In November 2021, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, knitwear and textiles decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate narrowed by 2.8pct month on month; From January to November, the clothing agency increased by 14.9%.
Recently, we launched Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) series report 2, which mainly studied the development path of Chinese and Japanese camping and the main representative company snowpeak. The historical valuation of snowpeak fluctuated 50-60 times. Compared with the valuation of snowpeak, we gave 30-45 times of brand business and 20 times of OEM in Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) 22 years, corresponding to the target market value of 3-3.79 billion yuan and the target price of 45-56.8 yuan.
At present, we mainly recommend three main lines:
(1) Recommendation of growing varieties: 1) recommend Baoxiniao Holding Co.Ltd(002154) for the subject with extended store space; 2) high view racetrack: the epidemic superposition and double reduction policy drives the hot demand for camping and benefits tent sales, and recommend Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) ; 3) recommend Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) and Bosideng, and benefit the subject: Shenzhou International;
(2) Varieties of performance inflection points: 1) pay attention to the stocks damaged by the epidemic situation: recommend Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) , Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) ; 2) Jiangsu Hongdou Industrial Co.Ltd(600400) cooperate with Junzhi consulting. It is in the investment period this year and next year. The business is expected to be transformed and improved in the future. Pay attention to Jiangsu Hongdou Industrial Co.Ltd(600400) and the benefit targets Zhejiang Aokang Shoes Co.Ltd(603001) , Joeone Co.Ltd(601566) ;
(3) Recommended undervalued value of value varieties + Shenzhen Fuanna Bedding And Furnishing Co.Ltd(002327) with high dividend yield.
Market review: underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.25%
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.93%, the gem index fell 0.94%, the SW textile and garment sector fell 1.18%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.25pct and the gem index by 0.24pct. Among them, SW clothing and home textiles fell 1.75% and SW textile manufacturing rose 0.10%. At present, the 22pe of SW textile and garment industry is 15.70x. This week, footwear performed best, with an increase of 6.02%; Leisure performance was the worst, down 5.15%.
Market data tracking: China Cotton 328 fell 0.03%
As of December 17, China’s cotton 328 index was 21876 yuan / ton, down 0.03% this week; China’s imported cotton price index (1% tariff) was 19730 yuan / ton, up 2.24% this week. As of December 16, the closing price of cotlooka index (1% tariff) was 18611 yuan / ton, down 0.50% this week. Overall, the cotton price difference between inside and outside this week was 2146 yuan / ton, down 440 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.
As of December 16, the composite index of the Eastern market of Australian Wool Exchange was 1358 Australian cents / kg, equivalent to 61988.63 yuan / ton (a $1 = 4.5647 yuan), down 0.15% from 1360 Australian cents / kg on December 9.
According to the General Administration of customs, in November 2021, the export amount of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 22.82% year-on-year; In the first 11 months, the cumulative export amount of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 25.10% year-on-year. In November 2021, the export value of textile yarn, fabrics and products increased by 10.01% year-on-year; In the first 11 months, the cumulative export amount of textile yarn, fabrics and products decreased by 7.50% year-on-year.
In November 2021, the completed housing area in China increased by 15.41% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 35.96 PCT compared with October; From January to November 2021, the total completed housing area in China increased by 16.20% year-on-year, and the increase narrowed by 0.1pct compared with that from January to October.
Risk statement
Second outbreak of the epidemic; Fluctuation risk of raw materials; Systemic risk.
