After the price rises of mass products such as soy sauce, melon seeds, paper towel, edible salt, vinegar, soymilk and noodles, the price of Baijiu rises and spreads to yellow wine recently.
On the evening of December 23, Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) announced that in view of the sharp rise in raw material prices and labor costs and the continuous rise in enterprise production and operation costs, in order to improve Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) brand strength and competitiveness, the company decided to adjust the prices of some products, with a maximum increase of 20%.
Previously, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , gujinggong, Baijiu and other liquor enterprises have announced that the price of products has risen to varying degrees. For the "king of Baijiu" Moutai, a broker analysis shows that Moutai's market environment, competitive structure and market management reform are all different from the past, and the timing of the price increase is also ripe for Moutai. Under this background, most of the securities companies are optimistic about the investment opportunities of the Baijiu plate in 2022, and focus on high-end and sub high end baijiu.
raise the price after two and a half years
Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) announced that in view of the sharp rise in raw material prices and labor costs and the continuous rise in enterprise production and operation costs, in order to improve Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) brand strength and competitiveness, the company decided to adjust the prices of some products, and the product price adjustment plan will be implemented from January 20, 2022.
Among them, the price increase range of blue and white drunk series is 10% - 20%; The price increase range of pure (alcohol) series is 4.65% - 12%; The price increase range of Treasury series is 5% - 15%. The total sales of the above products in 2020 is RMB 334 million, with an average gross profit margin of 44.37%, accounting for 25.7% of the total revenue in 2020.
The price of fruit wine, relief, color varieties, champion Red and other products increased by 5% - 20%. The total sales of the above products in 2020 is 359 million yuan, with an average gross profit margin of 29.88%, accounting for 27.6% of the total revenue in 2020.
It is not difficult to find that the sales of products involved in the price increase account for more than 50% of Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) revenue. Once the price increase is successful, it will undoubtedly be good for the performance. However, Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) said that the price adjustment of some products may have a certain impact on the market share of the company's products, coupled with the rising cost factors, so the price adjustment of products does not necessarily increase the company's profits, reminding investors to pay attention to investment risks.
Yellow wine is yellow wine bottled wine, yellow wine, small wine and Baijiu, which are the main business of Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) . In the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.098 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.75%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 128 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.53%.
As the core market of rice wine sales, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai achieved sales revenue of 258 million yuan, 328 million yuan, 102 million yuan and 352 million yuan respectively in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other regions during the reporting period, with a year-on-year increase of 24.42%, 20.18%, 26.92% and 32.26%.
The company has raised prices five times in recent five years. The last price increase was in May 2019, with a price increase range of about 8%.
As of December 23, Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) closed at RMB 12.18, with the latest market value of RMB 11.1 billion.
recent Baijiu enterprises welcome price rise
Before Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) , the liquor consumption volume was much higher than that of yellow wine baijiu. Recently, the related enterprises have been raising their prices, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568)
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiannanchun, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , internal ginseng wine, Xijiu, etc. all issued price increase notices.
On December 21, Bozhou Gujing Sales Co., Ltd. issued a notice, and Bozhou Gujing Sales Co., Ltd. decided to adjust the group purchase transaction price of raw pulp and products in Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) year. According to tianyancha data, Bozhou Gujing Sales Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) .
On December 14, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. issued the "notice on the proposed price adjustment of 52 degree Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ liquor (time-honored brand) 2018 edition". From now on, the terminal price dual track system will be implemented for the 2018 version of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ wine (time-honored brand); The terminal guidance price is proposed to rise by 40 yuan per 500ml in the plan and 388 yuan per 500ml out of the plan.
On December 15, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Guojiao Liquor Sales Co., Ltd. issued the notice on adjusting the 52 degree Guojiao classic terminal channel price system and the notice on adjusting the 38 degree Guojiao classic terminal channel price system. The notice shows that the planned quota supply price of 52 degree Guojiao 1573 classic packaging (500ml * 6) terminal channel is increased by 70 yuan / bottle, and the unplanned quota supply price is adjusted to 1080 yuan / bottle.
On December 13, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) issued the price adjustment notice, and adjusted the price system of collection shede series products since January 1, 2022: 38 / 42 / 52% vol taste · shede (Collection), the ex factory price was increased by 30 yuan / bottle, the dynamic sales margin remained unchanged, and the recommended retail price of the terminal was adjusted to 819 yuan / bottle; The ex factory price of 52% vol wisdom · shede (Collection) is increased by 50 yuan / bottle, the dynamic sales margin remains unchanged, and the recommended retail price of the terminal is adjusted to 1199 yuan / bottle.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) also recently announced that the unplanned price of the 52 degree eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) was increased from 999 yuan / bottle to 1089 yuan / bottle, and the planned price of 889 yuan / bottle remained unchanged. According to the 3:2 ratio of internal and external contract volume in the general five-year plan, the ex factory price of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will be increased from 889 yuan / bottle to 969 yuan / bottle, an increase of about 9%.
