Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (002120)
The transmission of price increase in peak season was smooth, and the ticket unit price increased year-on-year and month on month
Yunda’s ticket price in November was 2.38 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.04 yuan and a month on month increase of 0.21 yuan. The ticket price has continued to increase month on month since June, and the price rise in the peak season has been conducted smoothly as scheduled. In addition, given that the trough of e-commerce consumption tends to be flat in the slack and peak seasons, we expect that the growth rate of temporary cost investment of express enterprises is lower than that in previous years, so the probability of single ticket profit can rise significantly. Follow up suggestions focus on the end price trend after the peak season.
The daily average single volume reached a new high, and the growth rate was higher than that of the industry
From the perspective of single quantity, Yunda’s single quantity in November was 1.883 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, and the average daily single quantity was 62.77 million, reaching a new high overall. Under the trend of flat trough in the light and peak seasons of e-commerce consumption, it can still maintain a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 20%, Relative to the excessive growth of the industry (the year-on-year growth rate of single volume of the industry in November was 16.5%, Yuantong 13.4%, Shentong 16.7%). From the perspective of share, Yunda accounted for 16.6% of the market in November, with a year-on-year increase of 0.35pts.
Value restoration has three levels and two stages, and will enter the essential stage of profit restoration in the future
For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of this year, with the introduction of the policy, the price side gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it is about to enter the most essential level of value repair, that is, the profit repair level, and the corresponding market value performance has entered the core stage. We expect that Q4 and next year’s overall profit inflection point will be upward. In 2022, the single piece profit repair will superimpose the scale growth, and the performance may be highly flexible.
Profit forecast and valuation
We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.364 billion, RMB 1.967 billion and RMB 2.471 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.9%, + 44.2% and + 25.6% respectively. Considering the leading premium, single volume scale and single piece profit, we are still optimistic about the second largest express enterprise in the industry and A-share e-commerce express leader Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) . The company’s value repair space is determined and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
