Today (December 24), the three major stock indexes of A-Shares opened slightly higher. After the initial shock, the stock index gradually fell, showing a pulsed downward pattern, with a panoramic view of the weak. From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more and rose less, white horse consumption showed strong performance, and the four tracks of food and beverage, agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishing, traditional Chinese medicine, scenic spots and tourism showed relatively resistance to decline.
Guosheng Securities said that under the stock market, the main trend plate is silent, and short-term emotional speculation is prevalent; The short-term mood ebbs and the main trend plate returns. It is suggested to control positions and grasp the allocation opportunities of new energy, auto parts, semiconductors and large consumption in a balanced manner.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let's see what themes are available for reference.
[theme I] food and beverage
Bohai Securities believes that we should get rid of the disturbance of short-term information, look at long and long, and grasp the current layout time point. From monthly data, we think that Baijiu is still in operation cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control. And the fine products of public products have already opened the price raising cycle. We need to pay close attention to the market acceptance after the price increase.
On the plate side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, the upstream cost pressure may be relieved in the middle of next year. At present, the beer sector still has a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that the Baijiu industry is transforming from the first growth stage to the second growth stage. In 2021, the fundamentals of the industry continued to be stable, and the upward trend of the sector in 2022 was more clear, but it was still a structural opportunity. Among them, the high-end price will continue to grow steadily in the future, which can be configured for a long time, with emphasis on Maotai; It is suggested to focus on grasping the general trend of sub high-end and continue to be optimistic about the regional sub high-end leaders with solid foundation and continuous upgrading.
In addition, demand has not yet recovered, and small food stocks have received market attention. The overall demand of the popular products sector is still weak. The social zero catering data in November turned negative year-on-year, and the recovery is lower than expected compared with 2019. Near the end of the year, the market began to prefer small food stocks with low attention. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to continue to focus on leading enterprises with reasonable valuation, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and so on. And sub industries with large industry space and low penetration, focusing on Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) .
Cinda securities mentioned that the market pattern of high-end liquor is stable, Maotai has actively introduced price control measures, which has achieved remarkable results, reduced the risk of public opinion, and the market's expectation of price increase has increased. Although the price control of Maotai liquor has brought down its wholesale price and put pressure on the price of 1000 yuan, with the release of the price increase signal of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao, we believe that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will take a more active stand at 1000 yuan in 2022, promote the further improvement of brand image and accelerate the release of performance. Due to the limited production capacity of high-quality sauce wine, the sauce wine fever has entered the half-time break, and the secondary high-end Luzhou flavor still enjoys the expansion bonus and development opportunity period.
For leisure food, the sector experienced channel changes and weak consumption in 2021. We believe that Q2 is the darkest moment, and Q3 performance has generally shown a recovery trend. Looking forward to next year, after two years of contrarian store acquisition, the operation of single store end next year is still very important, which is expected to focus on the performance results of accelerating the opening of stores in the past two years. Some enterprises mainly facing the business supermarket channel actively adjust in the face of the channel reform. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance reversal brought by the channel reform. At the same time, the head brands of individual subdivided categories have raised prices this year, and it is suggested to pay attention to the scissors difference between the price increase and the price increase of raw materials. []
[Theme 2] agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that after the first bottoming in this cycle, the breeding end has been obviously under pressure, and the trend of capacity removal has been established. However, the increase in the supplement column brought by the recent price rebound and the improvement in the breeding efficiency brought by the increase in the proportion of binary high breeding sows will delay the bottom of pig prices. Recently, the plate has entered the downward range again after the rebound, and the bottom building mood is relatively strong. It is suggested to pay attention to two types of enterprises: one is to select head breeding enterprises with cost advantages and abundant cash flow; Second, after the second bottom of pig prices, it is suggested to pay attention to small and beautiful growth targets with comparative advantages in capacity reserves and valuation.
In addition, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities mentioned that benefiting from the promotion of policies, the seed industry is expected to usher in a new transgenic era. We maintain the positive rating of the seed industry, especially the investment opportunities of the high boom corn seed industry, and suggest paying attention to the accelerated implementation of policies. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with excellent variety combination and continuous growth of performance, and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) with leading advantages in transgenic R & D and variety layout. Pay attention to Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) .
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that for pig breeding, the short-term production capacity shows a trend of de industrialization. In the first half of next year, the pig price may hit the bottom twice, and the market value of listed pig enterprises fell to the historical bottom, so as to grasp the investment opportunities on the left side of the plate; The long-term benefits are concentrated on a large scale, and there are still overtaking opportunities for the capacity expansion of listed pig enterprises.
