Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) (600039)
Core view
Western Sichuan is rich in lithium resources, and the local infrastructure is expected to be greatly improved. Sichuan is rich in lithium ore resources, accounting for 57% of the country, but they are concentrated in Ganzi and Aba prefectures, with a low degree of development and backward construction of local transportation facilities, so it is difficult to realize the explored resources. With the leading position of Shudao group in infrastructure construction in Sichuan Province, we believe that it will be a win-win situation to exchange appropriate transportation infrastructure construction for local mineral resources.
With strong strength and rich resources, major shareholders will vigorously support the development of the company. Sichuan railway investment group and Sichuan communications investment group, the former major shareholders of the company, were strategically restructured at the beginning of this year, and Shudao group was established on May 28. As one of the core enterprises of Shudao group, Shudao group will unswervingly support the company to become bigger and stronger. Shudao group is the largest transportation infrastructure owner in Sichuan Province. According to the comprehensive transportation development plan of Sichuan Province in the 14th five year plan, the investment in comprehensive transportation construction will be 1.2 trillion yuan, including 700 billion yuan for roads and waterways and 300 billion yuan for railways, an increase of 20% / 40% / 30% respectively compared with the 13th five year plan.
The incentive mechanism is in place and the exercise conditions can be realized. According to the 10 / 21 restricted stock incentive plan, the company will grant no more than 43.75 million restricted shares to managers and core technicians at a price of 4.24 yuan per share. The performance assessment objective is 22-24 years. 1. The net profit deducted from non parent company shall not be less than 7 / 8 / 9 billion yuan; 2. The income shall not be less than RMB 100 / 110 / 120 billion; 3. The turnover rate of accounts receivable shall not be less than 5.7. We judge that the completion probability of this goal is high, and the thickening of subsequent performance is mainly due to the increase of newly signed contracts, which drives the increase of engineering business volume. The new bid winning amount in the first three quarters of 21 years was yoy + 107%.
The layout of new mineral materials has begun, and the subsequent implementation is expected to be accelerated. The first phase of ternary cathode material project (10000 tons / year) of xinlixiang company (65%) has been put into operation. In terms of lithium iron phosphate, the company plans to develop phosphorus ore resources and lithium iron phosphate project in Mabian county with a shareholding ratio of 67%. 10 / 28, Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) It is announced that it plans to transfer 5% equity of Sichuan energy investment lithium industry to the company. Based on the inherent advantages of the company and major shareholders in infrastructure construction in Sichuan Province and the need for better infrastructure for mineral transportation and processing, we judge that the company does not rule out continuing to make layout in minerals.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions: adjust EPS from 21 to 23 to 0.95/1.48/1.76 yuan (original value: 0.95 / 1.27 / 1.65). The performance of 22 to 23 years is revised up mainly because of the significant growth of new orders this year and the consolidation of acquired enterprises. Considering the steady growth of main business and the layout of new mineral materials, we give the company 11xpe for 22 years, with the corresponding target price of 16.28 yuan, and maintain "buy" grade.
Risk statement
Bad debt risk of accounts receivable, newly signed orders and their transformation are less than expected, and the expansion of new mineral materials is less than expected.
