The development of personal insurance channels is in trouble, and the third-party channels are expected to fill the vacancy. Under the K-type differentiation, China's traditional personal insurance channels fell into a downturn as a whole due to channel reform, supply and demand mismatch and other reasons. The brokerage channel made up for many pain points such as the uneven quality of personal insurance agents, single sales products, information asymmetry, conflict of interest and so on to a certain extent with the advantages of rich product matrix, excellent Internet traffic and closer to customer demand. At the same time, bancassurance channel relies on a large number of customer resources of the bank and gives full play to the advantages of "financial product retailer", which is expected to provide suggestions from the perspective of customer asset allocation and form customer stickiness. Compared with the development history of life insurance brokerage channels in the United States and the United Kingdom, with the diversification of customers' insurance demand and the improvement of their demand for complex annuity insurance and endowment insurance, they rely more on professional insurance brokers who can provide many consulting services and products, and insurance brokers may usher in rapid growth. In terms of bancassurance, compared with the experience of Taiwan and France, although China can not achieve the financial environment of "mixed operation", with the increase of residents' future wealth management, the demand for pension products and the possible preferential pension tax policy in the future, it is still expected to drive the rapid increase of the proportion of Bancassurance channel premiums.
The premium of excellent insurance brokerage companies bucked the trend, and the quality of agents, flow drive and customized services are the key. Compared with the sluggish performance of individual insurance premiums of traditional insurance companies this year, Mingya, the leader of Chinese traditional insurance brokerage, and Huize and shuidi, the leader of Internet insurance brokerage, grew against the trend. We believe that the main reasons are: 1) Mingya has solved the pain point of the mismatch between supply and demand by building an objective, neutral and high-quality talent team; 2) Huixuan caters to the needs of young people for online consumption and independent decision-making, carries out content marketing and customized product design with the help of third-party we media drainage; 3) shuidi focuses on the inclusive people of the third and fourth tier, and obtains customers with low-cost online traffic, High cost performance products fit the sinking market. Despite the rapid growth of China's insurance brokers, the proportion is still very low (the channel contribution is only 1.02% in 2019).
The marginal improvement of Bancassurance channels has occurred, and the demand of insurance enterprises, banks and customers resonates to promote the development of channels. Thanks to the change of product structure and the optimization of term structure, the bancassurance channel nbvm of 1h21 insurance enterprises has significantly improved. In addition, insurance companies, banks and customers in bancassurance channels have undergone positive changes to achieve three-point resonance. Insurance enterprise side: with the gradual return of Bancassurance channels to security, the promotion of nbvm makes insurance enterprises strengthen channel investment, such as Ping An, AIA and other insurance enterprises act frequently to make up for the lost market share of individual insurance channels; Bank side: insurance is an important product of the bank's medium income and wealth management business. It has irreplaceable advantages such as fixed income and inheritance. Its long-term characteristics can help customers retain and improve customers' business depth and customer average value; Client: the increased demand for wealth management, "deposit moving" and pension account system are expected to promote the promotion of annuity insurance and pension sales scale in bancassurance channels. We are optimistic about the future development of Bancassurance channels.
Changes in demand and product structure are important factors to promote the development of overseas brokerage and bancassurance channels. Brokerage: overseas insurance brokers are relatively mature, mainly 2B. Among them, the United States is dominated by independent agents and the United Kingdom is dominated by insurance brokers. Their contributions to personal life insurance business are about 50% and 70% respectively, mainly due to the trend of separation of production and marketing, the transformation of product structure to investment products such as annuity and the increase in the demand for independent consultants. Bancassurance: Taking Taiwan and France as examples, their bancassurance channel contributions are about 50% and 65% respectively, and the mixed operation under loose supervision is the catalytic factor in the channel development. However, the decline in interest rates in Taiwan has led to the relocation of deposits and the increase in demand for annuity products. In France, the demand for financial integration services and the growth in demand for savings products have led to the rise in product sales. The fundamental reason is still the change in product demand and the natural advantages of Bancassurance channels in selling savings and annuity products.
Investment suggestion: with the gradual deepening of the reform of individual insurance channels, it will take some time to change the mismatch between the quality of traditional agents and the insurance needs of medium and high net worth people. Traditional insurance enterprises are bound to give up some market share, and the third-party channels are expected to fill the vacancy. We suggest paying attention to the Internet insurance brokerage leader shuidi and Huize, as well as AIA, which has accelerated the layout of Bancassurance channels with the superposition of "optimal agent" competition strategies, and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) which deepened the agent reform and took the lead in implementing the bank side reform.
Risk factors: the deterioration of covid-19 epidemic situation, the unexpected decline of China's economy, the stricter supervision of insurance brokerage business than expected, and the development of pension account system is less than expected
