Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) (300015)
Event: on December 17, 2021, the company announced the acquisition of the controlling rights of 14 ophthalmic hospitals, including Yiwu Aier, Yuanjiang Aier, Gaizhou Aier, Jiamusi Aier, Hezhou Aier, Beibei Aier, Guyuan Aier, Liangshan Aier, Ganzhou Aier, Fushun Aier, Tieling Aier, Qiqihar Aier, Huludao Aier and Yingkou Aier.
Epitaxial M & A brings some performance flexibility to the next city. This transaction involves 14 ophthalmic hospitals in total: from the perspective of regional distribution, it covers Zhejiang, Hunan, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Guangxi, Chongqing, Ningxia, Sichuan, Jiangxi and other provinces. All hospitals are located in the third tier and below cities, driving the sinking of channels; In terms of transaction amount, the total transaction price of equity involved in this acquisition is 501 million yuan, and the overall price of each hospital ranges from 20 million yuan to 100 million yuan; In terms of business volume, the 14 ophthalmic hospitals achieved a total operating revenue of 242 million yuan in 2020 and 286 million yuan from January to October 2021; From the perspective of valuation, according to the operating revenue in 2020, the PS traded by each hospital ranges from 1.9 to 5.9 times, and the PS traded as a whole is 3.1 times, which has a high discount compared with the current 19.4 times of PS of listed companies. Overall, we believe that this acquisition transaction is expected to further strengthen the company’s business network layout nationwide, bring some performance flexibility, and the acquisition price is relatively reasonable.
The in vitro incubation hospital has entered the mature stage and gradually and orderly incorporated into the system of listed companies. Since 2014, the company has established or acquired eye hospitals in vitro in the form of M & A fund, authorized the use of Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) brand, and enabled them through the management system. After years of incubation and cultivation, most eye hospitals have gradually entered the mature stage, and it will become normal to be gradually and orderly incorporated into the listed company system. According to the company’s announcement, since 2021, the company has completed four important mergers and acquisitions, involving 27 ophthalmic hospitals, with a total operating revenue of 599 million yuan in 2020. We believe that the mission of the hospital under the company’s M & A fund in the in vitro incubation stage has been completed, and the next few years will still be a key period for inclusion in listed companies. M & A is of great significance for stabilizing the company’s performance growth and improving the national layout.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 15.113 billion yuan, 18.974 billion yuan and 23.568 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.297 billion yuan, 3.046 billion yuan and 4.025 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 0.42 yuan, 0.56 yuan and 0.74 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 100.8 times, 76.0 times and 57.5 times respectively, maintaining the investment rating of overweight-a.
Risk warning: medical malpractice and negative event risk; M & A is less than expected risk.
