In 2022, the demand for electric vehicles will exceed 10 million, and the high boom will continue
Under the resonance of high-quality supply and favorable policies, the global consumption demand for electric vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million in 2022, reaching 10.02 million, a year-on-year increase of + 63%, and the penetration rate will increase by about 4pcts to 12%; The global demand for lithium battery is expected to be about 855gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 57%, of which the demand for power battery is about 571gwh, a year-on-year increase of + 74%. As the electric vehicle industry chain continues to have a high outlook, we suggest to grasp three investment mainlines from the two dimensions of quantity and profit:
Grasp the regional growth exceeding expectations
1) The fiscal stimulus policy for high-intensity electric vehicles is expected to be implemented in the United States in 2022. Next year, the sales of electric vehicles in the United States is expected to replicate the high growth in Europe in 2020, which is expected to reach 1.56 million, a year-on-year increase of + 155%, becoming the region with the highest growth rate of electric vehicle sales in the world.
2) China's pure electricity and plug-in markets have been fully launched. The release of production capacity of high-quality models such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and new forces in 2022 will further boost downstream demand. Meanwhile, 2022 is the last year of electric vehicle subsidy, and the sales volume may exceed expectations. In the neutral case, we expect the sales volume of electric vehicles to be about 5.5 million in 2022, a year-on-year increase of + 60%. In an optimistic situation, the sales volume was 5.95 million, a year-on-year increase of + 76%.
From 1 to N, the permeability of high nickel ternary and LFP increased
1) The launch of high-end models in the overseas electric vehicle market will be accelerated, and the ternary penetration rate of high nickel will be gradually increased. In the long run, high nickel ternary is still the main development direction. We predict that the installed capacity of high nickel ternary power battery will be about 183gwh in 2022, with a year-on-year + 110%, a penetration rate of about 38%, and a year-on-year + 6pcts; The corresponding demand for high nickel ternary cathode materials is about 250000 tons, with a year-on-year + 104%, a penetration rate of about 31%, and a year-on-year + 5pcts.
2) In 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery structure will shift from ternary battery to ternary and LFP. Mainstream car companies such as Tesla, Mercedes Benz and Volkswagen will mass produce LFP models around the world. Battery factories such as LG will also speed up the layout, and LFP will start globalization. We estimate that the installed capacity of LFP power battery will be about 162 GWH in 2022, with a year-on-year + 94%, a penetration rate of about 34%, and a year-on-year + 4pcts; The corresponding demand for LFP cathode material is about 340000 tons, year-on-year + 88%, permeability is about 42%, year-on-year + 4pcts.
The supply and demand of materials such as batteries and diaphragms are tight
With the arrival of the bargaining window period, the cost pressure of lithium battery is expected to be conducted smoothly, and the profitability will be repaired at the bottom. At the same time, the supply of battery materials such as diaphragm is tight, and the price increase logic is expected to be realized.
Investment advice
1) In order to grasp the unexpected growth of electric vehicles dominated by the United States, it is suggested to pay attention to the manufacturers cutting into the supply chain of overseas Japanese and Korean battery factories: Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Shenzhen Xfh Technology Co.Ltd(300890) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , etc. And pay attention to the possibility of China's exceeding expected growth, recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) where the electric vehicle technology cycle resonates with the model cycle, film capacitor manufacturers Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) and diaphragm manufacturers Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) with a solid leading position.
2) The general direction of improving high nickel permeability remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the leaders of high nickel cathode and enterprises with strong resource control, such as Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Gem Co.Ltd(002340) .
From 1 to N, LFP starts globalization. It is recommended to pay attention to leading enterprises Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) with excellent customer structure and rapid capacity expansion.
3) Continue to be optimistic about the battery link with high barriers, look at the profitability repair in the short term and the industrial chain layout in the long term. It is recommended to pay attention to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , etc. Under the high growth of electric vehicles, we are optimistic about the diaphragm material link with tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) .
Risk statement
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the overseas electric vehicle industry policy was less than expected, the supply chain supporting was less than expected, and the risk of Sino US trade friction.
(Shanghai Securities)
