Core view
This report will focus on the coffee industry that has developed rapidly in recent years: 1) resume the changes of China’s coffee market, analyze the deep logic of the rise of the coffee market and the driving force of industry development iteration; 2) Analyze the supply side competition pattern to provide reference and thinking for the future market development direction; 3) Finally, go back to the upstream of the coffee industry to see what impact the downstream development may have on the upstream.
After instant coffee entered China, China’s coffee market has experienced decades of changes. Now it has entered the stage of quality consumption and rapid growth, and new brands have risen one after another. Analyzing the reasons behind the rise of coffee, we believe that the gradual maturity of coffee consumption on the demand side, the gradual optimization of product structure on the supply side, the superposition of underlying logic changes and the acceleration of industry iteration are the reasons for the outbreak of coffee market in recent years. At the same time, drawing on the development experience of Japanese coffee market, we believe that China’s coffee market is currently in a high growth stage and has a broad market space in the future, but whether the space breakthrough can be completed depends on the sinking market excavation.
With the gradual formation of consumers’ coffee drinking habits, the proportion of freshly ground coffee market will continue to increase. From the existing supply side competition pattern, Starbucks has absolute advantages under the large store mode. We believe that advantageous brands are expected to appear in the future under the middle price belt and small store mode. The emerging high-quality instant coffee brands are popular in the instant coffee track; Ready to drink coffee is highly concentrated, and traditional beverage and dairy giants have cross-border advantages.
Looking back at the upstream of the coffee industry chain, the global coffee market has entered a mature stage, and the production and sales are asymmetrically distributed. From the perspective of the Chinese market, Yunnan is a large coffee Province in China, with a planting area and output contribution of more than 90%. In the future, the rise of China’s downstream coffee market is expected to bring variety structure optimization and development opportunities for coffee planting in Yunnan, China.
Risk tips: 1) food safety risks; 2) The space breakthrough of coffee sinking market needs to be further verified; 3) The impact of epidemic situation exceeds the expected risk; 4) The sharp rise in raw material and labor costs affects profits; 5) Capital and new brands have been laid out one after another, and the industry competition has intensified.
