Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486)
The growth rate during the double 12 period was not high, mainly due to the reduction of resource investment, the strong demand for clean appliances, and the continuous leadership of double brands
We estimate that the company’s overall gmv2.2 during the double 12 period 500 million (+ 20%), with a market share of 40%. The low growth rate is mainly due to the company’s concentration of resources, focusing on sales during the annual goods Festival and reducing the investment of resources during the double 12. The company has strong R & D strength, profound brand accumulation, intelligent leading industry, strong demand for clean electrical appliances, and the company’s dual brand leading advantage is obvious. Maintaining the profit forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be RMB 2.09/28.7/3.72 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 3.02 billion 7 / 5.0 / 6.5 yuan, the current share price corresponding to PE is 42.6 / 30.9 / 23.9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The company has strong demand for floor sweepers without hidden worries. In 2022, the price band will be widened or drive high income growth
For the market’s concern about demand, we expect that the self-cleaning products in the industry after double 11 will account for 60% and the demand is strong. In 2021, the company first launched the universal base station X1 to occupy the high-end market. In 2022, it is expected to launch X1 series products with lower prices to drive large volume. We estimate that the average price of 3800 yuan and the sales volume of self-cleaning products account for 70%. It is estimated that the sales volume of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) floor sweepers will be + 31% in 2022. There is no need for the market to worry too much. It is expected that X1 series products will be mainly sold in 2022, which will be greatly improved compared with the average price of N9 +. Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand positioning is high-end, with obvious advantages in offline channel expansion. Overseas performance is outstanding, and the offline sales of Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) brand in the United States during the black five period + 189%.
The high growth of floor washing machine business continues, the product power is outstanding, or a brand barrier has been formed
According to the business consultant, 2021m11 adds a washable machine to Ali channel Gmv + 167%. For double 12 period sales, 2021W49+W50 (November 29-December 12) Tianke dishwasher Ali channel Gmv + 142%, and the high growth trend of Tianke continued in December. More than 2021q3 brands entered the dishwasher track, but we believe that brand building is not a day’s work, and Tianke may have formed a brand wall with its excellent product strength and user group. It is expected that the launch of new products in 2022q1 can cover more scenes, and we are optimistic that Tianke will maintain its share in 2022 Leading edge.
The company has strong product R & D strength and is expected to form an intelligent first mover advantage
The company leads the industry in intelligence. The X1 sweeper platform continuously iterates on the aspects of wake-up times, voice communication and home environment data collection to improve AI intelligence and form an intelligent first mover advantage. In the future, it is expected to turn human-computer interaction into the main use of floor sweepers, master the right to define categories and consolidate the high-end brand image.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Rising risk of raw materials; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
