Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) (300699)
Investment summary:
Deep cultivation of military and civilian composite products leads the carbon fiber track
Carbon fiber belongs to the field of new chemical materials and is known as the king of new materials. It is widely used in wind power, hydrogen energy, aerospace and other national strategic emerging industries of made in China 2025. Therefore, the state has issued a number of policies to escort it, and the carbon fiber track is expected to be high-quality for a long time.
As one of the enterprises with the most advanced technology and the most complete industrial chain in China's carbon fiber industry, the company adheres to the two wheel drive of military and civil products, and has become the main supplier of military carbon fiber and global wind power giant Vestas, promoting the compound annual average growth rate of the company's revenue and parent net profit in recent five years as high as 26% and 27%. Domestic substitution accelerates the remodeling of carbon fiber pattern
The downstream of carbon fiber involves many high-quality tracks such as wind power, hydrogen energy and military industry, with huge growth space. At present, wind power blade is the largest carbon fiber application field in China. It is expected that the compound annual growth rate of global wind power equipment demand for carbon fiber will be as high as 25% in 2025. In addition, with the increase of Defense orders and the production of domestic large aircraft C919, the situation of low demand in China's aviation field (3%) is expected to be reversed.
The supply of high-end carbon fiber is basically monopolized by Japan and the United States, resulting in import dependence of more than 60%. However, with Japan and the United States strengthening carbon fiber export control, the proportion of domestic carbon fiber will increase by 6% in 2020, and the domestic substitution process will be significantly accelerated, which also provides greater growth space for the demand for carbon fiber. The leading edge is significant, and the military and civilian sectors advance together
High performance carbon fiber has complex process, long R & D cycle and high industry barriers. The company has long attached importance to R & D and is in a leading position in China in the field of high-performance carbon fiber. In recent five years, the proportion of R & D expenditure in revenue has been stable at about 11% - 17%, which is at a high level compared with similar companies.
Military products have high customer barriers, which also ensures the company's first mover advantage. As the largest supplier of military carbon fiber, the company's military product revenue is about twice that of Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) . Based on the stable supply of T300 for 10 years, the gradual large-scale production of t800h will bring new military product increment to the company.
Compared with Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , which is highly dependent on military products, the company's civil products business such as wind power carbon beam and hydrogen storage bottle has blossomed in many places, and has become the main supplier of wind power carbon beam of Vestas, a wind power giant (accounting for about 30% in 2020). Considering the rise of offshore wind power and the increase of the company's share, the growth rate of the company's carbon beam business is expected to be as high as 20% - 25% in the next five years. The performance growth of new projects can be expected
The company's "military civilian integration high-strength carbon fiber efficient preparation technology industrialization project" and high-strength and high modulus carbon fiber industrialization project have been put into operation and gradually in large quantities. Among them, t700s products have passed the certification of hydrogen storage bottle manufacturers and have been supplied in batches. In the future, it will gradually realize the import substitution of Japanese Toray products.
The first phase of Inner Mongolia large tow carbon fiber project is 4000 tons, which is expected to be put into operation in the middle of next year. The second and third phases will be constructed in combination with the market demand. It is expected to improve the self-sufficiency of large tow carbon fiber and reduce the production cost, so as to further thicken the company's performance.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 853 million, 1133 million and 1461 million respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 52, 39 and 30 respectively. According to the absolute valuation method, the company's reasonable share price is 116 yuan. Considering that the company's business scale and technology of both military products and wind power carbon beam are in the leading position in the industry, and the company's Inner Mongolia large tow project and raised investment project will be launched one after another, the company's performance still has a large growth space, and the "buy" rating is given for the first time.
Risk tips: project delay risk, product price decline risk, customer development risk, etc.
