Key investment points
The impact of export improvement + dual control weakened, and the manufacturing boom rebounded
In November, the PMI index closed at 50.1%, up 0.9pct from the previous month, returning to the boom expansion range. Among them, the production index and new order index were 52.0% and 49.4%, up 3.6pct and 0.6pct respectively compared with the previous month, benefiting from the decline of raw material prices and the slowdown of power restriction, and the month on month performance of the production end was better than that of the demand end.
The impact of export improvement + dual control weakened, and industrial production in November was better than market expectations, Industrial added value increased by + 3.8% (previous value + 3.5%) on a year-on-year basis and + 0.37% on a month on month basis after the quarterly adjustment, and manufacturing added value also rebounded slightly. In terms of breakdown, 3C industry maintained a high growth rate, and smartphone production increased by + 8.0% (previous value + 7.4%) on a year-on-year basis; thanks to the alleviation of chip shortage, automobile production increased by – 7.1% on a year-on-year basis (the previous value was – 8.3%), the year-on-year decline continued to narrow, and the output of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year in November. The performance of high-tech industry was still bright, and the industrial added value was + 15.1% (the previous value was + 14.7%). (Note: the previous values refer to October)
From January to November, the cumulative completion of fixed asset investment in manufacturing industry was + 13.7% year-on-year, and + 10.0% year-on-year in November, continuing the improvement trend month by month since July. Based on the judgment of Soochow macro group on the export boom, the alleviation of core shortage and the continuous narrowing of ppi-cpi scissors difference, we believe that the improvement trend of manufacturing investment is structurally sustainable, and the industries with greater improvement include the important downstream of general automation such as transportation equipment, automobile manufacturing and food processing.
Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : monthly data improved and import substitution performed well
The monthly industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) data improved. In November, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 31915 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 27.9% and a month-on-month increase of + 12.1%, mainly due to: 1) the pulling effect of the recovery of manufacturing industry; 2) Under the relief of export boom and core shortage, the short-term recovery momentum of automobile and 3C is strong. From January to November, the cumulative output of industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) was 330000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 49.0%. The overall industry increased significantly compared with 2020.
In terms of product structure, Light and light load products (SCARA, light load six axis, etc.) still maintain a high growth rate. Heavy load six axis benefits from the new demand of photovoltaic, lithium battery, construction machinery and other industries, and also maintains a good growth trend. From the perspective of competition pattern, import substitution continues to accelerate, and domestic leaders Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) And gradually become the forefront of the industry. With the strong demand for lithium battery and photovoltaic in the downstream advanced manufacturing industry and the acceleration of “machine replacement”, the diversified demand will promote the continuous growth of China’s Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry.
CNC machine tools: manufacturing boom rebounds + ten-year renewal cycle, and the boom continues
Machine tools: in November, the output of metal cutting machine tools was 50000, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.6% and a month on month increase of + 13.1%; In November, the output of metal forming machine tools was 21000, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.5% and a month on month increase of + 16.7%. The growth rate of machine tool industry is closely related to the prosperity of manufacturing industry. With the recovery of manufacturing industry and the background of ten-year renewal cycle, the overall prosperity of machine tool industry continues. According to the statistics of the machine tool industry association, the cumulative number of new orders for metal processing machine tools from January to October was + 22.4% year-on-year, and the cumulative number of orders on hand was + 22.4% (the value from January to September was + 20.4%), and the number of orders on hand improved month on month.
Injection molding machine: in November, the shipment volume of Bronte manipulator (for injection molding machine) was 384, with a year-on-year increase of – 76.4%. The main reason is that the company has stopped preferential package sales since October, but the overall situation of the industry has improved due to the recovery of manufacturing industry. At present, the orders of Haitian International, Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) and other major enterprises are still full.
Forklift: in November, the sales volume of forklift was 88000 units, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.0%. The year-on-year growth rate decreased. We judge that it is mainly due to the high base in the same period last year. In the long run, benefiting from manual replacement, the forklift industry will grow steadily, and the trend of electrification + warehousing will further open its growth space.
Investment suggestions: we suggest to pay attention to three main lines: 1) import substitution targets of core parts, recommend [ Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) ] [ Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ] [ Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) ], and pay attention to [ Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ]; 2) The business layout is targeted at the downstream with high prosperity and is expected to smooth the cyclical fluctuation of the industry. It is recommended [ Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ]; 3) The inflection point of the renewal cycle is upward, and the import substitution can be expected under the scale expansion. It is recommended that machine tool enterprises [ Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) ] [ Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) ] [ Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) ].
Risk warning: downstream fixed asset investment is less than expected; Industry cycle fluctuation; The impact of the epidemic continues.
