Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) (601919)
Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) : after more than ten years of rain, snow, wind and frost, Kangzhuang Avenue is facing forward
In the past, the company achieved profit increase and revenue expansion of the overall business by expanding the dry bulk transportation sector in 2007. However, under the background of the continuous decline of the world shipping market, the company continues to lose money and the operating risk is increasing year by year; Now, the company has re planned its development direction and returned to the main business of centralized transportation. After two mergers and acquisitions of CNOOC and OOCL, the company's centralized transportation business has now achieved the world's leading position: in terms of transportation capacity, the company is currently the fourth largest liner company in the world, with a total transportation capacity of 2.9511 million TEU and a global transportation capacity share of 11.71%; In terms of route network, the company has achieved global network coverage, especially its share in European and American ocean routes and routes in Asia has long ranked among the top three in the market; In terms of business strategy, the company has made great efforts to develop the global route / terminal network, actively constructed the interest community of the centralized transportation industry chain, and the growth rate of the company's centralized transportation business continues to be faster than that of its peers under business coordination, airport coordination and industrial coordination; In the future, based on the existing main business, the company will further expand the "end-to-end" project and use science and technology to build digital shipping. While providing customers with efficient and diversified logistics services, the company will also continue to realize the link extension between the transportation chain and the value chain. There is still room for business expansion, and the future prospect can be expected.
The operation of high freight rates still has the support of supply and demand, and the signing of the European and American long-term association improves the certainty of performance
By reviewing the three stages of freight rate rise, we can sum up the motivation of freight rate rise into two points: ① the rising import demand from European and American countries to China; ② The overall logistics capacity decline caused by the insufficient efficiency of each node of the supply chain. Looking forward to next year, the short-term probability of the supply chain will naturally ease due to the off-season of trade. However, limited by medium and long-term factors such as the epidemic situation and the lack of long-term government investment, the problem of insufficient logistics capacity of the supply chain will occur repeatedly due to the arrival of the peak season, and the phenomenon of effective supply contraction in the market may continue for a long time; In terms of demand, the import boom in Europe and the United States is still possible to continue driven by epidemic factors. From the basic data, the potential demand of major consumer countries is still abundant. From the perspective of the whole year, the freight rate is limited by effective supply, sufficient potential demand and supported by space at the top and bottom. The probability of maintaining high operation throughout the year is still very high. With the signing of the European and American long-term association, the performance certainty of the company next year will also be improved. Under neutral expectation, the European and American long term association will generate nearly 40 billion net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022, and then provide a higher performance basis for the company next year.
From a long-term perspective, the future development of the industry is still better than worry
At present, the industry has passed the key reshuffle period, and the industry CR10 / Cr5 has reached 82.8% / 65%. The position of the head liner company has become more and more stable, and the industry pattern has been basically settled. The alliance operation of liner companies has once again strengthened the market head effect. The three major shipping alliances occupy more than 80% of the global container shipping capacity and divide up the market share of the world's major route navigation areas. Driven by the pattern optimization, the demand for cooperation among liner companies is gradually stronger than the willingness to compete. With the continuous enhancement of industry coordination, the industry is expected to move towards a new development era of mutual benefit and win-win results. On the other hand, there are still worries about surplus at the supply side, and the proportion of ship orders in hand in the industry in the current total transport capacity has increased significantly. However, the demands for future ship disassembly brought by ship aging and environmental protection pressure can not be ignored, and the actual delivery pressure of transport capacity in the future may be partially hedged.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) is a benchmark enterprise in China's centralized transportation industry. It is also the first liner company in Asia and the fourth largest liner company in the world. Benefiting from the rise in freight rates brought by the high prosperity of the industry, we expect the operating revenue of Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) 2021-2023 to be 339.852 billion yuan, 388.129 billion yuan and 294.981 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 97.970 billion yuan, 112.344 billion yuan and 60.168 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 309, 242 and 452 million yuan respectively. For the first time, it will be rated as "overweight".
Risk warning: risk of large-scale expansion of transport capacity; World economic recession risk; Risk of sharp rise in oil prices; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Natural disaster risk; Industry boom uncertainty.
