In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world continues to rise slowly. Christmas is approaching, and the epidemic situation in Europe and the United States may face another test. In terms of economic data, although the Markit manufacturing PMI index of the United States and the manufacturing PMI index of the euro zone fell slightly in December, they still maintained a strong expansion trend. The further increase in the utilization rate of industrial capacity in the United States in November indicates the continuous recovery of its supply capacity, and the rise in the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the euro zone in November continues to highlight the global inflationary pressure.
In terms of China's environment, the weakening of economic growth has significantly reduced the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal revenue in November to - 11.2%, down 11 percentage points from October, while the growth rate of fiscal expenditure in the same period has increased by 5.5 percentage points to 8.5% from October, and fiscal expenditure has increased. Among them, local fiscal expenditure is the main force, which has increased by nearly 8 percentage points to 6.1% from October in the same month; Over the same period, the growth rate of central fiscal expenditure decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 22.2% compared with October; Among all kinds of expenditure, social security, science and technology and education have a high contribution rate, while the growth rate of infrastructure expenditure is still sluggish. In terms of policy, at a regular briefing last week, the Ministry of Finance pointed out that "the new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in 2022 has been issued to all localities in advance", and "more points will be given to places with high project capital demand and good construction conditions, otherwise less points will be given appropriately". Superimposed on the post issuance of special bonds this year, the financial expenditure will be significantly strengthened in the first quarter of 2022, So as to form a strong support for infrastructure investment and effectively offset the negative impact of the downward growth of real estate investment; This week, the national standing committee pointed out that "at present, foreign trade is facing more uncertain, unstable and unbalanced factors". It is necessary to "do a good job in cross cycle adjustment, help enterprises to bail out, especially support small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, strive to maintain orders, stabilize expectations and promote the steady development of foreign trade", take care of multi-directional needs and go forward separately, In an interview with the people's daily, Ning Jizhe also pointed out that "do a good job in the organic combination of cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation policies" and "put stable growth in a more prominent position". Therefore, although the year-on-year economic growth in the first quarter of 2022 is under pressure, considering the influence of the base effect, we should pay more attention to the changes in the month on month growth of economic data.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions rebounded slightly, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continued to fall. In the middle reaches, steel prices rose slightly and cement prices fell. Upstream, the price of thermal coal is relatively weak, the price of coking coal and coke rebounded further, the price of aluminum and zinc in non-ferrous metals is relatively strong, the price of copper and lead fluctuated sideways, and the prices of precious metals and crude oil rebounded.
Risk tip: the development of international epidemic situation exceeded expectations
