which the core track stocks are located are incremental industries of China’s current macro-economy, including comprehensive energy industry with green power as the core, automobile electrification (Intelligence), metauniverse, biomedicine and other industries, the deductive trend of these industries is very optimistic, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, The power of trends often means that there will still be more than expected information in the future. Moreover, these incremental industries are also the key support direction of China’s industrial policy, and the future industrial policy is expected to exceed expectations. Therefore, the unexpected information of these core track stocks will still appear, but it has not yet arrived. In other words, for incremental industries with clear industrial trend, the information exceeding expectations will only be late and will not be absent.
It can be seen that although the short-term A-share market has been adjusted, the adjustment range should not be too exaggerated, not only because the super expected information of core track stocks is expected to appear at any time, but also because the liquidity environment is still expected to weaken the selling pressure and hold up the valuation of A-shares. Therefore, in operation, it is still appropriate to strengthen the tracking of core track stocks.
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(surging News)
