Yankuang energy (600188)
Layout new energy and new materials, and start a new journey in the transformation of traditional energy. Maintain "buy" rating
The company issued the development strategy outline: on the basis of the existing industrial layout, determine the five industrial development directions of mining, high-end chemical new materials, new energy, high-end equipment manufacturing and intelligent logistics. The company has a clear energy transformation plan in the future and is expected to increase the volume of each industrial chain. As a high-quality A-share coal enterprise with the most international vision, the company is expected to achieve stable growth in performance. Considering that the project in the outline is in the planning stage, performance contribution is not considered. We maintain the previous profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 17.98/202.2/20.64 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 152.5% / 12.4% / 2.1%; EPS is 3.69/4.15/4.23 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current stock price, PE is 7.3/6.5/6.3 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Mining business: the planned volume of the main coal industry has increased, and the mining varieties have diversified
Strive to achieve a coal output scale of 300 million tons / year in 5-10 years: the coal output will be 110 million tons in 2020. Considering that under the background of carbon neutralization, coal enterprises are not willing to build new capacity in the future, and will rely more on asset injection in the future. At present, Shandong energy group, the controlling shareholder, has a coal output of 300 million tons. Expand molybdenum, gold, copper, iron, potassium and other mineral fields: metal mining is less affected by carbon neutralization, and sustained global economic growth will still bring stable demand. With the increase of the benchmark price of the long-term association (from 535 to 700 yuan / ton), the coal price is high for a long time, and the profit per ton is expected to increase significantly.
Coal chemical business: develop towards high-end, green and low-carbon, and plan more output
Strive to produce more than 20 million tons of chemical products in 5-10 years, of which new chemical materials and high-end chemical products account for more than 70%; the output of chemical products is less than 5 million tons, which is planned to increase three times. Coal enterprises have obvious resource advantages in coal chemical industry, high self-sufficiency rate of raw materials and low cost. At present, the company's products are mostly intermediate products and bulk goods, such as methanol, ethylene glycol, acetic acid, ethyl acetate, etc. in the future, it is planned to extend the existing industrial chain to high value-added products. In addition, the volume will be increased by building a new material base. Compared with large refining and chemical enterprises in the petrochemical field, they have basically realized the connection of the whole industrial chain and obtained polymer finished products. In addition, they are also developing to high-end products, such as metallocene polyolefin, photovoltaic EVA, etc.
New energy business: layout green power industries such as scenery and start hydrogen energy track
Strive to achieve an installed capacity of more than 10 million kilowatts of new energy power generation and a hydrogen supply capacity of more than 100000 tons / year in 5-10 years: the layout of wind power photovoltaic to achieve green power development is the general direction of the current policy, and the central economic work conference pointed out that the new renewable energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control; Relying on the existing industrial chain to realize hydrogen production, the by-hydrogen tail gas can be used to improve the added value of products. In the future, the national top-level plan for hydrogen energy is expected to be issued and become a key field of national development.
Risk tip: the economic recovery is not as expected, the coal price falls, the exchange rate fluctuates, and the progress of new production capacity lags behind
