After the disclosure of the third quarterly report in 2021, A-share listed companies can’t wait to publish the annual performance forecast, which has attracted the attention of many investors. Whose performance is better than expected, and who will explode the performance thunder? How to tap the investment opportunities? Summary of

individual stock performance:

The yuan universe concept leader is listed in the annual report. The pre increased shares are exposed in 6 shares, and the performance is doubled (list)

Statistics show that as of November 24, 36 A-share listed companies have issued performance forecasts for 2021. Excluding the new shares listed in the past week, the net profit of 26 shares increased in advance and 6 shares decreased in advance. In terms of industry, there are 4 pharmaceutical and biological enterprises, 3 mechanical equipment and 3 light industry manufacturing enterprises, accounting for 31.25% of the total; There are two stocks in electronics, chemical industry, computer and transportation.

In terms of the expected increase in net profit, the median increase in net profit of Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) , Yanan Bicon Pharmaceutical Listed Company(002411) , Jiangsu Hualan New Pharmaceutical Material Co.Ltd(301093) , Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) , Shandong Longhua New Material Co.Ltd(301149) and Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300181) 6 shares exceeded 100%; The median increase of Jiangxi Yuean Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(688786) , Goertek Inc(002241) and Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) net profit fell to 50% – 100%.

centralized procurement “normality” accelerates the differentiation and innovation of medical device performance, and platform companies have more “gold content”

The net profit of medical devices in the first three quarters reached 56.7 billion yuan, accounting for 31% of the profit of the whole pharmaceutical sector. At the same time, the performance of medical devices is also accelerating differentiation. Combined with individual stocks, more than 30% of the 100 listed companies of medical devices had a year-on-year decline in net profit, which was much higher than that in the previous years without centralized purchase of medical devices.

Lin Cuncun, chairman of Senrui investment, is more optimistic about the medical device stocks in the innovative field. Innovative devices, such as Tavi, minimally invasive surgical devices, aortic stents, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) etc., because the centralized purchase of products with low penetration, low market share and low localization rate in these fields is not bad. He Juying believes that unmet clinical needs (such as degradable heart stents) and comprehensive platform companies also have attention value.

the deviation between brokerage performance and valuation may be a major reason for intensive refinancing

From the perspective of performance, as an important participant in the capital market, the profitability of the securities industry continues to improve. In the first three quarters, the total assets of 140 securities companies were 10.31 trillion yuan, the operating revenue was 366.357 billion yuan and the net profit was 143.979 billion yuan. Under the condition of high base in the third quarter of last year, the year-on-year growth was 7% and 8.51% respectively, and 124 securities companies achieved profits.

At present, securities companies have gradually reduced their dependence on the brokerage business of “relying on heaven to eat”, comprehensively transformed wealth management, presented a trend of differentiated development, simultaneously gave birth to a new track of wealth management investment, and the stock price trend of securities companies has also been greatly differentiated. As of press time, 40 A-share brokerage stocks ( Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) IPO this year, not included) had a head to tail difference of 99% during the year. Among them, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) with high proportion of wealth management business in revenue led the securities sector, up 47.86% and 29.24% respectively; China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) showed an upward trend, and all the other 35 brokerage stocks fell, Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) all fell by more than 40%.

industry performance summary:

basic chemical industry: good performance, high prosperity of new energy chemical materials is expected to continue

There are some uncertainties in the market in the near future, such as uncertainty in the degree and sustainability of demand pressure, uncertainty in the rhythm and amplitude of liquidity tightening, and uncertainty in the disturbance at the supply end. In this market context, the market may pay more attention to the matching degree between fundamentals and valuation, that is to say, certainty and safety cushion will be the main considerations in the direction of market selection. Along this line of thought, it is suggested to focus on three directions: first, new energy chemical materials. We are optimistic about ternary cathode and EVA; Second, it is suggested to focus on the tire and resin industry; Third, the direction of new materials, especially the direction of ushering in the inflection point. It is suggested to focus on optical films, molecular sieves and high-end engineering plastics.

pharmaceutical and biological industry: rehabilitation policies are frequent, and the development of the industry may usher in a new inflection point

We believe that solving the medical, pension and rehabilitation problems caused by population aging has become an important national strategy. Since June 2021, the frequent introduction of relevant policies reflects the country’s urgent demand for rehabilitation medical construction. The rapid filling of the supply side gap is expected to bring a new inflection point for the development of the industry, We continue to be optimistic about the development prospects of relevant enterprises in the field of rehabilitation.

investment strategy of national defense industry in 2022: short adjustment creates layout opportunities, long logic and firm investment value

We believe that under the traction of national defense construction, localization substitution and civil demand, the national defense industry can still maintain a high outlook, sustained and rapid development and maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry. It is suggested that the investment in the national defense industry in 2022 should be carried out along the three main lines of aviation, ships and military electronics. Aviation mainline, recommended Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Hyatech Co.Ltd(688510) ; Ship mainline, recommended China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) , China Cssc Holdings Limited(600150) lease, recommended China Shipbuilding Industry Company Limited(601989) , Cssc Offshore & Marine Engineering (Group) Company Limited(600685) ; Main line of military electronics, recommended Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Zhuzhou Hongda Electronics Corp.Ltd(300726) , recommended to pay attention to Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) ; Other tracks recommend Guangdong Hongda Blasting Co.Ltd(002683) for missile assembly and Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) for military testing.

Discussion on Power Industry Valuation System under the background of carbon neutrality: how should new energy operators give valuation

With the proposal of carbon neutralization strategy, the power industry has officially become the main track of China’s energy structure reform. We conclude that carbon neutralization has a triple multiplier impact on the overall profits of the power sector: the first is the substitution of electricity for bulk coal, oil and natural gas brought about by the transformation of primary energy consumption structure. The overall power consumption scale of the whole society has been expanded by 3-4 times. The clean transformation is not the left hand of thermal power and new energy; The second is the structural substitution within the power industry. The proportion of wind power photovoltaic power generation has increased from less than 10% at present to 60% – 70% in 2060, an increase of 6-7 times; The third is the substitution of profits between power industry chains. The new energy operation industry chain is shorter than coal power, and the gross profit margin is significantly higher than coal power. The change of power generation mode leads to the expansion of kWh profit. Under the background of the current low profit expectation of the coal power industry as a whole, the triple influence is a multiplier. The transformation of new energy has led to the upgrading of the underlying investment logic of the power industry, and the profit valuation of the power industry is expected to usher in double expansion.

in depth report on second-hand e-commerce industry: the scale of idle market exceeds trillion, and second-hand e-commerce ushers in circular economy dividends

With the help of circular economy, the Gmv of second-hand e-commerce industry is expected to exceed 400 billion. In 2020, the scale of China’s idle market exceeded trillion, and the rise of idle economy provided a driving force for the rapid development of second-hand e-commerce. From the perspective of transaction scale, the penetration rate of second-hand e-commerce continues to increase, and the transaction scale of second-hand e-commerce is expected to exceed 400 billion in 2021; From the perspective of user scale, the growth rate of users of second-hand e-commerce platforms is stable, and it is expected to exceed 200 million in 2021. In 2021, the state will accelerate the construction of a circular economy system. The characteristics of carbon emission reduction of second-hand transactions are in line with the development model of circular economy. Favorable policies are expected to help the healthy development of the second-hand market.