Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) (002534)
Report summary
Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) is gradually becoming a supplier of overall solutions for energy utilization (power generation, energy storage, unit flexibility transformation, etc.). In the first in-depth report, we focused on the development prospect of the company’s core main business waste heat boiler under the background of 3060 goal. In this report, we focused on the energy storage side and discussed the growth of the company in the field of heating as a pioneer of molten salt energy storage (physical energy storage) in China under the general development trend of energy storage industry.
Under the background of double carbon policy, the energy storage industry has ushered in a period of rapid growth. Energy storage is divided into physical energy storage and chemical energy storage; Among them, physical energy storage includes pumped energy storage, molten salt energy storage and flywheel energy storage, while chemical energy storage includes battery energy storage and hydrogen energy storage. The technical maturity and application scenarios of different energy storage forms vary. At present, the scale of pumped storage is the largest, accounting for about 90% in the world and China. New energy storage is experiencing rapid development. Among them, the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage has increased rapidly. From 2017 to the first half of 2021, the Chinese market scale CAGR was close to 90%; Molten salt energy storage (heat storage) technology is highly mature, and the commercial demonstration pilot ( Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) ) has been completed Xizi zero carbon plant project), with great commercial space potential. Energy storage is an important means to solve the intermittence and instability of new energy and improve the efficiency, security and economy of conventional power system and regional energy system. With the introduction of a series of national support policies, the energy storage market is ushering in an explosion.
There is a broad space for heating market, and molten salt energy storage has great potential. Under the pressure of environmental protection, The traditional coal-fired heating mode (thermal power plant and boiler room) faces great pressure on carbon emission reduction. The coal-fired heating mode will be gradually replaced or transformed. Among them, low-quality heating is suitable for flexible transformation (HEPP energy model); high quality heating can be replaced by molten salt energy storage heating and natural gas heating. The molten salt energy storage heating technology is mature, and it mainly uses valley power as the heat source to meet the large-scale steam demand of industrial parks (such as chemical fiber papermaking). With the introduction of the national time of use electricity price mechanism, some regions The difference between peak and valley electricity prices (such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangsu and other places) has been further widened, and the molten salt energy storage heating mode has been initially economical (that is, the cost is lower than that of natural gas heating and other modes. For example, in Guangdong Province, the cost of molten salt energy storage heating is 267 yuan / ton of steam, which is lower than that of gas heating of 279 yuan / ton of steam, which is more ideal to replace coal-fired heating). Considering only the demand for steam and hot water in the industrial field, the annual demand for the stock transformation of molten salt energy storage heating is 179.7 billion yuan, the one-time fixed investment is 692.7 billion yuan, and the molten salt energy storage city The curtain has slowly opened.
Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) : a supplier of overall solutions for energy utilization, management change and stimulate growth momentum. ① Traditional waste heat boiler: the company is the largest and most complete waste heat boiler development and manufacturing base in China. It is the world leader in the field of gas turbine waste heat boiler. At the same time, it actively develops equipment in other fields of energy conservation and environmental protection; ② Molten salt energy storage: the company has been deeply engaged in solar thermal power generation for more than ten years, and moved the solar thermal energy storage technology module to the field of physical energy storage. It has profound industrial foundation and practical experience. The demonstration of Xizi aviation zero carbon plant energy storage project is of great significance and promotes the tide of commercialization; ③ Management reform: in 2019, the company introduced Huawei’s management reform and implanted the striver oriented incentive mechanism into the management system. The effect is remarkable. The company’s orders, performance and operating capacity have been significantly improved. From 2019 to 2021, the expected CAGR of orders is 49%, the expected CAGR of revenue is 34%, and the turnover rate of inventory and accounts receivable has been greatly improved. This change has laid a solid foundation for the implementation of the company’s physical energy storage product strategy.
Upgrade to “buy” rating. Not considering the acquisition of HEPP energy temporarily, and considering the impact of changes in raw material prices on the company’s profitability, we adjust the company’s profit forecast, It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 506 / 852 / 1172 million yuan (the previous value is 584 / 805 / 1057 million yuan), with a corresponding valuation of 42 / 25 / 18 times. The company is the pioneer of molten salt energy storage in China. With the advent of the commercialization of molten salt energy storage and heating, the company is expected to fully benefit. The value of energy storage business needs to be revalued, so we raise it to the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the industrialization process of molten salt energy storage is less than expected, the expansion progress of the company’s molten salt energy storage business is less than expected, the risk of decline in profitability caused by the rise in the price of raw materials, the risk of deviation in the calculation of industry market scale, the risk of order landing less than expected, etc.
