event
On December 18, Weilai officially released the medium-sized electric sedan et5, which is equipped with dual motors as standard, equipped with the front 150KW asynchronous motor and the rear 210Kw permanent magnet motor, with a maximum power of 360 kW.
Core view
The flat wire of motor brings a new round of technical iteration, and the penetration rate of flat wire motor is expected to increase rapidly in the future! Due to the increased requirements of terminal brand models, the threshold of driving motor has been greatly increased in recent years. Compared with the traditional round wire, the flat wire motor has greatly improved the power density, resulting in the miniaturization of motor volume, less demand for raw materials and lower cost. The motor has a trend of developing from round wire to flat wire. Among the top 15 models of new energy vehicle sales in 2020, only some models such as Euler R1, ideal one and velai ES6 adopt flat wire motor. In 2020, the penetration rate of flat wire motor is less than 10%, the penetration rate of superimposed new energy vehicle is 5.4%, and the comprehensive penetration rate of flat wire is less than 1%. Since 2021, model y and GAC have replaced flat wire motors. All Byd Company Limited(002594) DMI adopt flat wire motors. The potential models to be listed in the future, such as et5, et7, Zhiji and polar krypton, also adopt flat wire motors. Considering the advantages of flat wire such as high power density, high energy conversion efficiency and good heat dissipation, it is expected that the penetration rate of flat wire motors will increase rapidly in the next 3-5 years.
Flat wire motor has multiple barriers, and advantageous enterprises are expected to enlarge their competitive advantage! The barriers of flat wire motor are mainly reflected in: 1) equipment: the equipment requires high precision and must rely on automatic production line; 2) Material: the copper wire must be elastic, but the rebound after bending shall not damage the insulation layer of the electromagnetic wire; During the shrinkage process of flat wire coating, the four corners will become thinner, which will affect the insulation, so it needs to be thickened at the corners; 3) The process is complex, and more than ten processes need to be formed at one time. At present, among the flat wire motor enterprises that have stable production and supply, overseas mainly include liandian, Bosch, bogwarner, etc., and China mainly includes Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) , Tianjin Songzheng, Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) . It is expected that advantageous enterprises are expected to amplify their advantages in technological upgrading.
Multiple inflection points have arrived, and the profit of the motor industry is expected to increase rapidly in the future! In the past few years, the drive motor industry was unable to make a profit mainly due to the high R & D expenses and the absence of popular models, which was reflected in the fact that each model developed needed to design a production line separately, and the R & D expenses were very high. However, there were no popular models with high quality and stable sales in the past few years. Therefore, the motor industry showed a state of scattered market, low revenue of each enterprise and high cost rate, At the same time, it is also accompanied by bad debt provision brought by bankruptcy and reorganization of some traditional new forces. Since 2020, with the rise of new forces such as Tesla, SAIC GM Wuling, Byd Company Limited(002594) and weixiaoli, the third-party motor enterprises supplying high-quality models are expected to rapidly increase the revenue scale and continuously optimize the product structure and customer structure under the trend of flat wire double motors. As the rising trend of upstream raw material prices slows down next year, and the cost pressure is transmitted downstream through the favorable price mechanism, the overall cost rate will drop rapidly due to the superposition of scale effect. It is expected that the overall profitability of the drive motor industry is expected to be significantly improved in the future!
Investment proposal and investment object
The scale and performance of the motor have been reached. With the rapid increase of new energy vehicles, the sales volume is expected to quickly achieve from one million to ten million. With the performance upgrading of the motor, the motor will develop in the direction of double motor and flat wire in the future, and the third-party Enterprises focusing on the motor are expected to obtain an invisible market share. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (002196, not rated), Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) – UW (688280, not rated), Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) (600580, not rated), Zhongshan Broad-Ocean Motor Co.Ltd(002249) (002249, not rated), Changying Xinzhi Technology Co.Ltd(002664) (002664, not rated).
Risk statement
Rising prices of raw materials; The expansion of third-party enterprise customers is less than expected; Sales of new energy vehicles were lower than expected
