investment strategy
Industry review:
In terms of market performance, since the beginning of the year, machinery has increased by 14%, ranking 10th, and the performance is above medium. The industries of laser processing equipment, photovoltaic equipment, semiconductor equipment and lithium battery equipment have led the rise, up 122%, 65%, 49% and 37% respectively. From the perspective of various machinery industries, the growth certainty next year is still very high. We believe that the prosperity of machinery related fields is expected to continue until next year.
Focus on the long-term growth track and grasp the cycle growth:
1) Lithium battery equipment: the global automobile has entered the wave of electrification. Driven by high demand, power battery enterprises at home and abroad are vigorously expanding production, and a new round of capacity expansion arms race has started. At present, 21 enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG new energy, AVIC lithium battery, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , ski, Byd Company Limited(002594) , have planned production capacity of more than 3155 GWH. The demand for lithium battery equipment has entered a steep period. According to our calculation, if the five-year replacement cycle of lithium battery equipment, the proportion of effective capacity, energy storage market, electric tools and other market factors are not considered, the global average annual new demand for equipment is calculated to be 96.7 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025. If the above factors are considered, the global average annual new demand for equipment is 171.5 billion yuan from 2023 to 2025. Highlight Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co.Ltd(002957) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) and Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) .
2) Photovoltaic equipment: under the background of global carbon neutrality, the installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to increase rapidly. Cost reduction and efficiency increase drive technological progress. At present, new technologies in all links of the photovoltaic industry chain are developing rapidly. Large size and flake of silicon chip link is the trend. There is limited room for improving the efficiency of cell chip link and perc battery in the future. N-type battery technology is gradually mature. Hjt may become the next generation mainstream technology and component link. The corresponding technological updates include half chip, laminated tile Multiple main grids, etc. Benefiting from the business cycle of the industry, the demand for photovoltaic equipment will increase rapidly to support the rapid growth of performance. Focus on Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , etc.
2) Cultivating diamonds: at present, the penetration rate of cultivated diamonds is increasing. According to the latest data disclosed on the official website of Indian diamond import and export, the imported cultivated diamond rubble in November was US $85 million, a year-on-year increase of 37.15%, and the penetration rate was 7.58%, an increase of 0.63 PCT over the previous month. In November, the export of cultivated diamonds was 86 million US dollars, with a year-on-year increase of 24.45% and a penetration rate of 6.18%, an increase of 0.77 PCT over the previous month. In the future, with the optimization of cultivation technology and the change of consumption concept of millennials and Z generation, we are very optimistic about its future development trend. The average annual market scale of benchmarked natural diamonds is US $12-13 billion. We believe that the potential market space of diamond cultivation in the future can be benchmarked, which is expected to reach about 80 billion yuan. At the same time, the cultivation of diamonds will also be popularized to more application scenarios that were not popularized by the original natural diamonds. It is not only a substitute for natural diamonds, but is expected to stimulate more market demand. Key recommendations: Henan Huanghe Whirlwind Co.Ltd(600172) , North Industries Group Red Arrow Co.Ltd(000519) , Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) , Sf Diamond Co.Ltd(300179) , Beijing Worldia Diamond Tools Co.Ltd(688028) , Sinomach Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002046) .
4) Construction machinery: in 2021, the construction machinery industry showed a trend of high before and low after. The main reason is that the policy regulation of the real estate industry combined with the release of special bonds is not as expected, resulting in the decline in the construction volume of infrastructure projects and the downturn of China's economy. Looking forward to next year, China's policies support the acceleration of real estate and special bond issuance. We are optimistic that construction machinery will start in the peak season next year. In terms of export, overseas epidemic situations are repeated, and the production of overseas competitors is limited. The stable operation of Chinese enterprises provides conditions for domestic brands to go overseas. Each main engine factory quickly enters the overseas market by virtue of its advantages, From January to November 2021, the cumulative export sales of excavators reached 59800 units, reaching 95.91% year-on-year. It is expected that the export growth will continue next year. Focus on Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) , Shaanxi Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(600984) , Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) .
5) Oil and gas equipment: since late April last year, the oil price has continued to rise, and Brent oil price has climbed all the way from the negative range to above $80 / barrel. The main reason is that the tight global energy supply has led to a sharp rise in prices. Compared with natural gas and coal, the low oil price has led to the expected growth of alternative demand. In addition, the global oil inventory is relatively low, and the oil price has been supported, Continuous upward. In this context, the prosperity of the oil and gas equipment industry continues to improve, and it is recommended to focus on Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) .
6) Semiconductor equipment: with the development of emerging industries such as 5g, Internet of things, artificial intelligence and automotive electronics, the semiconductor industry has entered a new rising cycle. In addition, the global core shortage problem continues, and the continuous expansion of wafer factories will significantly drive the demand for semiconductor equipment. According to SEMI statistics, by 2022, 29 wafers will be expanded worldwide, and up to 2 million 600 thousand wafers can be produced per month. It is estimated that the equipment of 29 wafers will exceed 140 billion dollars. Among them, China and Taiwan, Chinese mainland will build 8 wafers, leading the way to create the advantage for domestic semi conductor equipment. Moreover, major countries in the world have raised semiconductor technology to the level of national security strategy, and have issued a large number of policies to promote the development of semiconductor industry. Under the background that the United States continues to suppress Chinese semiconductor enterprises, China has issued a series of encouragement and support policies to vigorously support the development of semiconductor industry chain. Local semiconductor equipment manufacturers have also ushered in a golden period of rapid growth. Focus on Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Suzhou Hyc Technology Co.Ltd(688001) , Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Gl Tech Co.Ltd(300480) , etc.
7) . service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) : we are optimistic about the potential service Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) segment, the mowing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry. The global mower market will be $28.5 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach $41.44 billion in 2025. However, in 2020, the global mowing Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) market will sell only 900000 units, with a market value of more than $1 billion and a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%, with great growth space, Focus on No. 9 company. Sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry. At present, the market penetration of sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) in China has just exceeded 5%, and 10% and 15% in European and American developed countries. It still has great potential in the future. In addition, the base number of new floor washers is small and the growth momentum is strong. It is mainly recommended Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) . Surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry. On August 30 this year, Beijing has included the surgery and disposable supporting consumables supported by "Tianji" orthopaedic surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) into the scope of medical insurance payment for the first time. It is worth looking forward to other provinces in the future. The orthopaedic surgery Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industry is expected to usher in a performance explosion, focusing on Tinavi Medical Technologies Co.Ltd(688277) .
8) Industrial automation and forklift: from the historical data, industrial automation is a cyclical growth industry, showing a complete cycle of 3-4 years, an upward cycle of 2-3 years and a downward cycle of 1-2 years. This cycle starts from 19 years. We think this upward cycle can last until the first half of next year, and then the growth rate will gradually slow down, However, forklift and industrial automation are growing industries. In the long run, intelligent manufacturing is the development trend, and domestic substitution is also developing rapidly. We are still optimistic about forklift and industrial automation for a long time. Long term recommendation: Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Guangdong Topstar Technology Co.Ltd(300607) , Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) , Noblelift Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(603611) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) , Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(300747) , Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) etc.
Risk tips: Overseas epidemic control is less than expected, trade friction is intensified, localization progress is less than expected, industry competition is intensified, China's real estate investment is less than expected, and export is weak.
