Industry perspective
Recently, viva and other anchors have been investigated for tax evasion by hiding their personal income, and have been punished by supplementary tax payment, late fee, fine, and blocking of live studio and multi platform social accounts.
On December 22, Shanghai Taxation Bureau and Zhejiang Taxation Bureau successively asked star artists and network anchors to strictly investigate tax problems. At present, thousands of people have taken the initiative to self inspect and pay taxes. It is expected that the industry will strengthen the investigation and handling of tax related problems.
Taobao tiktok two strong monopoly, head continued concentration, vibrato flow scattered, no absolute head. Over the past 21 years, the gap between the two super heads of Taobao live broadcasting and the third place has further widened, and the aggregation effect of Traffic & voice head has become prominent, resulting in a series of problems such as intensified brand competition and traffic involution. In contrast, the pattern of shaking is more dispersed, and the “decentralization” traffic strategy is adopted. The traffic assignment algorithm is not absolute head every 6 months. The GMV volume of the US has been increasing rapidly for 21 years, and the proportion of the tramway has been continuously improved. However, the anchor pattern has no head concentration trend, ranking tiktok.
Sydney and Weiya events may mark the end of the era of live super monopoly. (1) The super head excessively compresses the living space of the middle waist anchor. At the platform level, it may cause the loss of talent resources and the imbalance of live broadcasting ecology; at the social level, it does not meet the demands of common prosperity. (2) Super head compresses the brand profits and damages the long-term development interests of the industry. Super head has a monopoly position and has high bargaining power over the brand, which is not conducive to the maintenance of the brand price system, resulting in the passive concentration of consumption to super head live broadcast nodes and the strengthening of the brand’s dependence on anchor. (3) this event standardized the operation of the industry.
Impact on the marketing side of cosmetics brands: impact on brands with more bound head anchors in the short term. The positioning of the three head anchors is different. The beauty category of viya / Sydney live studio accounts for about 35% / 25%, Unlike Li Jiaqi, who is a beauty anchor (Beauty accounts for 50% +), makeup brands of local listed companies cooperate with Chaotou to varying degrees. Winona / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / kwadi / mibel / Royal mud workshop / perfect diary cooperate more with Li Jiaqi; Yuze / baicaoji / Caitang / runbaiyan / Jihuo / MARUMI cooperate more with Weiya; Mao Geping / Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) Dr. yu’er has not cooperated with Chaotou yet, and Yilian has less cooperation (once with Weiya on November 18). For the brands that have cooperated with the head anchor recently, the short-term sales volume is uncertain. The inventory prepared for the anchor needs to be digested through the store anchor / other anchor / other channels, which may have the risk of inventory increase / inventory impairment.
The long-term industry competition has become more benign, and the brand differentiation has intensified. Compared with the store broadcasting / reach broadcasting / super head anchor, the profit margin is store broadcasting > reach broadcasting > Super head. For the brand marketing and operation ability, store broadcasting > reach broadcasting > Super head, the brand that can run through the store broadcasting model first is expected to win the dividend of this round of industry reform, which is more conducive to long-term and steady growth. The proportion of international famous brands / talent broadcasting is relatively high, while the proportion of domestic brands in the head is significantly higher than that of the industry, and the proportion of self broadcasting by Yuze / Winona / Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) / Dr. 瑷 Er exceeds 70%. Tiktok tiktok tiktok flow distribution mechanism is more conducive to the development of the industry’s ecological balance. In the past 21 years, tiktok GMV has been rapidly increasing, and 21.1 has accounted for 5% in the same period and 36% in October.
Investment advice
The webcast strengthens tax supervision, and the new regulations on cosmetics are about to be implemented. The national level is guiding the cosmetics industry to accelerate the standardized development and step into benign competition from traffic volume. This event will accelerate the reshuffle and pattern differentiation of the industry. The brand barrier will focus more on product strength and multi platform operation ability, which will benefit the head brands with strong product innovation and R & D strength, balanced development of online multi platform layout and strong self broadcasting ability. It is recommended that Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) .
Risk statement
Industry supervision is less than expected, the development of live e-commerce is less than expected, and terminal consumption is weak.
