Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) (000893)
Opening old fellow railways reduces company transportation and procurement costs
In December 3rd, the first train of the old fellow China Railway was formally launched. The potash plant of Laos potash plant took the first freight train, and it only took 30 hours to transport Kunming from Laos Vientiane to Yunnan Kunming. The purchase and expansion of potash plant in Laos and the production materials also came mainly from China.
Focus on the main industry of potash fertilizer, and 750000 tons of new projects will reach production capacity
The company focuses on the core business of potash fertilizer and has stripped off its trade and shipping business in the third quarter. The company’s 750000 ton potassium chloride new project has been completed in the whole process and produced refined potassium products. The Laos potash plant has a total capacity of 1 million tons of potassium chloride.
The company’s long-term potash fertilizer capacity is expected to expand to 3 million tons, and the potash fertilizer market in Yunnan, Guizhou and Sichuan is expected to digest the company’s future output
The company plans to form a production capacity of 3 million tons of potash fertilizer within 3-5 years, and 50% of China’s potash fertilizer needs to be imported. Yunnan Guizhou Sichuan, which is close to Laos, is a large traditional agricultural province, with a large demand for potassium fertilizer, and is relatively far away from the maritime port, with an annual demand of about 1.9 million tons, which can digest the company’s future output.
Profit forecast
The price of 60% potassium chloride imported by China rose to 4000 yuan / ton, and the company received 616 million yuan of compensation from China farmers, which is the main source of profit this year. We expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company’s operating revenue will be RMB 700, RMB 2310 and RMB 3.300 billion respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 711, RMB 937 and RMB 1.45 billion respectively, and the EPS will be RMB 0.94, RMB 1.24 and RMB 1.92/share respectively, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 21.91 on December 13, and the P / E ratios will be 23, 18 and 11 times respectively. “Overweight” rating is given for the first time.
Risk statement
Macroeconomic risk, large fluctuation of potash fertilizer price, change of trade policy in Laos and lagging project progress
