Consumer sector: overall recovery of prosperity, focusing on food and beverage and household appliances.
The overall prosperity of the consumer sector has warmed up. In terms of total consumption, the total social retail sales continued to pick up, the retail price of commodities rebounded slightly, and the consumption of cultural office supplies, beverages and other items improved significantly. Baijiu Baijiu is booming, high-end liquor prices remain high, Moutai’s price is down, liquor production growth is picking up, and milk and China’s infant formula prices are rising. In terms of light industry manufacturing, in November, the year-on-year growth rate of textile, clothing and apparel exports fell, the total timber index increased slightly, the spot price of polyurethane increased month on month, and the price of pulp increased month on month; In agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the prices of piglets and pork increased month on month, the prices of live pigs decreased month on month, and the prices of broiler seedlings decreased month on month; The price index of traditional Chinese medicine continued to rise, the price of vitamins decreased as a whole, and the prices of lysine and methionine fell month on month; In terms of automobiles, in the first week of December, the daily average of wholesale and retail sales decreased year-on-year; In terms of Commerce and trade, Yiwu small commodity price index increased slightly month on month; In terms of household appliances, the growth rate of air conditioning sales picked up in October, and the decline in the growth rate of TV and refrigerator sales narrowed.
Growth sector: the boom continues to differentiate, focusing on consumer electronics and media
The prosperity of the growth plate continues to differentiate. The consumer electronics sector has recovered recently. On the one hand, China’s mobile phone shipments in November increased by 19.2% year-on-year and 5.14% month on month. After the high increase in shipments in October, the mobile phone industry chain continued to recover. On the other hand, under the long development trend of yuancosmic industry, AR / VR equipment has a broad market space as a traffic inlet. In the semiconductor industry, the storage price has stabilized and stopped falling in the past two weeks. The prices of DRAM memory and nand64gb flash memory have increased by 1.56% and 3.10% respectively in the past two weeks; According to the International Semiconductor Industry Association (semi) predicts that in the fourth quarter, the growth rate of semiconductor equipment sales will rise again, and the high prosperity of the industry will continue. In the media, the box office revenue and film viewing people have improved significantly in the past two weeks. Since December, many new films have been released, which has helped the recovery of the film and television industry. The mobile game market has strong performance. So far in 2021, the global revenue of eight mobile games has exceeded US $1 billion, breaking the historical record. Electric In terms of equipment, the growth rate of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation accelerated in November, but the overall price of photovoltaic industry chain has been callback, the high price of silicon material has fallen, the price of polysilicon chip has continued to decline, and the upstream price game atmosphere continues. In terms of lithium battery materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials has accelerated, the price of artificial graphite cathode materials is stable, and the prices of electrolyte and lithium hexafluorophosphate have remained unchanged for more than a month.
Large financial sector: Boom differentiation, pay attention to banks
In November, the sales area of commercial housing increased, and the national housing boom index continued to decline. The growth rate of housing price index continued to decline. The interest rate of individual housing loans continued to fall, and the transaction area of commercial housing fell in the past two weeks. Land transaction area and transaction premium rate rise simultaneously. The land acquisition area remained low year-on-year. In November, the social finance and credit data showed an upward trend, and the trend of bottoming and stabilizing was obvious. The short-term interest rate fell rapidly after rising, and the capital side remained relatively loose. Premium income continued to fall in October. The balance of margin trading decreased slightly, and the stock exchange took the lead in rising and then falling.
Cycle plate: the prosperity is divided, focusing on iron and steel, chemical industry and architectural decoration
The boom of the cyclical plate is divided. Overall, as of December 21, the commodity price index continued to fall. By industry, the spot price of thermal coal has fallen in the past two weeks, the futures price of coking coal and coke has risen, and the port coal inventory level has continued to fall; China’s iron ore prices have rebounded sharply, rebar prices have fluctuated upward, crude steel output has increased, steel inventory level has fallen, and industry demand has warmed up; Overseas crude oil prices fell slightly, European natural gas prices soared, the number of crude oil rigs in the United States increased, and commercial crude oil inventories fell slightly; Industrial metal prices rose and fell. In the past two weeks, aluminum, zinc and lead prices rose more, nickel prices fell month on month, and copper and tin prices remained volatile; The price of gold in precious metals rose slightly; In terms of energy metals, lithium prices accelerated upward and cobalt prices continued to rise; The chemical commodity index rose slightly, the price of polyester in chemicals remained stable, the price of PTA and polymerized MDI rebounded, and the price of PVC and chemical fertilizer raw materials fell; In terms of building materials, the cement price index continued to decline in the past two weeks, and the float glass ex factory index rose and fell; In November, the scale of local government bond financing increased significantly, the steady growth policy was clear, and the outlook of the construction industry is expected to rebound at the bottom; In terms of mechanical equipment, in November, the decline in the growth rate of loader sales narrowed, the growth rate of crane sales continued to decline, the growth rate of excavator sales fell again, and the start-up time picked up slightly; In terms of shipping, in the past two weeks, China’s and international dry bulk cargo indexes have dropped significantly, and China’s export container freight rate index has fluctuated. Among them, CCFI composite index and US west route index have increased, and European route index has decreased month on month.
Risk tip: the prosperity index of some industries fails to fully describe the prosperity of the industry, the economy changes too fast, resulting in the lag of the prosperity index, the deviation of the understanding of the industry prosperity, the recurrence of covid-19 epidemic, etc
