The US dollar index declined, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed, Ted interest rate spread widened but remained low, and China’s capital was tight first and then loose
Last week (20211206-20211210), the US dollar index declined as a whole. As of December 7, the size of US dollar long / short positions increased, the net long positions decreased, the interest rate spread between China and the United States narrowed, the nominal / real interest rate of US bonds increased, and the inflation expectation implied behind it increased. Overseas, the US credit spreads have narrowed, Ted spreads have widened, but they remain low, and the US financial liquidity is still abundant; For China, inter-bank funds are tight first and then loose, liquidity stratification first intensifies and then eases, term spreads (10y-1y) narrow, credit spreads of different grades / terms are widely differentiated, but the long end is wider. In terms of trading heat, the trading heat of power and public utilities, coal, automobile, steel, non bank, light industry and other industries is at a historically high level, among which the fluctuation level of power and public utilities is at a historically high level. In terms of research, electronics, banking, nonferrous metals, food and beverage, medicine, computers, home appliances and other sectors rank first.
The northward allocation / trading plate has a significant net inflow, and the differences between the two have been reduced. The trading plate is the main marginal force in the near future
Last week (20211206-20211210), the northward allocation market bought A-Shares of RMB 24.451 billion, and the trading market bought RMB 24.031 billion. Daily, northward allocation continued net buying; Beishang trading sold on Monday (20211206) and continued to buy net. Trading disk is the main marginal force in the near future, which is similar to early July 2020 and the end of May 2021. In the industry, the differences between the two have been reduced. The consensus is that they net buy food and beverage, finance, computer, chemical industry, electronics, automobile, machinery, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and net sell electricity and public utilities. In terms of style, the northward configuration / trading plate net buys the large market growth / value and the medium market growth plate, and net sells the medium market value plate, while there are differences in the small market growth / value plate. For the top three heavyweight stocks in the allocation board, the allocation board bought Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 1.411 billion yuan and 36 million yuan respectively, and sold Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) 222 million yuan. In terms of market value, last week’s northward allocation disk mainly excavated the subject matter with a market value of less than 50 billion in the military industry, coal and other sectors. In terms of individual stocks, the allocation disk mainly excavates the targets of finance, cycle, TMT and some consumer sectors; The trading market mainly focuses on Baijiu, finance and some new energy industry chain.
The activity of the two financial sectors rebounded slightly, mainly buying food and beverage, steel, non bank, electric power, public utilities, media and other sectors
Last week (20211206-20211210), the activity of the two financial sectors rebounded, with a small overall purchase of 871 million yuan, mainly buying food and beverage, steel, non-bank, power and utilities, media and other sectors, and selling nonferrous metals, banking, new power, household appliances, real estate and other sectors. In terms of style, Liangrong net sold medium market growth and market value plates, and net bought other types of style plates.
Public offering positions have increased, individual investors choose to redeem, and market instability is increasing
Last week (20211206-20211210), the positions of partial stock hybrid / common stock funds increased. After excluding the factors of rise and fall, they mainly increased their positions in sectors such as Dianxin, electronics, military industry, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, machinery and automobile, and mainly reduced their positions in sectors such as food and beverage, consumer services, household appliances and media. Last week, ETFs mainly held by institutions were subscribed, and they were mainly broad-based, which was similar to that in early July 2020 and the end of May 2021; The stock ETF mainly held by individuals is redeemed, which means that individuals may choose to redeem the fund, and the market is in a “negative feedback” state. By industry, among ETFs mainly held by individuals, ETFs related to medicine, cycle, new energy, military industry and other sectors were purchased, and ETFs related to finance, real estate, science and technology, consumption and other sectors were redeemed. The consensus between the public offering and its liability side (individuals) is to buy the new energy sector and sell the consumer sector, and there are differences on the TMT sector. There are great differences between the public offering and its main rival (northward allocation) in the consumer and financial sectors such as food and beverage, consumer services, household appliances and so on. For trend traders, Liangrong expressed its preference for food and beverage, steel, non silver, power and TMT sectors; Northbound trading mainly bought financial real estate, food and beverage, chemical industry and some TMT plates. Overall, the overall consensus of the current market has rebounded, and all kinds of investors have a high degree of consensus in electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computer, machinery and other industries. It is worth mentioning that, at present, consumer services, banks, household appliances and other sectors have been actively reduced by partial stock funds and two financing. At the same time, long-term funds represented by northward allocation plate choose to buy the above sectors. However, it should be noted that the current situation at the transaction level is similar to that at the beginning of July 2020 and the end of May 2021, which means that the unstable factors in the current market may be increasing.
Risk tips:
Measurement error.
