Long term logic of wind power: “double carbon” target + continuous cost reduction
According to the national carbon peak action plan, wind power Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) the total installed capacity of power generation is more than 1.2 billion kw (the annualized compound growth rate is 8.4%), assuming that the future single w cost will drop to 4 yuan, the annual investment space will be about 270 billion yuan, which is sufficient and has certain growth potential. The core of wind power growth is cost reduction, but unlike PV, wind power depends more on cost reduction of manufacturing capacity. According to the summary data of energy intelligence, the cost of wind power will drop by 20% from the peak value after 2000 to 2020 More than 50%. It is estimated that by 2050, the cost of onshore wind power will decrease by 33.3% to 3.6 cents / kWh, and the cost of offshore wind power will decrease by 48.5% to 5.3 cents / kWh. Wind power will become a clean energy with a cost second only to Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic.
The era of parity has come and entered a stage of steady growth
The early wind power market has a typical periodicity, and the prosperity is greatly affected by subsidies. 2014-2015 and 2020-2021 are relatively prosperous periods of wind power, which are related to rush loading before the decline of subsidies. With reference to the bidding price of Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) 3.0MW wind turbine, the average price of 2021q3 is about 0.25 yuan / W, and the estimated full cost is about 0.55 yuan / W. based on this price, the IRR equity of wind power in about 24 provinces / regions is more than 7%. The wind power on the grid side of some provinces is cheaper than coal power, and the new installed capacity of wind power in the whole year is still considerable due to the superposition of sea wind rush loading. Since 2022, both sea and land winds have entered the era of parity, the fluctuation of installed capacity has been ironed, and the attribute of stable growth is more obvious.
Optimize the links of pattern improvement + domestic substitution characteristics in the field of wind power parts
Select the fields with improved pattern or domestic substitution: 1) bearing: domestic substitution, with high process design barriers and high safety equipment verification barriers. The domestic enterprises represented by Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) began to realize the breakthrough in the link of high value-added spindle bearing; 2) Tower and casting: the pattern is improved. The tower and casting itself do not have too high technical barriers. The barrier lies in the cost control ability. The improvement trend of tower link pattern in China is obvious; 3) Flange: after the large-scale fan, the corresponding flange diameter is also getting larger and larger. The flange production barrier with a diameter of more than 4.5m is relatively high. At present, it presents a duopoly pattern; 4) High altitude lifting equipment: the small and beautiful “track” superimposes the penetration of high-end products, and the leading position of Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) is stable.
Investment advice
1) Bearing: recommend Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) which is the leading bearing in China and has a clear product upgrading trend, and pay attention to Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) bearing supporting equipment enterprises; 2) Tower: pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) ; 3) Castings and Forgings: pay attention to Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) ; 4) Flange: recommended faucet Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; 5) High altitude lifting equipment: recommended faucet Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) .
Risk statement
1) The rapid price reduction in the wind power industry leads to pressure on the short-term profits of the industrial chain; 2) The release rhythm of carbon fiber usage is lower than the expected risk; 3) Raw material prices or freight costs are difficult to significantly reduce risks in the short term.
