Today (December 22), the three major stock indexes of A-Shares opened high. After a sharp pull at the beginning of the session, the stock index fell rapidly, and then the pattern of Shenzhen strong and Shanghai weak was obvious. The Shanghai index maintained a weak shock, while the Shenzhen Component Index and gem index rose in the shock. From the disk point of view, the light index heavy stock market continues, the recent sharp rise in the real estate sector is facing a correction, while the technology stock market is ready to move, and consumer electronics plays the leading role. In addition, the concept of meta universe has made a comeback, with outstanding performance in sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine and natural gas, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the logic of the current cross-year market is still valid. There is no need to worry too much about short-term disturbance. The cross-year market will pick up levels in the fluctuation and rise of the index and the alternating rotation of plates. Continue to grasp the three main lines: securities companies, an important carrier of cross year market interpretation; New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair; “Double carbon” related new energy, coal and other sectors. Emotional direction, Yuan universe, digital currency and other sectors, you can pay attention to relevant trends in the short term.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified plate rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] consumer electronics
Huachuang Securities pointed out that due to the product cycle, the consumer electronics industry has lost more than a year’s Innovation window, and most companies have reduced their performance to varying degrees due to the intensification of track competition and exchange rate. The whole sector has experienced a systematic Davis double kill market. With the arrival of AR / VR and other new hardware innovation cycles, there is room for the valuation of the sector to be repaired, The performance growth of relevant leading stocks is expected to bottom out and pick up, and the current location allocation has a high cost performance.
In addition, Guorong Securities said that the mobile phone industry chain ushered in a weak recovery, and the improvement of iPhone 2022h1 shipments provided strong support for the prosperity of the industry. On the one hand, the decline in China’s mobile phone shipments is due to the rise in the mobile phone replacement cycle under the lack of innovation. On the other hand, it is also related to China’s repeated epidemic, lack of core in the industrial chain and insufficient consumption. After two consecutive months of year-on-year decline in mobile phone shipments in August and September, China’s mobile phone shipments began to stabilize and rebound since October. The industry recovery trend was confirmed in November. With the gradual easing of the lack of core in the industrial chain, and the peak season of consumer electronics years ago, it is expected that the prosperity of the industry will continue to rise.
In addition, according to the South Korean parts industry news, apple set the iPhone shipment target of 170 million in the first half of next year, 30% higher than 130 million this year, and has informed major parts manufacturers of the supply and demand plan, which will support the prosperity of the mobile phone industry chain in the first half of next year.
[Topic 2] traditional Chinese medicine
AVIC securities mentioned that based on the judgment of short-term fluctuation and repeated uncertainty of covid-19 epidemic situation, it can continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of covid-19 prevention and control industry chain in the short term, including covid-19 oral drugs, vaccines and antibodies, as well as the listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and control drug supply chain. At the same time, with the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, the trend of market consolidation and recovery has been established, and the market focus may focus on the sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the undervalued value with consumption attribute, and the growth and valuation of traditional Chinese medicine will dynamically match to a reasonable range in a period of time, At the time point when the valuation switching is gradually approaching, the advance layout needs to pay particular attention to the marginal improvement and the sustainability of growth.
Xiangcai Securities pointed out that there are frequent favorable policies for traditional Chinese medicine, and inheritance, innovation, coordinated development of traditional Chinese and Western medicine and going abroad have become national strategies. The traditional Chinese medicine industry in the policy dividend period is expected to usher in greater development opportunities. Policies such as the continuous expansion of Chinese patent medicine in the basic medicine catalogue and medical insurance catalogue, the continuous promotion of graded diagnosis and treatment, the implementation of the filing system of traditional Chinese medicine clinics, the exemption of classic famous prescriptions from clinical practice and the development of traditional Chinese medicine formula granules have formed favorable support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. The uncertain factor in the policy is the centralized purchase of Chinese patent medicine. It is expected that the negative impact of centralized purchase on Chinese patent medicine may be much less than that of chemical medicine. Overall, the positive effects of the policy are far greater than the short-term negative effects, and the policy brings opportunities for the development of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. In addition, traditional Chinese medicine covers “passive treatment + active health management”, and the industrial chain can be extended to great health and traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods. The consumption attribute of traditional Chinese medicine is becoming more and more obvious, and a policy haven is built under the control of medical insurance fees.
Demand side, population aging, chronic diseases, cancer incidence rate rise, disease spectrum changes, as well as residents’ income level raise health awareness, consumption upgrading and other factors to support the healthy and steady growth of Chinese medicine industry demand. On the policy side, the state vigorously supports and promotes the development of traditional Chinese medicine, promotes the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, and adheres to the equal emphasis on traditional Chinese and Western medicine, which has brought policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry.
