Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) (002386)
Core view
Planning the lithium iron phosphate integration project and improving the layout of cathode materials: Yibin Tianyuan Group Co.Ltd(002386) announced that it plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary holding company to invest in the construction of the lithium iron phosphate cathode material project with an annual output of 100000 tons, supporting the iron phosphate precursor project with an annual output of 100000 tons and the integrated wet purification phosphoric acid project with an annual output of 80000 tons. The planned investment of the project is RMB 2.389 billion, which is solved through self financing by the company. The construction cycle is expected to be 24 months, the source of funds is self financing by the company, and the annual net profit of the project is expected to be RMB 689 million. After successful operation, the company will become a rare enterprise in the industry with lithium iron phosphate and ternary cathode materials, and its ability to support the new energy industry will be further enhanced.
Self owned ferrophosphate resources and customer base have obvious advantages: phosphorus is the largest part of the cost of ferrophosphate, accounting for about 40%; The company has its own Mabian high-quality phosphate rock resources with an annual production capacity of 900000 tons (the grade is 26% – 28% and the reserve is more than 30 million tons), which corresponds to the annual supply capacity of about 250000 tons of P2O5, while the annual output of 100000 tons of iron phosphate needs about 50000 tons of P2O5 every year, so the supporting capacity of phosphorus source of the company is sufficient. The high titanium slag project supporting titanium chloride white in Pingshan base can produce a large number of high-quality iron raw materials by-product, and the supporting resources of phosphorus and iron of the company are complete, which will have obvious cost advantages. Yibin as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) As the location of the world-class lithium battery industry cluster, the company further shows the potential and first mover advantages of supporting new energy industries. We believe that on the basis of the company’s existing ternary cathode and Ningde strategic cooperation, the sales of lithium iron phosphate will also be guaranteed in the future.
Growth will continue to release: Yibin Libao ternary cathode, a joint-stock subsidiary, has reached an annual production capacity of 30000 tons, and the medium-term plan is to produce 150000 tons per year. Haifeng Hetai phase II titanium chloride plant with an annual output of 50000 tons has completed single machine commissioning and entered the overall commissioning stage, which is progressing smoothly. The annual capacity is expected to reach 100000 tons next year, and the medium-term plan is to have an annual output of 400000 tons. Changneng coal mine has an annual output of 450000 tons of high-quality anthracite, which is expected to be put into operation next year, which will open up the advantages of coal calcium carbide PVC integration, and continue to extend the value chain of traditional products such as PVC downstream high-performance pipelines. The company is in a period of rapid growth and release.
Financial forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company’s EPS will be 0.86/1.27/1.63 yuan in 21-23 years (excluding the lithium iron phosphate project). According to the price earnings ratio of 15 times that of the comparable company in 22 years, we will give the target price of 19.05 yuan and maintain the buy rating.
Risk statement
The launch of new capacity is less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of products and raw materials.
