Research framework of “integration of supply and demand in people’s and freight yards”: This report constructs a new research framework of e-commerce. On the supply side, we divide commodities into four categories according to the degree of standardization and sales mode. Through two scenarios of content and distance, we connect the different needs of “more, faster, better and more economical”, and build a research framework of “integration of supply and demand in people’s and freight yards”. Different from the demand side research emphasized in the traditional framework, we believe that the supply side is an important driving force for the development of the platform. The differences in categories on the supply side require different performance and display methods, resulting in various e-commerce having their own strengths in meeting the different needs of consumers.
goods (supply side): the main driving force for growth. Seizing potential categories is an important opportunity for each platform in the future. The supply side determines the income of a single customer. The richer the categories, the higher the consumption frequency and customer unit price, and then promote the growth of Gmv and income. The potential categories in the supply side determine the future growth space. Commodities are divided into four categories according to the degree of commodity standardization and distribution mode, including non-standard products and distribution Categories with higher proportion have higher growth potential, especially fresh and home decoration categories with large scale and low current e-commerce penetration. Due to differences in modes and genetic endowments, each platform is good at different categories. Generally speaking, marketplace e-commerce is good at non-standard products and self-supporting e-commerce is good at standard products. Ali is home furnishing and fresh, Jingdong is eating and drinking tiktok, and many of them are fresh.
site (content and performance): determine the user’s shopping experience, in which the content scene affects the pre purchase decision-making, and the logistics performance affects the post purchase timeliness experience. The improvement of the content scene is mainly due to the popularity of higher media forms such as short video and live broadcast and the resulting more prosperous KOL content ecology, which has a better display experience and provides more consumption decision-making information. The improvement of performance is mainly due to the long-term market Reach the popularity of logistics and minute level real-time distribution the next day. With the improvement of more advanced display technology and logistics distribution methods, e-commerce has greatly narrowed the experience gap compared with offline. From the tiktok perspective, the short video platform represented by jitter is stronger than the content experience. The Jingdong and the US group have built stronger logistics moat.
People (demand side): “more, faster and better province” is the eternal pursuit of consumers, “province” is the most basic demand, “how fast and better” belongs to consumption upgrading. The rise of the new model takes the lead in breaking through the “province”, and the forms of achievement are different. The “province” obtained by marketplace e-commerce relying on traffic faces certain constraints. The “province” achieved by improving efficiency is more sustainable. “More” It refers to a million level long tail merchant with a large variety of commodities and unique supply side of Taobao and idle fish. “Fast” refers to fast delivery, which reflects the advantages of the distribution end. E-commerce with self built performance networks such as JD and meituan have great advantages. “Good” means good quality and good experience. Tmall is the “second official website” of the brand, and its unique advantages are high-quality users and the business idea of “customer first”. It is difficult for a single platform to meet the needs of “more, faster, better and more economical” at the same time, and matrix is the better solution.
Investment suggestion: we think it is necessary to compare the competitive advantages of various platforms from the aspects of supply and demand of people and goods yards. On the supply side, some non-standard products of fresh food, home decoration, food and beverage, accessories and home textiles are potential categories. The content scene and performance side are stronger than the live broadcast e-commerce platform of content and the platform of self built logistics system, and have a better consumption experience. On the demand side, different platforms have their own advantages to meet the needs of segmentation. Pinduoduo is better than “province”, Taobao is better than “many”, meituan Jingdong is better than “fast”, and tmall is better than “good”.
Risk tips: 1) repeated outbreaks lead to lower than expected residents’ consumption; 2) Regulatory risks in the Internet industry; 3) E-commerce penetration risk peaked.
