In November 2021, the single ticket income of the whole industry rebounded month on month. In November 2021, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and the growth rate decreased by 4.3 PCT compared with October; The business revenue reached 107.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1pct compared with October; The single ticket revenue was about 9.49 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% and a month on month increase of 3.8%. In November 2021, the CR8 index of express industry was 80.7, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 and a month on month decrease of 0.1. On the whole, although the average single ticket revenue of the express industry has continued to decline since this year, the CR8 index remained unchanged from June to October this year and decreased slightly in November, which reflects that the overall price war of the industry is becoming more and more rational.
In November 2021, the average single ticket revenue of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) continued to rise month on month. In November 2021, the average single ticket revenue of express business in Zhejiang Province was about 5.71 yuan, an increase of 0.27 yuan month on month The average single ticket income of express business in (Yiwu) region was about 3.31 yuan, an increase of 0.37% month on month; the average single ticket income of express business in Guangdong Province was about 7.98 yuan, an increase of 0.30 yuan month on month, and the average single ticket income of express business in Guangzhou was about 7.04 yuan, an increase of 0.32 yuan month on month. The main reason was that some express companies appropriately raised express prices during the double 11.
In November 2021, the zero proportion of physical online shopping agencies continued to increase month on month. In November 2021, the total amount of social zero in China increased by 3.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 1.0pct compared with October; Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 7.4% year-on-year and decreased by 1.3pct month on month compared with October; The zero proportion of physical online shopping agencies (online retail sales of physical goods / total national social retail sales) was 31.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.06pct. Overall, the zero growth rate of physical online shopping agencies has slowed down significantly since this year, with a cumulative growth rate of 13.2% from January to November, lower than the growth rate in the same period of 19 and 20 years (19.7% and 15.7%); the zero proportion of physical online shopping agencies from January to November was 24.5%, compared with the same period last year (25.0%) decreased slightly; however, the business volume growth of the whole express industry remained at a high level, with a cumulative growth rate of 32.3% from January to November, higher than the growth rate in the same period of 19 and 20 years (25.4% and 30.5%).
In November 2021, the single ticket revenue of Tongda express company increased significantly. In November 2021, the business volume growth of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in a single month was 15.4%, 19.0%, 13.4% and 16.7% respectively, including Yunda The growth rate of Shentong is higher than the average growth rate of the industry (16.5%); the market shares of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in the current month were about 9.1%, 16.6%, 15.4% and 10.4% respectively. Except SF, the share of other companies decreased compared with October. In November 2021, the monthly single ticket income of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong were 15.82 yuan, 2.38 yuan, 2.59 yuan and 2.46 yuan respectively, with a month on month change of – 0.1 yuan, + 0.21 yuan, + 0.30 yuan and + 0.35 yuan respectively, the same as the previous month The ratio changes by -0.34 yuan, + 0.03 yuan, + 0.28 yuan and + 0.07 yuan respectively. After entering the peak season in November, under the background of slowing down the price war, Tongda express company has obvious effect of raising prices.
Investment suggestion: with the government’s increasing regulation of the express industry, Jitu acquired the express business of Baishi China, the price war in the industry slowed down, and the single ticket income of some express companies continued to improve, promoting the repair of profits; We believe that the price war in the industry is slowing down or will continue to be verified, and the profit improvement potential of head express companies is greater. We maintain the industry’s “overweight” rating, recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and suggest paying attention to Zhongtong Express (H) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) .
Risk analysis: the macroeconomic downturn leads to the decline of express demand; The growth of e-commerce was lower than the market expectation, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of express demand; The penetration rate of online shopping increased slowly; The competition in the express industry exceeded expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in single ticket revenue.
