Core view
It is still early to turn the tide around (the industry has entered the capacity removal cycle for a long time), and the stability maintenance and rebound are expected (the data repair after the real estate liquidity crisis is alleviated in 2022 is expected to bring periodic rebound opportunities)
"Housing without speculation" has entered a strong implementation period. The decline in real estate sales, the cold of soil auction and the thunder of real estate enterprises are the concrete embodiment of this guiding principle. The real estate industry needs to restructure supply and demand, and the decline in the total amount of real estate is inevitable. Under this premise, building materials as the post cycle of real estate, and the concentration of most fine industries is very low, De capacity and industry integration is an inevitable process and there is a lot of room, which is also the basis for the bottom recovery of fundamentals. This process cannot be skipped. Superimposed on the background of "carbon neutralization" and "carbon peak", we judge that de capacity is the tone of the building materials industry for a long time.
At present, the building materials industry is in the early stage of this round of capacity reduction, and the overall industry β Weak. However, the downward cycle of the industry is the inspection company α The best way is to focus on the strategic planning, risk management (including cash flow management) ability and market share improvement of enterprises under the downward cycle of the industry.
There is a periodic rebound under the large downward cycle, which is more likely to occur at the initial stage of the downward cycle. We believe that there is a large periodic opportunity in 2022. The core of the rebound lies in the data repair after the real estate liquidity crisis is lifted. A more a priori indicator is the emergence of policies that can truly solve the real estate liquidity crisis, such as the three red line policy of real estate, temporarily excluding the impact of M & A of leading real estate enterprises, etc.
Fine molecule industry: 1) cement: pay attention to the price catalysis brought by the phased repair of real estate construction; 2) Glass: after completion, there is support under guaranteed delivery, but the supply pressure remains; 3) Glass fiber: at present, the glass fiber industry is in a balance between supply and demand. The demand side mainly focuses on the marginal changes of demand in wind power, electronics, automobile, building materials and other industries, and the supply side focuses on the uncertain supply increment; 4) Consumer building materials: the concentration of water-proof, pipe, coating, ceramic tile and other fine molecule industries is still low, the overall overcapacity, and there is a large space for the industry to reduce production capacity. We pay attention to the improvement of enterprise market share and the emotional catalysis brought by data repair after the real estate liquidity crisis is lifted; 5) Other sectors: focus on the aluminum template leasing industry, increase the penetration rate and boost the growth of the industry. It is expected to get out of the bottom of profits in 2021 with the help of the lifting of aluminum price and liquidity crisis in 2022.
Risk tip: the real estate stability maintenance policy is less than the expected risk, the real estate sales and new construction data are less than the expected risk, and the penetration of aluminum formwork is less than the expected risk.
