Resumption of market performance in 2021
Year to date (as of December 17, the same below), the Shenwan leisure service industry index fell by 14.41%, the CSI 300 index fell by 4.92%, and the industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 9.49pct, ranking 26th among the 28 industries of Shenwan. Among the secondary sub industries, hotels, other leisure services, scenic spots, tourism integration and catering increased by 11.43%, 8.15%, - 1.53%, - 18.2% and - 21.61% respectively. The overall P / E ratio was affected by the sector The impact of the sharp decline in market value gradually returns.
The epidemic situation is repeated, and the industry recovers in twists and turns
After the Spring Festival, the industry began to recover strongly, but due to the repeated impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year, Q3 tourism passenger flow fell again, which had a great impact on the performance of listed companies. The total number of Chinese tourists in the first three quarters of 2021 was 2.689 billion, recovering to 58.5% in the same period in 2019; China's tourism revenue was 2.37 trillion yuan, recovering to 54.4% in the same period in 2019. For the sake of epidemic prevention and control, inbound and outbound tourism has not been restarted
Key sub industries: different performance of segments
1. Tax exemption: the tax exemption of outlying islands complies with the policy direction of Hainan free trade port and the trend of stimulating the return of overseas consumption. After the epidemic, the sales have achieved high growth and the tax-free cake has continued to grow. In 2022, with the expansion of duty-free stores, international first-line brands will continue to settle in, and the customer unit price is expected to continue to increase. In terms of entry-exit tax exemption, the rent of duty-free shops at Beishang airport is renegotiated to reduce costs, Hong Kong customs clearance is expected to restart by the end of the year, the entry-exit policy is expected to be gradually relaxed in 2022, and the entry-exit tax exemption is expected to return to a certain extent.
2. Hotel: the epidemic situation has repeatedly caused fluctuations in hotel operation, and the stock price has gradually passivated the response to the epidemic situation. After the end of the epidemic situation, the operation data of the hotel industry has recovered rapidly and the performance is flexible enough. The epidemic situation did not affect the speed of leading exhibition stores. The number of new stores opened in the first three quarters reached a new high, and the number of reserve hotels continued to grow. During the epidemic, the hotel group continued to expand medium and high-end hotels, accelerated the sinking market construction and renovated the existing hotels. The epidemic situation accelerates the clearing of the industry, breaks the balance between supply and demand, reduces effective supply, and the recovery of demand will drive the rapid rise of RevPAR. The recovery of the hotel industry cycle is expected to strengthen, which is expected to open a new business cycle.
3. Scenic spot: the passenger flow in the scenic spot has yet to be recovered. The passenger flow during the May Day holiday has recovered to 103% of the same period in 19 years, becoming the peak of tourism recovery in the whole year. Affected by the repeated epidemic situation and extreme weather in the second half of the year, the recovery of the tourism market continues to be under pressure. The performance of listed companies has significantly improved year-on-year, but it is still significantly lower than that before the epidemic situation. The epidemic situation has a great impact on long-term tourists. The scenic spot pays more attention to the development of surrounding tourists, and strengthens its own digital construction to improve its ability to obtain customers.
4. Outbound tourism: the outbound tourism industry is still at a standstill, Hong Kong customs clearance is expected to resume by the end of the year, and the entry-exit policy is expected to be gradually relaxed in 2022. Outbound travel agencies are still making substantial and sustained losses. On the one hand, they are significantly reducing costs, saving expenses and coping with industry difficulties. On the other hand, they are actively expanding to the surrounding industrial chain and arranging China's tourism destinations, ground resources and tourism retail business.
5. Human resources services: covid-19 epidemic has catalyzed the application of flexible employment, and the market scale still maintains rapid growth. Airy consulting predicts that the compound annual growth rate will be maintained at 25% in the future, and the scale of flexible employment market will exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2022. Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) in the first half of the year, the revenue of flexible work business was 2.518 billion / + 80.6%, accounting for 80% of the total revenue, and the growth rate was much higher than that of others. The company's flexible employment business focuses on medium and high-end talents, and the per capita post income is dominant. The company continued to increase investment in technology research and development, continuously enriched technical service products, and new business grew rapidly.
Investment suggestion: stick to the dragon head and wait for the flowers to bloom
We are optimistic about the medium and long-term growth of the social service industry and maintain the industry's "overweight" rating.
It is recommended to select individual stocks from the following dimensions:
1. Duty free industry: the tax-free cake on outlying islands continues to grow, and the leading enterprises have multiple advantages such as supply chain, management, channel and membership; The entry-exit tax exemption is expected to be restored with the popularization of vaccines, and the domestic tax exemption policy is expected to be implemented. It is recommended to China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) .
2. Hotel Industry: the number of new stores opened by leading enterprises reached a new high, and continued to layout mid-range hotels and sinking market. The industry ushered in an upward turning point due to the improvement of supply-demand relationship. It is recommended that Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) and Jinjiang shares.
3. Leisure scenic spot: the leading performing arts profit model is dominant, accelerate the transformation and upgrading to the Performing Arts Park model, accelerate the upgrading of hardware facilities and scenic spot atmosphere, and strengthen the independent R & D and innovation of performing arts content and the introduction of external investigation. The expansion of the project continues to advance, and the performance is flexible during the recovery period of the epidemic. Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) is recommended.
4. Human resources services: the company's flexible work business has a high growth rate, while increasing R & D efforts, laying out technical products and opening up future growth space. Recommended Beijing Career International Co.Ltd(300662) .
Risk tips:
Economic growth is down, residents' consumption will is weakened, and the travel rate is declining; Risks such as the industry entering a downward cycle.
