Investment advice
Review: the epidemic situation is stable and air travel has recovered rapidly. Under the normalization trend of covid-19 epidemic, the civil aviation passenger traffic volume rebounded in 2021. According to the monthly data, the recovery was strong from February to July, with a significant year-on-year increase. Later, due to the repeated epidemic in some parts of China, it decreased from August to November. 4. May is the traditional off-season, and the turnover of Chinese passengers exceeds the level of the same period in 2019. In the traditional off-season, the three major airlines have greatly reduced their losses and small airlines have turned losses into profits; In the traditional summer peak season in July, China’s passenger turnover recovered to 96.81% in 2019. The profit in the short peak season is better. It is expected that the demand for air travel is expected to recover rapidly after the epidemic is gradually controlled.
Prospect: the popularization of vaccination is improved, and the successful R & D of covid-19 drugs will help the production and life return to normal. The popularity of vaccination has increased, and the proportion of covid-19 vaccination in China (complete vaccination) has exceeded 80.49%. Vaccination has been strengthened and the promotion has been accelerated. The R & D of covid-19 specific drugs has been successful. On October 1, 2021, the global pharmaceutical giant MSD announced that the risk of hospitalization or death was reduced by about 50% in the interim analysis results of phase III clinical trials. On November 5, 2021, Pfizer covid-19 oral drug also made progress. The interim analysis results of phase II / III clinical trial showed that it could reduce the risk of hospitalization and death by 89%. On December 8, 2021, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the registration application for the covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combination therapy drugs ambacizumab injection (brii-196) and romisvir mAb injection (brii-198) of tengshengbo pharmaceutical’s non wholly-owned subsidiary. With the continuous development of specific drugs and the popularization of vaccination, it will help the production and life return to normal.
Airport sector: the main line of demand recovery under controllable epidemic situation. As the overseas epidemic is still severe, in order to control the import of overseas epidemic, China still adopts “five ones” and “fuse” policies to control the number of international flights. With the promotion and popularization of vaccine research and development, the entry-exit restriction policy is expected to be liberalized, and the demand for air travel suppressed by the epidemic will be released. We judge that international and regional routes will be gradually restored by the end of 2022, Hong Kong and Macao airlines are expected to take the lead in opening up. With the popularization of vaccination and the gradual development of specific drugs, the impact of the epidemic is expected to be reduced, the suppressed demand for air travel will be released, and the airport sector has become the main line of demand recovery under the control of the epidemic.
Aviation: with the decline of supply growth and the market-oriented reform of ticket prices, the long-term profits of the airline company will be better. We expect that during the “14th five year plan” period, the growth rate of aviation supply will decline, the marketization of freight rates will continue to advance, and the appreciation of exchange rate will be superimposed. From the medium and long-term perspective, the profitability of airlines will continue to improve. If the epidemic control and entry-exit restrictions are relaxed, the international line recovers, China’s excess transport capacity is allocated to the international market, and the travel demand surges, there will be a tight balance between supply and demand, and the airline’s profit elasticity will appear. After the adjustment of the aviation sector, the investment value will be highlighted, focusing on Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) .
Airport: the long-term value of the channel is prominent, waiting for the repair after the epidemic. Airport duty-free consumption has its unique consumption scenario. After the epidemic situation recovers, the airport still occupies an important position in the duty-free channels and does not change the long-term pattern of duty-free goods sales channels. In October, Louis Vuitton won the bid for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) T2 terminal taxable business, and luxury goods entered the airport, highlighting the value of taxable channels. Affected by the epidemic in the short term, but in the long term, the investment value of the airport sector is prominent. The aviation charging standard of international flights is higher than that of Chinese flights. With the marginal improvement of international flights, we focus on Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) and Meilan Airport.
Risk statement
The risk of vaccine R & D and popularization is lower than expected, the risk of macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, the risk of RMB exchange rate depreciation and the risk of sharp rise in oil prices.
