research conclusion
Event: on December 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest economic data. In November, the industrial added value increased by 3.8% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 3.5%; Retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with the previous value of 4.9%; From January to October, the total investment in fixed assets increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with the previous value of 6.1%.
In November, the economic data were mixed. On the one hand, exports continued to be strong, industrial production accelerated and the low level of real estate stabilized; On the other hand, infrastructure construction has not improved significantly, local epidemics have once again impacted the recovery of consumption, and employment pressure has increased against the background of slowing economic growth. The central economic work conference has set the tone of “making progress while maintaining stability”. Under the demand of stable growth, local governments are expected to accelerate the promotion of major projects and launch growth promotion policies to achieve a “good start” in the economy next year.
The restrictive factors of production gradually weakened and industrial production improved. In November, the two-year average growth rate of industrial added value was 5.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. The policy of ensuring coal price and stable supply was implemented smoothly. The fall of coal price combined with the increase of electricity price floating range alleviated the cost pressure of the power industry. The average growth rate of the production and supply of electricity, gas and water in the two years was 0.7 percentage points higher than that in the previous month; In November, the PPI index fell by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, the cost pressure of the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry was reduced, the export remained strong toughness, and the two-year average growth rate of the manufacturing industry accelerated by 0.3 percentage points to 5.3% compared with the previous month. By industry, the midstream manufacturing industry generally performed well, and the alleviation of core shortage prompted the rebound of automobile manufacturing industry.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment slowed down, including the high growth of manufacturing investment and the drag of real estate and infrastructure construction. From January to November, the investment in fixed assets increased by 5.2% year-on-year (the previous value was 6.1%), and the average growth rate in the two years was 3.9%, the same as that in the previous month. The growth rate of infrastructure investment continued the downward trend. From January to November, infrastructure increased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points compared with the previous month; the decline slope of real estate development investment slowed down, and real estate investment was in the stage of looking for recovery at the bottom. Manufacturing investment maintained double-digit growth, especially the “content” of exports Higher industry investment showed a high increase. From January to November, manufacturing investment increased by 13.7% year-on-year, with an average growth rate of 4.7% in two years, 0.8 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. The investment in equipment manufacturing industry with a high proportion of exports increased by 16.4% year-on-year, significantly higher than the growth rate of manufacturing investment.
The rebound of the epidemic has had a great impact on offline contact consumption, the catering revenue has turned negative year-on-year, and the social zero growth rate has slowed down. From the data above the limit, the two-year average growth rate mainly includes optional consumption such as automobile consumption, cosmetics, gold, silver and jewelry.
Under the background of economic slowdown, the unemployment rate has picked up, especially the employment pressure of youth groups. In November, the urban survey unemployment rate was 5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. The survey unemployment rate of employed persons aged 16-24 rose to 14.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, significantly higher than the seasonality.
At present, the drag on the economy mainly comes from the impact of the epidemic on consumption and weak investment. The main focus of steady growth may be to promote investment. On September 6 and November 24, Liu he mentioned twice in his speech and writing articles that “infrastructure investment should be carried out moderately in advance”. In the fourth quarter of this year, the pace of commencement of major projects around the country has been significantly accelerated. The central economic work conference also consolidated the responsibility of local governments and departments to stabilize the macro economy. The follow-up infrastructure investment is expected to pick up and the real estate investment is expected to pick up.
Risk statement
The epidemic rebounded, affecting the recovery of industrial production and consumption;
Monetary policy changed more than expected.
