Viewpoint: according to the latest PMI data, the economy has rebounded, but on the whole, it is still anti pumping, and the downward pressure is still large. However, with the support of relatively stable fundamentals and liquidity, the market as a whole maintained a good foundation. With the inflation peaking expectation strengthened and the RRR reduction expectation landed, the expectation of monetary easing increased again, bringing an overall boost to the market. Under the expectation of monetary and credit easing in the coming year, the market is also expected to gradually open a good trend. In the short term, the overseas epidemic disturbs the capital market, and the increased volatility may affect China’s A-share sentiment. However, under the tone of enhanced expectation of monetary easing and steady growth, the market in the next year and the first quarter of the next year is still expected, and bargain hunting as a whole is still a good time for allocation.
After yesterday’s peripheral rebound and the concentrated upward movement of a shares, the two cities opened higher today. Under the collective recovery of U.S. stocks and Chinese stocks, the subject stocks strengthened as a whole in the morning. After yesterday’s general rise, some heavyweights adjusted slightly, which dragged down the performance of the index as a whole. However, the overall performance of the market is stable, and the momentum since yesterday’s rebound is good. On the disk, the media led the rise, with electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and computers leading the rise, while architectural decoration, real estate, household appliances and banks leading the decline.
Overnight, the United States ushered in a rebound yesterday, which brought a short-term emotional boost to the market. Therefore, although the real estate sector stepped back, driven by theme stocks, the overall performance of the index was stable. At this stage, we need to pay due attention to the impact of overseas epidemic on European and American stock markets. Recently, the death of Omicron occurred in the United States, and the epidemic in the United States has escalated again, with a surge in Omicron cases, which will have some impact on the stock market. If it causes large fluctuations in the stock market, it may cause emotional interference to a shares. In addition, the current high inflation in the United States and the expectation of raising interest rates in the coming year are also unfavorable to US stocks.
Of course, this is a possible short-term emotional impact, which needs our due attention. However, from the perspective of China as a whole, there is no need to worry too much. On the one hand, the central bank’s RRR reduction has offset the expected interference of US interest rate hike to a certain extent; On the other hand, after the RRR reduction, LPR has also been reduced, and the easing cycle has begun. Under the guidance of internal factors, the overall good trend of the market has not changed.
Therefore, we continue to be optimistic about the inter year institutional market and the market in the first quarter of next year. After all, the central bank’s RRR reduction has brought new expectations of monetary boost to the market, and steady growth has also ushered in a policy underpinning. The market’s positive trend has gradually become clear. With the support of previous fundamentals, the positive foundation has been strengthened; RRR reduction combined with “interest rate reduction”, the expectation of monetary easing has increased again, which still supports and boosts the market. After short-term consolidation, there is still upward foundation and space.
Strategically, in the process of sorting out these two days, we can consider gradually carrying out the latent and configuration of the cross year market and the market in the first quarter of the next year. In terms of specific opportunities and allocation, it is suggested to explore from three angles: first, the “steady growth” or phased main line from the policy perspective, and the involved plates can track building materials, construction machinery, food and beverage and household appliances; Secondly, it can also be superimposed with varieties with high attention to funds in the north, such as financial and other value blue chips, in which it can focus on the securities sector with undervalued value and good performance; Third, science and technology and new energy are mainly varieties with relatively uncertain growth under the downward pressure of the economy.
(Jufeng Finance)
