In November, the CSI 300 index fell 1.6%, and the Shenwan automobile index rose 5.2%, outperforming the market by 6.8pct. In November, automobile sales were 2.522 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% and a month on month increase of 8.1%; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.192 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%, and the chip supply eased slightly, resulting in a month on month increase of 9.2%; The sales of 330000 commercial vehicles decreased by 30.3% year-on-year and 1.1% month on month. Trucks and buses decreased year-on-year, and heavy trucks decreased significantly. It is expected that it is mainly due to the demand overdraft caused by the implementation of national six year plan. In November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 450000, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1%. It continues to refresh the production and sales record of the current month, and the penetration rate is as high as 17.8%. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the industrial chain.
Main points
In November, the sales volume of passenger cars decreased year-on-year and increased month on month. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in November, the retail sales of narrow passenger car market reached 1.816 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% and a month on month increase of 6.0%; The wholesale sales volume was 2.15 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1% and a month on month increase of 8.9%. The demand for passenger cars is still strong and the inventory level remains low, but the chip shortage combined with the repeated epidemic in China is still an important restrictive factor leading to the decline of production and sales. The subsequent gradual mitigation is expected to promote the growth of production and sales. It is suggested to make a positive layout. In November, 210000 luxury cars were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, an increase of 4% compared with November 2019. The demand for high-end replacement brought by consumption upgrading is still strong. Mainstream joint venture brands decreased by 23% year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the relatively large impact of chip shortage. Independent brands increased by 2% year-on-year. Independent head enterprises have strong industrial chain toughness and effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage. In addition, new energy sales have performed well. Among them Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC motor has a high growth rate, and relevant auto enterprises and supply chains are expected to benefit.
In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles continued to be under pressure in the short term. According to the data of China Automobile Association, commercial vehicle sales in November were 330000, a year-on-year decrease of 30.3%. Among them, 290000 trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 31.9%; Affected by the full implementation of national six emission in July, some demands are overdrawn in advance, so the sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In the long run, the treatment of “large ton and small standard” will reduce the single vehicle capacity of the original light truck models exceeding the standard, which is expected to increase the sales of compliant light trucks and medium trucks. The sales of passenger cars were 40000, a year-on-year decrease of 16.5%. The sales of large, medium and light models were basically the same month on month, and the year-on-year decrease of light passenger cars was relatively small. With the improvement of China’s epidemic situation and economic recovery, it is expected that the subsequent sales of large and medium-sized buses are expected to recover gradually.
In November, the sales volume of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year and continued to set a new record. In November, 450000 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 121.1%, continuing to refresh the production and sales record of the current month. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 427000, with a year-on-year increase of 125.9% and a penetration rate of 19.5%; Among them, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han / Qin / song, Tesla Model3 / Y and Wuling Hongguang miniev are popular, which makes Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and SAIC GM Wuling perform well, and relevant auto enterprises and industrial chains are expected to benefit. The sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 23000, a year-on-year increase of 57.3%; The sales volume of new energy passenger cars above 7 meters decreased by 33.5% year-on-year, of which Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Zhongtong Bus Co.Ltd(000957) and CRRC electric sales ranked among the top three. It is expected that the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed 3.4 million, and the follow-up is expected to continue to grow at a high speed. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant industrial chains.
From January to October, the growth rate of revenue and profit of the automobile industry fell. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to October 2021, the key enterprise groups of automobile industry realized an operating revenue of 3256.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; The total profit was 253.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. With the gradual recovery of the auto market, the operating revenue and total profit are expected to maintain growth, but the cumulative growth rate may decline.
Investment advice
Complete vehicle: the sales volume of passenger vehicles has picked up, but the differentiation of vehicle enterprises has intensified. It is recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . Commercial vehicle heavy truck and light truck are expected to maintain a high boom, paying attention to Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) .
Parts and components: with the recovery of automobile sales, the performance is expected to recover and form a double-click with the valuation. It is recommended to lay out individual stocks for product upgrading, customer expansion and undervalued repair, recommend Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , and pay attention to Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) , etc.
New energy: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to explode in 2022, with strong certainty of subsequent high growth. Recommend China’s leading Byd Company Limited(002594) , as well as Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) made by Tesla and Volkswagen MEB, and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , etc.
Intelligent Internet connection: ADAS and intelligent cockpit are rapidly infiltrated, and Huawei, Xiaomi and others accelerate industrial development. Recommend Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , and pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , etc.
Risk statement
1) Car sales are lower than expected; 2) Shortage and price increase of raw materials; 3) The price of the products has been greatly reduced.
