This week's view: power coal: in terms of supply, a few coal mines in the producing area have reduced production and stopped production due to the impact of lack of tickets, reversing the working face and overproduction, and the commencement has dropped somewhat. Affected by the Xiaoyi accident in Shanxi, Shanxi and Shaanxi began to investigate safety accidents, which is expected to have an impact on the later coal supply. In terms of demand, the cold air is coming quietly. In the future cold wave in many southern provinces, the daily consumption of power plants will increase slowly. As of December 15, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 35.272 million tons, the weekly chain ratio decreased by 702000 tons, the daily consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the chain ratio increased by 42000 tons. At present, the coal supply is mainly guaranteed by changxiehe, and the inventory of power plants has increased rapidly, which is generally higher than that in the same period of previous years. On the whole, the coal mine safety production starts to pay close attention to at the end of the year, and the output will drop somewhat. However, the effect of early supply guarantee is obvious, the power plant inventory is at a high level, and the procurement demand is not strong. In addition, the industrial and civil power is not expected to be optimistic. In some areas, the cement and steel industries have entered the peak staggering production cycle in winter, and the market coal procurement demand is not much, It is expected that the short-term power coal price may run stably. Coking coal: in terms of supply, coal mines in producing areas continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. In terms of demand, the operating rate of coking plant has increased, the inventory and available days have increased, and the demand continues to pick up. Overall, under the condition of coke replenishment, the range of coking coal price increase this week is expanded, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal price is expected to be strong. Coke: in terms of supply, the operating rate of coking plant has increased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace continued to fall slightly, the coke inventory of steel mills and ports increased, and the coke inventory of coking plants decreased. Overall, with the continuous recovery of steel plant operating rate, coke price stabilized. A few steel mills have implemented the first round of coke price rise. Under the rise of coking coal price, the rise of coke price is expected to land. It is expected that the short-term coke price is expected to run strongly.
1. Thermal coal: the price of thermal coal in Chinese ports operated smoothly this week. On December 17, the latest transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 942 yuan / ton, the same as last Friday; In terms of origin price, on December 17, the plate price of 5500 large trucks in the southern suburb of Datong, Shanxi was 985 yuan / ton, the same as last Friday; On December 17, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.9 million tons, an increase of 30000 tons over last Friday. In terms of demand, the cold air is coming quietly. In the future cold wave in many southern provinces, the daily consumption of power plants will increase slowly. As of December 15, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 35.272 million tons, the weekly chain ratio decreased by 702000 tons, the daily consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the chain ratio increased by 42000 tons. At present, the coal supply is mainly guaranteed by changxiehe, and the inventory of power plants has increased rapidly, which is generally higher than that in the same period of previous years. In terms of inventory, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port on December 17 was 4.9 million tons, an increase of 30000 tons over last Friday. In terms of supply, a small number of coal mines in the producing area reduced production and stopped production due to the impact of lack of tickets, reversing the working face and overproduction, and the commencement fell somewhat. Affected by the Xiaoyi accident in Shanxi, Shanxi and Shaanxi began to investigate safety accidents, which is expected to have an impact on the later coal supply. In terms of import, as of December 17, Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) Australian coal q5500 warehouse raised the price by 1305 yuan / ton, a decrease of 50 yuan / ton compared with last Friday; Guangzhou Port Company Limited(601228) the price of Indonesian coal q5500 warehouse increased by 1305 yuan / ton, a decrease of 50 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. Overall, in terms of supply, a few coal mines in the producing area have reduced production and stopped production due to the impact of lack of tickets, reversing the working face and overproduction, and the commencement has dropped somewhat. Affected by the Xiaoyi accident in Shanxi, Shanxi and Shaanxi began to investigate safety accidents, which is expected to have an impact on the later coal supply. In terms of demand, the cold air is coming quietly. In the future cold wave in many southern provinces, the daily consumption of power plants will increase slowly. As of December 15, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 35.272 million tons, the weekly chain ratio decreased by 702000 tons, the daily consumption was 2.034 million tons, and the chain ratio increased by 42000 tons. At present, the coal supply is mainly guaranteed by changxiehe, and the inventory of power plants has increased rapidly, which is generally higher than that in the same period of previous years. On the whole, the coal mine safety production starts to pay close attention to at the end of the year, and the output will drop somewhat. However, the effect of early supply guarantee is obvious, the power plant inventory is at a high level, and the procurement demand is not strong. In addition, the industrial and civil power is not expected to be optimistic. In some areas, the cement and steel industries have entered the peak staggering production cycle in winter, and the market coal procurement demand is not much, It is expected that the short-term power coal price may run stably.
2. Coking coal: the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port this week was 2350 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. The coking coal market operated smoothly this week. In terms of demand, the comprehensive operating rate of coking plant this week was 62.15%, up 0.28% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, in absolute terms, the coking coal inventory of 100 sample coking plants in China this week totaled 6.0987 million tons, an increase of 176000 tons over last Friday; In terms of relative quantity, the average available days of coking coal storage in coking plant are 15.45 days, an increase of 0.3 compared with last Friday. In terms of supply, coal mines in the producing area continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. Overall, in terms of supply, coal mines in producing areas continued to reduce production. Considering safety production, coking coal supply is still expected to tighten in December. In terms of demand, the operating rate of coking plant has increased, the inventory and available days have increased, and the demand continues to pick up. Overall, under the condition of coke replenishment, the range of coking coal price increase this week is expanded, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal price is expected to be strong.
3. Coke: the closing price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary coke this week was 2680 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last Friday; The factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was 2560 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. The coke market is weak this week. In terms of demand, the national blast furnace operating rate was 46.41%, down 0.28% from last Friday. In terms of inventory, the coke inventory of 110 Chinese sample steel mills this week totaled 4.2743 million tons, an increase of 109000 tons over last Friday. The coke inventory of 100 independent coking plants in China totaled 601200 tons, down 127800 tons from last Friday. The total port inventory was 1.648 million tons, an increase of 177000 tons over last Friday. In terms of supply, the comprehensive operating rate of the coking plant this week was 62.15%, down 0.57% from last Friday. Overall, in terms of supply, the operating rate of coking plant has increased. In terms of demand, the operating rate of blast furnace continued to fall slightly, the coke inventory of steel mills and ports increased, and the coke inventory of coking plants decreased. Overall, with the continuous recovery of steel plant operating rate, coke price stabilized. A few steel mills have implemented the first round of coke price rise. Under the rise of coking coal price, the rise of coke price is expected to land. It is expected that the short-term coke price is expected to run strongly.
Risk tips: the macro economy has fallen sharply, the coal price has fallen sharply, the coke production limit is less than expected, the coal price has been regulated by policy, a large number of new production capacity has been released, the policy of imported coal has been tightened, and the coal management ticket in Yulin has been released