In addition, in the meat and poultry industry, the upstream supply pressure of white chicken is still large, the industrial chain is in deep loss or forced to reduce the upstream production capacity, pay attention to the production capacity adjustment rhythm of chicken farms, the long-term industrial chain extension is expected to bring valuation remodeling, and pay attention to the integration leader; The upstream production capacity of yellow chicken has shrunk significantly, and it is expected to continue to pick up in 2022, so as to grasp the growth dividend of chilled products for a long time.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the seasonal peak consumption season boosts demand, but the estimation of frozen meat inventory is still large. Since October, the proportion of some pigs in the price rebound has increased marginally, and the proportion of pigs in the market is heavy. Large pigs are still digesting. If the short-term rebound is too high, it may delay the pace of capacity removal. It is necessary to focus on the rebound height of short-term pig price and the productivity sentiment of farmers. []
[Theme 3] scenic spots and tourism
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) mentioned that the digital transformation of the cultural tourism industry has accelerated and iterative innovation has been reborn. The baptism of the epidemic forced the text travel industry to accelerate the digital transformation, generate new formats in combination with the new online economy, and develop immersive, one-stop and personalized tourism products. Rural tourism and ice and snow tourism are different from traditional tourism forms. They have a broad market and great development potential, and may become a new increment of the tourism industry in the future. In order to cope with the consumption change after the epidemic, cultural and tourism products need to carry out effective iterative innovation, improve service quality, accumulate and wait for the complete recovery of the cultural and tourism industry.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) pointed out that for the hotel industry, we continue to be optimistic about the optimization of supply pattern and leading growth. Since this year, although several rounds of epidemics have led to a lower than expected pace of industrial recovery, the leading enterprises have continued to open stores rapidly, single hotels have continued to be cleared, and the logic of supply pattern optimization has been continuously verified. Looking forward to 2022, there is still much room for improvement in China's hotel chain rate and industry concentration compared with developed countries. We continue to be optimistic about the growth brought by the opening of leading stores against the trend and the upgrading of medium and high-end. The improvement of the epidemic in Europe is also expected to reduce the drag of overseas business on performance.
In addition, for tourism and scenic spots, the recovery trend remains unchanged or there are opportunities for reversal. With several rounds of epidemic disturbance since June, the progress of China's tourism recovery has shown a trend of high before and low after. Inter provincial travel and long-distance travel are still limited by epidemic prevention policies, and the performance of sector companies is generally under pressure. Looking forward to 2022, even if the demand side fluctuation is still inevitable, we still maintain confidence in the recovery trend. At the same time, the change of epidemic prevention policy is expected to ferment, which is also expected to give birth to the reversal opportunity of the plate market ahead of the fundamentals.
Dongguan Securities said that the industry will still be disturbed by the scattered epidemic in the short term, but China's strict prevention attitude towards covid-19 virus can effectively control the spread of the virus. There is no need to be too pessimistic about covid-19 virus and its variants. With the improvement of covid-19 vaccination and the promotion of therapeutic drug research and development, the influenza trend of covid-19 remains unchanged, The leisure service industry is expected to recover slowly in 2022. In the long run, the epidemic forced the industry to reshuffle and reduce supply. After the epidemic was basically controlled, the prosperity of the industry is expected to accelerate under the action of demand recovery. []
[Topic 4] traditional Chinese medicine
AVIC securities mentioned that based on the judgment of short-term fluctuation and repeated uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic situation, it can continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of covid-19 prevention and control industry chain in the short term, including covid-19 oral drugs, vaccines and antibodies, as well as the listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and control drug supply chain. At the same time, with the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, the trend of market consolidation and recovery has been established, and the market focus may focus on the sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the undervalued value with consumption attribute, and the growth and valuation of traditional Chinese medicine will dynamically match to a reasonable range in a period of time, At the time point when the valuation switching is gradually approaching, the advance layout needs to pay particular attention to the marginal improvement and the sustainability of growth.
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that policy support is the most favorable factor for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry. Demand side, population aging, chronic diseases, cancer incidence rate rise, disease spectrum changes, as well as residents' income level raise health awareness, consumption upgrading and other factors to support the demand for Chinese medicine industry healthy and stable growth. On the policy side, the state vigorously supports and promotes the development of traditional Chinese medicine, promotes the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, and adheres to the equal emphasis on traditional Chinese and Western medicine, which has brought policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. The unique advantage of "preventing disease" brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry came out of the low point and showed marginal improvement. Although the single quarter performance growth rate decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2021 due to the weakening of the low base effect, it remained in the trend of recovery channel as a whole. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has obvious absolute valuation advantages. "Policy + consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages" jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that with the encouragement of top-level design and policies, the traditional Chinese medicine market will still show a steady growth trend. However, in recent years, under the background that the traditional Chinese medicine industry has also been strengthened by policies and is about to enter national mining, the reshuffle of the traditional Chinese medicine industry has been irreversible. Facing the coming great changes in the industry, it is imperative for traditional Chinese medicine enterprises to accelerate their diversified transformation. In the transformation direction, the synergy effect of the transformation health field is the best and the effect is the fastest. The most direct benefit is that traditional Chinese medicine enterprises with strong brand build a large health industry through brand extension. []
