In December, the bill interest rate "fell endlessly", especially the one-month varieties. According to the data released by Shanghai Stock Exchange, as of December 23, the one-month (1m) state-owned bank note rediscount interest rate has fallen to 0.0061%, continuing to hit a record low; 1m city commercial bank note rediscount interest rate even once surprised the negative interest rate, reaching -0.0159%. In addition, the sharp decline in the interest rate of one-month bills also led to the decline and record low interest rates of two-month (2m) and three-month (3m) bills.
Many analysts interviewed believed that it was normal for the bill interest rate to fall at the end of the month, but the decline at the end of December was quite abnormal. The problem reflected behind is actually the "one and two sides" of the current credit supply. Such a low bill interest rate is difficult to become normal, and it is expected to rebound at the beginning of next month.
two factors caused the bill interest rate to "fall endlessly"
Bill market is not only an important financing channel for small and medium-sized enterprises, but also one of the important ways of credit expansion. In the financial and social financing statistics published by the people's Bank of China every month, bill discount is the main factor, bill financing is included in the statistics of new RMB loans in the current month, while undiscounted bank acceptance bills are included in the statistics of social financing increment in the current month.
In the process of bill circulation, the discount rate of bank notes between banks is usually regarded as the leading price index of bill discount. Since this year, the bill rediscount interest rate has shown a trend of rising first and then falling. At the beginning of the year, the interest rate reached a high of 4.543%, and then continued to fluctuate downward. The bill rediscount interest rate fluctuated downward, driving the downward trend of bill discount price and providing support for reducing the financing cost of small and medium-sized enterprises.
In December, the bill rediscount interest rate went against the normal of "falling at the end of the month and recovering at the beginning of the month", and 1m, 2M and 3M varieties went down all the way, hitting record lows one after another. In particular, after the central bank announced a comprehensive RRR reduction on December 6, the bill interest rate immediately fell on December 7, and the range further deepened. According to the data released by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, as of December 23, before the press release by the reporter, the one-month (1m) state-owned bank note discount rate had fallen to 0.0061%, continuing to hit a record low; 1m city commercial bank note rediscount interest rate even once surprised the negative interest rate, reaching -0.0159%. In addition, the sharp decline in the interest rate of one-month bills also led to the decline and record low interest rates of two-month (2m) and three-month (3m) bills.
As for why the bill interest rate in December was so abnormally "falling and falling", Mingming, deputy director of the Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Research Institute, said in an interview with the securities times that the comprehensive RRR reduction made the funds available to banks more sufficient, which promoted the decline of the bill interest rate to a certain extent, but this was not the main driving factor. The decline of the bill interest rate was mainly due to the following two reasons:
First, the bank's expectation of credit restoration in December is not very good. Therefore, in order to increase the impulse of credit scale, it will increase bill discount to achieve the assessment goal of credit extension; At the same time, in order to avoid "short supply" of bills at the end of the month, the layout of bill collection begins in advance from the middle of the month.
Second, the most obvious performance in this round of bill interest rate decline is 1m variety, which shows that the market still considers that the credit supply may exceed expectations under the tradition of "a good start" in January next year. At that time, the upward situation of bill market interest rate in January this year is likely to reappear, so ticket buying institutions prefer to accept the bill varieties that can expire in January next year, As a result, the supply of 1m notes is far from meeting the demand, and the interest rate of 1m notes is bought at such an extremely low level.
The Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) research report also believes that the record low interest rate in the bill market reflects two consistent expectations of the market - the pessimistic expectation of the bill market participants (mainly banks) on the credit in December and the expectation that the bill interest rate will rise sharply due to the hot credit in January.
"As for why the interest rates of 2M and 3M bills have also been affected, the main reason is that the interest rate of 1m bills has been bought at a low level, and participants have to buy other short-term bills, resulting in a record low for the latter." Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) the research report said.
credit social finance is expected to continue to repair and improve in the first quarter of next year
The pessimistic expectation of the market for the credit supply in December and the high expectation for the "good start" of the credit in January next year are the "one and two sides" of the credit supply expectation. The essence is that the bank manipulates the rhythm of the credit supply under the insufficient effective demand for credit and the acceleration of the wide credit policy.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst, told the securities times that the adjustment of credit scale by financial institutions is a normal phenomenon, and the strength and weakness of credit demand is also a normal market law.
"Some investors are pessimistic about the credit demand during this period. We don't think we need to worry too much. In the past few years, China has experienced several rounds of 'credit easing' or 'credit stabilization', and each round has finally achieved good results, which should not be an exception this time. January is the month of centralized credit supply over the years, and next year will not be an exception, especially in the central government Under the requirement of "appropriately advancing the policy force" put forward by the economic work conference, it is expected that the characteristics of "a good start" of credit next year will be more distinctive. " Zhang Xu said.
Mingming believes that from the current situation of the bill market, the credit growth in December may not be significantly improved, but there is no need to be too pessimistic. After all, from the perspective of policy, the goal of stabilizing growth and enhancing the stability of total credit growth is still very clear, and there has been a decline in the bill interest rate in the middle of the month but a rebound at the end of the month. Therefore, it is estimated that the new credit in December will be about 1.2 trillion yuan, slightly higher than that in the same period last year; In the first quarter of next year, both credit and social finance will continue to repair and improve. It is expected that the new loans in the first quarter will be 8-8.5 trillion, and the year-on-year growth rate of social finance will rise to 10.8%.
Under the background that it is difficult for real estate and infrastructure to shoulder the "banner" of credit expansion in the short term, what fields can the market expect from the "good start" of credit next year? Zhang Xu said that before studying credit expansion, the implicit premise assumption of some views is that infrastructure financing has been "held down", but this statement is easy to be misleading. In fact, the governance principle of local government implicit debt has always been "strictly prohibit new addition, properly resolve the stock and strengthen risk management", which has never simply limited the financing in the field of infrastructure.
"There are solutions to the big problem of credit expansion, and there are more than one solution. One solution is to increase support for key areas and weak links, so that more funds will flow to scientific and technological innovation and green development, and more to small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and new agricultural business entities." Zhang Xu said.
(Securities Times)
