Near the peak of liquor consumption, the price of base liquor generally increased by 15% – 20%.
Maotai flavor base wine welcomes price increase again
According to industry media reports, although many sauce and wine products have been sluggish in the market, their base wine has still come out of an independent rising market. With the time entering December and approaching the peak of liquor consumption such as new year’s day and Spring Festival, the supply of base liquor market is in short supply, it is a common phenomenon that the prices of base liquor such as super grade Maoxiang, excellent grade Maoxiang and first grade Maoxiang have increased by 15% – 20%.
The price rise of base liquor is affected by multiple factors. First of all, the “sauce wine fever” began in 2018, but wine enterprises expanded their production on a large scale in 19-20 years. Sauce and wine production is cyclical. Sauce and wine enterprises are very short of wine before 2023, and the mismatch of production and supply leads to the price rise of base wine; Secondly, the costs of raw materials, manpower and environmental protection rose sharply, pushing up the price of base wine; In addition, considering the competitive relationship of sauce and wine enterprises and the occupation and height of brands in the future, it is not ruled out that manufacturers may follow the trend and increase prices.
When will the tension between supply and demand of base liquor ease? It is generally believed in the industry that the continuous rise in the price of high-quality Maotai flavor base liquor in the next few years will be a high probability event. It is expected that in 2023, the production expansion capacity of mainstream sauce and wine enterprises will begin to release; In 2025, the contradiction between supply and demand can be basically alleviated. At present, the chain effect of the price rise of Maotai flavor base liquor has been transmitted to the product end, and some Maotai liquor brands have successively issued product price rise notices.
market is expected to raise Baijiu price higher than
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that high-end Baijiu has strong barriers, business models have advantages, and the performance stability in 2022 is still strong. At present, the market is expecting higher price and higher performance. The high-end Baijiu has been shifting gears, and the following will be mainly stable operation, and improve the quality of its own operation. The main logic of the rise of the high-end Baijiu in the short term is the anticipation of the Spring Festival and the start of the first quarter of next year. In the long run, it remains cautious and optimistic.
East Asia Qianhai said that the high-end Baijiu is showing a steady price trend under the background of consumption upgrading. Last week Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) informed that it was suggested to increase the quota supply price of 52 degree Guojiao 1573 classic packaging terminal channel by 70 yuan / bottle. With the Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) price rise landing, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) price expectations are expected to gradually landing, high-end Baijiu boom is higher certainty.
Meanwhile, the ceiling of the secondary Baijiu price has been shifting upward with the upward shift of the price of high-end Baijiu, and the market space has been continuously opened. The Baijiu liquor enterprises with strong brand strength and channel power will enjoy a larger bonus to the industry.
expects Baijiu shares to grow at a high level of
Securities times data treasure statistics, Baijiu (Shen Wan) index this year, the total fell 1.49%, the same period of the same market (4.38%); Among the constituent stocks, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) led the cumulative increase, with 173.7%, 113.82%, 53.62% and 42.63% respectively. From the perspective of stock price retreat, Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) led the decline, with a decline of more than 30% compared with the high level in the year; The recent market performance of Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) is good, and the latest price is less than 8% from the high of the year.
Data treasure statistics, Baijiu II (Shen Wan) index in December 21st rolling price earnings ratio was 48.38 times, a total of 7 constituent stocks latest valuation is lower than this value. Including Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) two 100 billion market capitalization stocks, the rolling P / E ratios were 39.55 times and 34.98 times respectively. In addition, the agency predicts that the annual net profit growth rate of 16 shares is higher than 20%, Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co.Ltd(002646) and Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) are expected to double, and the net profit growth of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co.Ltd(600559) , Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) is also expected to exceed 50%.
(data treasure)
