Today (December 24), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened slightly higher. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the Shanghai index fluctuated lower, while the trend of the gem index was also poor. In the afternoon, the market trend continued to be depressed, and the risk aversion gradually increased. Finally, the three major stock indexes closed at the negative line.
In this regard, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that looking back at the recent market performance, the plate rotation speed is fast, and even the "one-day tour" market occurs frequently, which is difficult to operate. Therefore, in the current strategy, it is recommended to see more and move less, focusing on the undervalued sector. In addition, as 2021 draws to a close, the market may be able to open the industry valuation improvement expectations with clear performance context, and pay appropriate attention to individual stocks with clear growth expectations.
At the same time, Guosheng Securities said that under the stock market, the main trend plate is silent, and short-term emotional speculation is prevalent; The short-term mood ebbs and the main trend plate returns. It is suggested to control positions and grasp the allocation opportunities of new energy, auto parts, semiconductors and large consumption in a balanced manner.
plate:
I. food and beverage
Bohai Securities believes that we should get rid of the disturbance of short-term information, look at long and long, and grasp the current layout time point. From monthly data, we think that Baijiu is still in operation cycle and the price cycle of high-end Baijiu will be extended due to price control. And the fine products of public products have already opened the price raising cycle. We need to pay close attention to the market acceptance after the price increase.
On the plate side, it is still recommended to focus on the more high-end Baijiu, and change the space with time, and pay attention to the secondary high-end market. In terms of mass products, the upstream cost pressure may be relieved in the middle of next year. At present, the beer sector still has a relatively better competition pattern and smoother pressure transmission, followed by dairy products. The rise of raw milk in the upstream of dairy products has tended to ease. On the basis of good demand and early price increase, the performance is expected to accelerate the release. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Cinda securities mentioned that the market pattern of high-end liquor is stable, Maotai has actively introduced price control measures, which has achieved remarkable results, reduced the risk of public opinion, and the market's expectation of price increase has increased. Although the price control of Maotai liquor has brought down its wholesale price and put pressure on the price of 1000 yuan, with the release of the price increase signal of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Laojiao, we believe that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will take a more active stand at 1000 yuan in 2022, promote the further improvement of brand image and accelerate the release of performance. Due to the limited production capacity of high-quality sauce wine, the sauce wine fever has entered the half-time break, and the secondary high-end Luzhou flavor still enjoys the expansion bonus and development opportunity period.
For leisure food, the sector experienced channel changes and weak consumption in 2021. We believe that Q2 is the darkest moment, and Q3 performance has generally shown a recovery trend. Looking forward to next year, after two years of contrarian store acquisition, the operation of single store end next year is still very important, which is expected to focus on the performance results of accelerating the opening of stores in the past two years. Some enterprises mainly facing the business supermarket channel actively adjust in the face of the channel reform. It is suggested to pay attention to the performance reversal brought by the channel reform. At the same time, the head brands of individual subdivided categories have raised prices this year, and it is suggested to pay attention to the scissors difference between the price increase and the price increase of raw materials.
In addition, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that near the end of the year, the market began to prefer small food stocks with low attention. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to continue to focus on leading enterprises with reasonable valuation, such as Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) and so on. And sub industries with large industry space and low penetration, focusing on Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) .
II. Retail
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that from the social consumption data in November, the overall social consumption growth rate is weak, which will suppress the recovery of the retail sector in the short term. At the same time, given that the recurrence of the epidemic has a great impact on offline stores of retail terminals, we believe that there will be some pressure on the sprint at the end of 2021. To sum up, it still needs policy stimulus to boost consumer demand, and it still takes time for the overall improvement of the demand side. We suggest that investors may wish to wait and see in the short term, wait for new catalysts for consumer goods, such as policy support, and then cut into the retail sector.
Looking forward to 2022, Shanghai Securities pointed out that retail may continue to present a differentiated market, look for structural highlights and look forward to bottom recovery. In terms of investment suggestions, investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues the strong recovery trend and high outlook since the beginning of the year. We continue to recommend Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , and we suggest paying attention to Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Professional chain convenience stores and encrypted exhibition stores provide convenience, superimpose business model expansion and jointly resist the impact of new business forms. It is recommended to pay attention to Chengdu Hongqi Chain Co.Ltd(002697) ; In the traditional and new retail field, the business format of warehousing members is in the ascendant. It is suggested to pay attention to HEMA (Alibaba) and Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) that actively layout the business format of warehousing stores.
Investment main line two: new retail business of the electricity supplier, live broadcasting and shop self seeding rapid development, and suggest to pay attention to the tiktok electricity supplier and Alibaba. The Matthew effect of community group buying is getting stronger. It is suggested to pay attention to meituan and fight more.
Investment main line 3: the background of common prosperity, the current situation of superimposed traffic peaking, and the fierce competition among Internet enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with the advantages of supply chain.
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