On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry walked out of the low point and showed marginal improvement. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry has obvious absolute valuation advantages. “Policy + consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantages” jointly build investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven. (1) Pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine and the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and large categories; (2) Pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine; (3) Benefit from consumption upgrading and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that after years of adjustment, the valuation of the traditional Chinese medicine sector is also at the bottom. Most traditional Chinese medicine enterprises have been at a trough in the last three years, and the valuation has been lower than the overall PE of biomedicine for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to the reversal of the bottom of the performance of traditional Chinese medicine companies with brand influence and the valuation repair brought by the confirmation of C-end logic. []
[Topic 3] natural gas
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pointed out that in the short term: on the demand side, the low temperature at the beginning of the year resulted in LNG accounting for 72.4% of China’s total natural gas imports; Extreme weather and insufficient wind jointly promoted the year-on-year growth of natural gas consumption in the EU in the first half of the year; On the supply side, the recovery of output in the United States is limited, and the output in Russia has increased significantly. From January to August this year, the United States produced 689.03 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; LNG export volume reached a new high, with a year-on-year increase of 42%; Russia’s natural gas production in the first 10 months of this year was 625.73 billion m3, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year. In addition, the disadvantage of spot price of natural gas in Europe and the limited growth of Russian supply further exacerbate the tense situation of European supply. According to IEA data, we predict that the global natural gas supply and demand gap will be about 6 billion m3 in 2021. In the short term, the supply and demand will be mismatched, and the overall supply and demand of the market will be tight.
In the medium and long term, under the background of economic recovery after the epidemic and global carbon neutralization, the terminal demand switches from oil and coal to natural gas relatively quickly, which gives greater demand growth expectations; In addition, extreme weather may become a long-term factor disturbing natural gas demand, resulting in gas shortage in some areas; The slowdown of capital expenditure at the upstream of the supply side is a general trend, which indicates that it is difficult to return to the previous loose supply environment, and the supply and demand of natural gas will maintain a tight balance for a long time.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) mentioned that China’s natural gas supply and demand continued to grow rapidly and the supply and demand pattern was improving. From the supply side: the output grew steadily and the import volume increased significantly. China’s natural gas production has increased significantly in recent years and is expected to continue to grow steadily in the future. It is expected that China’s production will reach 230 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 37.5 billion cubic meters in five years. In terms of import, China’s LNG loading and unloading capacity will maintain a high growth rate in the next few years, and the China Russia east line will improve the pipeline gas transmission capacity. It is expected that China’s natural gas import will reach 229.5 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 88.1 billion cubic meters in five years.
From the demand side, the “double carbon” goal highlights the role of natural gas as a bridge. Natural gas is an important bridge in China’s transformation from coal to renewable energy. The consumption momentum in the fields of coal to gas, transportation and power generation is still strong. It is estimated that by 2025, China’s natural gas consumption will reach 448.2 billion cubic meters, with a five-year increase of 120.2 billion cubic meters, of which urban gas, industrial fuel and power generation gas will increase by 43 billion cubic meters, 47.5 billion cubic meters and 25.3 billion cubic meters respectively.
In addition, the agency further analyzed that in the short term, the margin of natural gas supply and demand in the heating season is tightened. Driven by the demand for civil gas in the heating season this year, the supply and demand of natural gas in China is expected to tighten marginally, the supply of industrial gas is tight, and the operating rate of gas head urea may be under pressure; In the long run, China’s natural gas supply and demand pattern continues to improve. From the perspective of supply-demand gap, we believe that China’s natural gas supply and demand will be tight from 2021 to 2022. In the future, with the rapid growth of supply, the matching degree between supply and demand will increase year by year. By 2025, we expect China’s natural gas supply is expected to reach 453.4 billion cubic meters and consumption is expected to reach 448.2 billion cubic meters, and the supply-demand pattern will continue to improve. []
[theme 4] meta universe
New era Securities believes that the meta universe may be understood as the next generation Internet, which will generate different connections and experiences between people and things in time and space based on different terminals, and the ultimate form will depend on the development of technology. At present, we believe that there are several directions that can be grasped around the meta universe. First, new hardware terminals and consumer arvr devices can be compared with the situation of mobile phones; Second, the new operating system or operating platform built on arvr devices, represented by Microsoft, Google, apple, wechat and other platform companies; Third, in addition to the transferred entertainment and enterprise industrial applications, or new applications with a volume of 100 million will be generated, and the business model will be extended by changing the new interaction mode of connection and experience. Although the current industrial development is at an early stage, it is developing rapidly. Early investment should grasp the digital entertainment content that has the most performance support and is most likely to be transferred to the meta universe, such as digital games, virtual people and idols, exhibitions, etc.
China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) securities mentioned that metauniverse is a new generation of Internet form with large traffic covering aiot based on network transmission reform (5g) + interactive mode reform (VR / AR) + computing power reform (AI chips such as GPU) + content Ecology (UGC). From 1g / 2G / 3G / 4G to 5g / 6G, from PC Internet, mobile Internet to metauniverse, each generation of Internet reform can bring a new round of technical dividend release, and give birth to new computing leaders (such as Intel and Qualcomm), algorithm leaders (such as Microsoft, Google and byte interaction), terminal dragons (such as Nokia and apple) and corresponding business forms. At this point in time, we focus on the progress and investment opportunities of cloud computing and AI chips supported by meta cosmic computing power.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) pointed out that the meta universe is expected to continue to catalyze the performance of the plate. 1) VR and other hardware equipment experience continues to improve, the price continues to decline, 5g, cloud computing, blockchain and other infrastructure are gradually mature, and the content and application ecology are also developing rapidly driven by hardware and infrastructure; 2) “Media is information”, as a more immersive and abundant media form, the meta universe will inevitably bring greater impact and reconstruction of human society and economy; With the acceleration of hardware and infrastructure, metauniverse is expected to mature at a faster speed. And bring new opportunities in platform ecology, hardware requirements, infrastructure, content form, etc; Driven by the head organization, the industrial ecology is expected to accelerate the landing and continue to catalyze the performance of the sector. []
