Xingshi investment released a report on the 22nd that looking forward to 2022, the supply clearing logic will continue to play a role, and there is still a structural market. The difference is that with the gradual stabilization of economic expectations, the boom in the upstream field will be transmitted more smoothly to the downstream. The consumer field is expected to take over the cycle plate, usher in the simultaneous rise of volume and price, and the consumer assets with low price to book ratio are expected to be revalued.
The report believes that from the current point of view, whether it is long-term logic or medium-term logic, the improvement trend of consumer demand is clear. Since the second half of 2021, there have been multiple favorable changes in the consumption environment. First, the income of low-income groups with higher marginal propensity to consume is rapidly restored. The income growth of migrant workers accelerated significantly in the third quarter of 2021, and even began to exceed the income growth of urban residents, which is rare in recent five years. Second, under the epidemic prevention system of dynamic clearing and precise prevention and control, the epidemic spread is controllable, which helps to improve residents' consumption confidence. Third, moderate inflation has a positive feedback effect on consumer demand. At present, a number of leading consumer goods have started the tide of price rise, and the power of the supply side has initially begun to release. With the moderate rise of the core CPI center next year, the downstream consumer sector is expected to usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and price. The PPI superimposed on the representative cost peaked and fell, and the profit growth rate is expected to be significantly repaired.
Xingshi investment expects that next year, with the recovery of core CPI and the increase of upward pressure on interest rates, value stocks will be relatively dominant. Among them, consumer assets with low price to book ratio are expected to usher in a double-click in performance and valuation. Although the profit of the consumer industry slowed down periodically under the impact of the epidemic, there was a deviation phenomenon that the apparent P / E ratio (PE) was falsely high and the P / B ratio (PB) was at a low level. However, the fierce clearing of industry supply has significantly improved the long-term profitability of assets. Once demand is normalized, the elasticity of earnings improvement must be much higher than expected. Therefore, based on the long-term value of assets, the cost performance of the consumer sector has been highlighted. In 2022, we will focus on consumer assets with low price to book ratio, such as air tourism, logistics, brand consumption, medicine, advertising media, etc.
(Xinhua Finance)
