After half a year, the bill market reappeared. Recently, the discount rate of bills has been declining, and the interest rate of some kinds of bills is close to 0. According to the data of Shanghai Stock Exchange, on December 22, the 1-month and 3-month discount rates of state-owned shares and bank notes were 0.0493% and 0.0456% respectively, which decreased significantly compared with the beginning of the month and has maintained this level for several consecutive days.
“At present, the bill market continues to have low interest rates and is seriously inversely linked to the price of funds, which is unprecedented in the history of Chinese bills.” A senior bill practitioner told the first financial reporter that in his opinion, the main reason for this phenomenon lies in the lack of bank consensual credit. As the main tool for regulating credit, in order to meet the credit related assessment at the end of the year, some banks have increased the demand for configuring bills, and the bill market is “hard to find one ticket”, resulting in a sharp decline in interest rates.
However, this situation is not expected to last long. Industry insiders interviewed by the reporter said that it is expected that the trend of low interest rate of bills will improve after the new year, but it still depends on whether the desirable credit can be realized. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday and the reduction of working days in January and February, there is limited room for the rise of bill prices in the future. “Ticket prices are expected to rebound only slightly in the last week of this month, and it is difficult to return to a reasonable range.”
main bill varieties are close to 0 interest rate
In December, the bill interest rate continued to refresh the “bottom line”. Compared with the fluctuation of 1% at the beginning of the month, recently, the rediscount interest rate of 1-month and 3-month national stock silver notes is close to 0.
For example, on December 21, the one month and three-month transfer interest rates of state-owned shares and silver notes were 0.0259% and 0.0450% respectively; Subsequently, on December 22, the one month and three-month national share silver note transfer interest rates continued to weaken, respectively 0.0493% and 0.0456%.
At the same time, the above varieties also led to the decline of the transfer interest rate of 6-month and full-year state-owned stock silver notes. At present, the six-month state-owned shares silver note transfer interest rate is only 0.2060%, while at the beginning of the month, this price was close to 2%; For the full year, the transfer interest rate of national stock silver note was 1.1135%, significantly lower than 2%.
Compared with the price in the money market, the bill interest rate has obviously been upside down. The data of Shibor ( Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) interbank offered rate) on December 23 showed that the one-month Shibor reported 2.409%, the three-month Shibor reported 2.496%, the six-month Shibor reported 2.591% and the one-year Shibor reported 2.738%, all higher than the bill interest rate of the same period.
For the recent sharp decline in bill interest rates, Zhou Haibin, vice president of prankind financial services, told reporters that this was mainly caused by credit supply and demand, weak economy, monetary easing, regulatory policies and other reasons, among which the core factor driving the sharp decline in ticket prices was the imbalance between credit supply and demand.
“On the first day of December, some large banks led the market and led the buying to hoard tickets in advance. Then, with the release of financial data, especially the new loans were less than expected, there were many credit supply gaps, large, medium and small banks successively released quotas, and the discount purchase guidance prices of all banks decreased significantly.” Zhou Haibin said that this directly leads to the extreme phenomenon of falling more and more.
Financial data in November showed that RMB loans increased by 1.27 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 160.5 billion yuan, and the investment scale was lower than the market expectation. In terms of sub sectors, household loans increased by 733.7 billion yuan, including 151.7 billion yuan in short-term loans and 582.1 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 567.9 billion yuan, including short-term loans by 41 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans by 341.7 billion yuan and bill financing by 160.5 billion yuan.
The above senior bill practitioners also told reporters that the key reason for the sharp decline in bill interest rates lies in the lack of satisfactory credit. Further, this is mainly affected by three aspects. First, the reasons for credit structure allocation and venture capital constraints. In particular, although the margin of credit policies such as real estate and platforms is relaxed, the bank needs to correct the previous excessive tightening risk preference, such as project reporting and level-by-level approval, which makes it difficult to keep up with the progress of credit supply in time, and light capital credit assets such as bills have become the focus of allocation.
Secondly, the above-mentioned senior bill practitioners said that some banks will move their investment to the beginning of next year due to annual assessment and other reasons to prepare for a “good start”, resulting in stabilizing the scale with bills and increasing the scale again in the new year; Moreover, the economies of some regions are disturbed by the epidemic, and the bank credit plan is not ideal, which can also be used to support the scale.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) the research report also analyzed that, learning from the lesson of excessive credit in January this year and having to “cry” to sell tickets in the bill market, Bill investors will choose the types of bills that can expire in January next year, which is the market performance of grabbing tickets from early December. “As for why other maturities, especially 2M and 3M bills, have also been affected, mainly because the interest rate of 1m bills has been bought at a low level, and participants have to buy other short-term bills, resulting in a record low for the latter.”
In addition, the trend of low interest rates on bills to some extent reflects the same signal as the “central economic work conference” in December. Zhou Haibin said that at present, China’s economic development is facing multiple pressures, so there is insufficient credit from banks to key national support enterprises such as small and micro enterprises, carbon emission reduction, high technology, new energy and high-end manufacturing, When it is difficult to fill the gap caused by the contraction of real estate and urban investment credit in the short term, bills have become the only credit asset that can quickly and effectively complete the assessment objectives.
interest rates are easy to rise but difficult to fall in January next year
With the continuous decline of bill interest rate, the market is quite concerned about its future trend. Will this low interest rate continue? In this regard, a number of industry insiders interviewed by reporters said that the low interest rate will probably not last long. After all, the beginning of each year is a big month for bank credit, when the demand for notes may decline.
Bill expert Hu Xiao told reporters that the bill market continues to have low interest rates and is not economically sustainable. It is expected to improve after the new year, but it still depends on whether the desirable credit can be realized. With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday and the reduction of working days in January and February, there is limited room for bill prices to rise in the short term.
Zhou Haibin also said that since bill financing, medium and long-term enterprises and residents accounted for a relatively high proportion of new loans in December last year, it had a drag on the new credit supply this month. In addition, the recently released financial data are relatively general, the operation of small and medium-sized enterprises is difficult to improve rapidly, and the credit supply is still insufficient. Ticket prices are expected to rebound only slightly in the last week of this month, but it is difficult to return to a reasonable range.
In addition, in terms of next year, Zhou Haibin believes that the full-term ticket price in January may rebound to more than 2.0%, and in half a year may rebound to more than 1.5%. This is because, referring to past performance, the effect of credit at the beginning of the year is obvious. Banks usually focus on lending in the first quarter, which will squeeze credit assets with lower income, such as bills, so as to meet corporate loans with higher income.
Meanwhile, Zhou Haibin added that with the marginal relaxation of the real estate loan policy, credit supply began to rebound; In addition, the trillions of carbon emission reduction tools will also squeeze the ticket holding scale of banks to a certain extent. Therefore, the price is easy to rise but difficult to fall in January next year, and the full-term ticket probability will return to a reasonable range of more than 2%.
Political Commissar Lu, chief economist, also said recently that in the good start of credit at the beginning of the year, the bill interest rate is expected to rebound from the low in December, and the bill position building and trading suggestions focus on three bands. He further analyzed that it is expected that from the beginning of January to the middle of January, the credit will start well at the beginning of the year and the demand for enterprise Invoicing will be large. At the same time, the tax period in the middle of January will be superimposed on the cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival, the liquidity may be tense at some time, and the bill interest rate will rise from the low point at the end of December; Before and after the Spring Festival, the number of invoices issued by enterprises decreased, while the central bank increased liquidity investment, and the trend of bill interest rate was mainly volatile; After the Spring Festival holiday in February, the invoice volume of enterprises rises again, and the bill interest rate may still be relatively strong.
(First Finance)
