Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) (603908)
Investment advice
In this paper, we mainly studied the development path of Sino Japanese camping and snowpeak, a representative company, (1) From the perspective of growth space, the revenue of snowpeak in 2020 is 1.06 billion yuan, of which we estimate that the revenue of tents exceeds 400 million yuan (accounting for about 40%), while the revenue of brand business in Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) 2020 is only 160 million yuan (of which the revenue of Damu equipment is 86 million yuan); (2) from the perspective of splitting the number of stores and store efficiency, the number of snowpeak stores / store efficiency in 2020 is 573 / 5.17 million yuan, compared with Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) The number of Xiaomu stores / store efficiency is 271 / 960000 yuan, and there is room for improvement in the number of stores and store efficiency in the future; (3) In terms of gross profit margin and net profit margin, snowpeak is 55% / 6%, but the net profit margin of 21q2 is 11%, and the gross profit margin / net profit margin of Damu is 26% / 5%, so there is room for improvement. Maintaining the profit forecast, it is estimated that the revenue in 2021-23 will be 915 / 12.4 / 1519 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 82 / 124 / 159 million yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.23/1.86/2.39 yuan, the closing price on December 17, 2021 will be 39.29 yuan, and the corresponding PE in 21-23 years will be 3 yuan respectively 2 / 21 / 16x, maintain the "buy" rating. The historical valuation of snowpeak fluctuates between 50-60 times. If you give Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) 22 years of brand business 30-45 times and OEM 20 times, the target market value is 3-3.79 billion yuan and the target price is 45-56.8 yuan.
Comparison of camping market development between China and Japan: social media promotes popularization
Japan ushered in two rounds of camping fever from the late 1980s to the mid-1990s and after 2015. In the first round of camping fever, only 15.8 million people went camping by car in 1996 The market reached 76 billion yen (about 4.3 billion yuan). The second camping fever came from the rise of social media since 2015, and sharing desire has become an important driver of "camping fever". According to the data of Yano Research Institute, the scale of Japan's outdoor equipment market in 2020 was US $4.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.
Comparison of development paths of Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) vssnowpeak
Comparing the development paths of snowpeak and Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) , The differences between the two are: (1) different positioning: snowpeak is high-end and Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) focuses on cost performance; (2) snowpeak focuses on offline development, with 130-400m2 Direct stores, 100m2 in store stores and 50m2 distribution stores (the store efficiency of Direct stores / in store / distribution stores is 5.17 million / 2.71 million / 1.06 million respectively, and the corresponding average efficiency is 13-40000 / 27000 / 21000), Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) Online + group purchase; However, they have something in common: (1) they both started from OEM, pay attention to the appearance and quality of products, and grasp the trend of the rise of exquisite camping. We estimate that Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) exquisite camping series accounts for more than 60%; (2) they all pay attention to the development of categories around camping, Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) has developed tableware, mobile power supply, tables and chairs, etc. at present, the proportion of tents has decreased to 50%; (3) Both extend from the sales of camping products to camp services: Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) at the end of 2021, participate in the hot wilderness and layout the downstream camp market.
Risk statement
Product iteration is less than expected, the epidemic situation is uncertain, the supply of campsites is less than expected, and there are systemic risks.
