Restless or near the end
This week (from December 13 to December 17, 2021), the main broad-based indexes fell significantly, but the power + cycle in the industry led the rise. We expected the “spring agitation” of the whole market in our annual strategy “victory over Mo” Expressed caution. Since September, it has been expected to correct the double control of real estate and energy consumption. Monetary easing is expected to start earlier than the second quarter. The central economic work conference is actually the fulfillment rather than the beginning of the above two expectations. Naturally, the market can not form a joint force under this environment. The real main line since December is “the rebound of heavily held stocks of institutions reduced in 2021”, that is, the whole market, based on the understanding of the meeting, preempts the rebound brought by their familiar fields. On the contrary, the trend of bank stocks reflects that it will take time for the market to recognize the reversal of macro fundamentals, and it will also take time for liquidity creation after credit relief takes effect. Unfortunately, there are no conditions for agitation in January 2021 from the perspective of micro liquidity at present: the scale of new funds has declined rapidly since September, and the fund style queued for issuance does not correspond to the rebound plate since December, so it is difficult to form a positive feedback mechanism for core assets at the beginning of the year. In the same period, the leveraged funds represented by Liangrong were also more calm than at the beginning of the year. If there is no restless market in early 2021, investors need not worry too much. There is no need to “hold money” in the market, and the adjustment of the main line is the most important.
Focus on the connection between funds going north and overseas risks
Since December, the activity of the market has largely depended on the activity of funds going north. Northbound funds can be roughly divided into two types: overseas long-term funds mainly hosted in foreign banks (including overseas subsidiaries of some large Chinese institutions), that is, funds called “real foreign capital” by investors, accounting for a relatively high proportion (78%) and the trading behavior is stable; the funds that are mainly hosted by Chinese, Hong Kong and foreign securities companies and can use the global low interest rate capital cost for high-frequency and leveraged trading, we understand that some “mainland investors” Among them, such funds have contributed to the main marginal force of capital inflows to the north since December. On December 17, the new regulations to be revised by the CSRC required that some “mainland investors” in the future could not participate in the transaction in the form of funds going north. Although there was a grace period of one year, such effects had emerged: on the 17th, when the funds entrusted with foreign banks inflow 1.948 billion yuan, the latter outflow was about 8.5 billion yuan. On the other hand, even for the “real foreign capital” in China going north, the short-term impact of the tightening of the Fed’s policy on A-Shares deserves attention, which is mainly reflected in: the VIX Index of U.S. stocks is at the bottom depressed by the loose policy after the epidemic, which may be gradually raised with the acceleration of taper and the increase of interest rates, and the amplification of fluctuations in overseas markets will affect the position of global risk assets; The linkage between gem and overseas is also increasing recently.
The “renewal” of the old economy: power + cycle
Grasping the main line of 2022 is still the core task of investors in market disturbance. In the transformation to a new energy system and digitization, electricity will be the most growing energy in the future, while the prediction of electricity consumption with reference to economic growth but ignoring the increase in proportion is underestimated. The core of power shortage in 2022 will transition from serious coal shortage in 2021 to multi factor resonance: tight balance of coal production capacity, optimization of power price mechanism, stability of renewable energy system and power grid construction. In 2022, the power grid construction obviously lags behind the power supply construction in the same period, and the new infrastructure will bring opportunities. For the traditional cycle, the shortage of electricity will bring opportunities for supply constraints and demand pull at both ends. The internal logic is that the long-term profit center needs to be repriced, and three reasons may be future catalysis: the cognition of incremental profit distribution after the recovery of demand expectation; Price stabilization and rebound under supply constraints; Revaluation brought by the transformation ability of high cash flow.
True optimists should not rush to the present
The essence of bullish spring agitation is actually pessimistic about the whole year of 2022. We believe that the ability of A-Shares to create returns for shareholders throughout the year will not decline, and investors should give up short-term game. Current recommended layout: steel, coal, new power system construction (distribution network intelligence, energy storage and comprehensive energy services), power and nonferrous metals (aluminum and copper). Throughout 2022, the themes of bank, crude oil chain (oil transportation and oil service), gold and Rural Revitalization will be important main lines.
Risk tips:
The implementation of carbon neutralization policy is lower than expected; The implementation of the steady growth policy was lower than expected.