The unlisted Xijiu company also announced recently that the company had raised the prices of all products simultaneously on December 12, including the increase of 50 yuan / bottle for Xijiu cellar · 1988, 100 yuan / bottle for Junpin Xijiu and 200 yuan / bottle for Xijiu beast head.
is the time ripe for Maotai to raise prices?
When the main liquor companies have been raising prices, when Moutai, the "king of Baijiu", has raised the price, what has become the focus of the market?
Recently, Jinsong of Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) food and beverage analysis normal school published a publication entitled "how feasible is Maotai price increase when people's mind rises?" According to the Research Report of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , it is ripe to raise the price of Feitian Maotai, the main single product of Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) .
Fan Jinsong said in his report that in recent years, the leading and impressive range of whisky and red wine and strong aroma Baijiu has been increasing. As a leader of Maotai flavor, Moutai should also have the basis for raising prices. At present, Maotai's market environment, competition pattern and the management's market-oriented reform determination are different from the past. The time is ripe to raise the price of the main single product Feitian Maotai.
It analyzes the price increase opportunity of Maotai from four aspects:
(1) When the total amount is limited, food and beverage companies generally adopt the vertical playing method. Since November this year, whisky prices have been intensively adjusted, among which high-end wine and old wine have increased significantly. It can also be seen from the price adjustment of Huanghelou cigarette and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wine that the price limit of high-end tobacco and wine in China may have been loosened recently.
(2) From the history of Maotai's price increase, the current market environment is mature: the channel share of each price increase in Maotai since 2010 is about 50%. In the past two years, the scissors difference between Feitian's wholesale price and ex factory price has continued to grow, and the channel share has been close to 70%.
(3) The price increase can open the position with high-end competitive products, and is also conducive to the price belt of 1000 yuan. From the external environment, Maotai flavor competitive products are mostly priced close to the retail price of Maotai. If the price is not raised, it may damage the brand strength. From the perspective of its own product structure, Maotai lacks core large single products with a price of 1000 yuan. This year, the pace of Maotai 1935 launch is slower than expected, or the price may need to be adjusted to straighten out the price band.
(4) The new chairman is determined to forge ahead and has strong determination to market-oriented reform. Since September, Maotai's market-oriented reform measures have been taken frequently with remarkable results. In the future, the means of administrative intervention is expected to gradually turn into a market-oriented and legal system, and the most effective way is to narrow the large price difference between retail price and real wholesale price.
Fan Jinsong further pointed out that on the one hand, the price increase will significantly increase profits, on the other hand, it is also conducive to Maotai channel reform and market-oriented operation, straighten out the price belt for Maotai 1935 new products and contribute to the second growth curve. In addition, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) as a leader has a significant role in promoting the Baijiu industry. If the price increases smoothly, it will open up price space for other high-end and high-end Baijiu brands, and enhance channel confidence. The industry will enter the business cycle of increasing inventories, and next year, there will be rare opportunities for industrial investment.
securities optimistic next year Baijiu plate
The investment opportunities for the whole Baijiu sector will be more favorable next year.
Wanlian securities research report said that Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and Xijiu have raised prices one after another, and the cost of the supply side is gradually transmitted to the downstream demand side. The "unpacking order" of Maotai has been determined to land on the channel dealers, and the optimization of retail policy is expected to increase the sales coverage of Maotai. Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu demand core factors remain unchanged, the industry development for a long time to good, high-end liquor growth certainty, the second high-end liquor elasticity highlights, high-end, secondary high-end Baijiu plate has a good investment opportunities.
Baijiu Securities believes Baijiu industry is still at a high level, and its development logic is clear. After a long and long time correction, the stock price has entered a reasonable interval. The three quarter performance and the popular liquor are generally in line with expectations. The second high-end is not lacking in bright spots. The catalytic events will drive the sector to start the recovery market. "We look at the Baijiu plate in 2022, focusing on investment opportunities of high-end and secondary high-end Baijiu".
According to Caixin securities, the fundamentals of Baijiu are still steady next year, and the growth of high-end liquor is still high and the foundation of performance acceleration is high. The second high-end marginal rate of decline is still strong. But some of the solid foundation Baijiu enterprises can maintain a higher growth rate. The regional leaders are expected to show their growth performance on the basis of strengthening channels and product operation capabilities and optimizing the incentive mechanism. It believes that Baijiu plate investment can be based on the allocation of highly deterministic varieties based on the growth of individual stocks to increase revenue.
For the market worried that the consumption tax reform will cause the liquor enterprise to shrink profits, the securities company believes that the top famous Baijiu brand is very strong, the demand is strong and the supply is relatively scarce, the channel price difference is big and the liquor enterprises have strong voice for the channel, the winery profit is limited by the tax policy change, but it does not rule out that the Baijiu should take some time to implement the strategy. The possibility of short-term disturbance on the profit side. Enterprises with weak brand power and weak channel bargaining power need to bear a certain proportion of the new tax burden, and the profit margin is under downward pressure.
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(China Fund News)
