Event: the State Post Office announced the operation of the postal industry in November 2021. The business volume of national express service enterprises reached 9.95 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%; Business income reached 90.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%.
comment:
The double 11 price increase has a significant effect, and the industry has broken the inner volume and ushered in the blood returning period: with the help of the double 11 peak season, it is a tradition for the express industry to rise prices in line with the trend. However, the double 11 price increase is more obvious than in previous years. On the one hand, the previous price war was too fierce, resulting in excessive blood loss in the industry and the need for blood return; On the other hand, the constraints of industry supervision make it difficult for enterprises to fall into prisoner's dilemma, and there is a better price rise environment.
This month, the unit price of express delivery increased significantly year-on-year and month on month. Overall, the unit price of non local parts increased by 3 cents month on month, and the year-on-year decrease narrowed to 7%. In terms of the headquarters of Tongda department, the unit price of Shentong Yuantong increased by 3 cents month on month, and that of Yunda increased by more than 20 cents month on month. The unit price of Yiwu, an important express Town, increased by 0.37 yuan month on month. Most industry price indicators showed significant improvement in November.
SF's unit price decreased month on month, which we believe is mainly caused by the increase in the proportion of e-commerce parts during the double 11. Compared with the same period last year (the unit price of SF fell by about 1.3 yuan month on month in November last year), the price performance of SF during the double 11 this year is not poor.
Affected by last year's base and price increase, the growth rate of business volume declined: in November, the growth rate of business volume declined to 16.5%. It can be seen that the year-on-year growth rate of business volume in the whole year shows a downward trend. In addition to being limited by the high base of last year, the increase of express price has a certain inhibition on demand growth. However, it is obvious that the core variable of the current profit of express enterprises is price. If the industry price can stabilize and improve, enterprises can fully accept the slow decline of business volume growth.
There is still no gap in the growth rate of Chinese listed companies. The growth rate of Yuantong and Shunfeng decreased due to their high base last year. The growth rate of Shentong was significantly better than that in the first half of the year, and Yunda maintained its consistent steady style.
Strong demand growth in the central region: the growth rate of business volume in the central region has been significantly higher than that in the East and West since September. We believe that the express network construction in the eastern coastal parcel post area has been quite perfect. After the price war is limited, express companies have more energy and resources to invest in the network construction in the central and western regions, and the strong growth in the central region will continue.
The improvement of single piece profit will bring great profit elasticity to Tongda Enterprises: the impact of changes in policy and supervision on the industry is gradually emerging. Although the industry unit price is expected (deducting the standard of distribution fee) it is unrealistic to recover sharply in the short term, but as long as the price can stabilize, the profit margin will gradually recover with the continuous decline of the cost side. When the price war is the most intense, the single piece profit of Zhongtong, the industry leader, is about 20 cents, while the single piece profit of Yuantong and Yunda is less than 10 cents. The increase of unit price will bring great profit elasticity to the industry and the future development of the industry The price trend deserves special attention.
Risk tip: the epidemic lasted longer than expected and the price war in the industry intensified; Labor costs have risen sharply; Policy changes, etc.
