the company released the report for the first quarter of 2021, and the company realized a revenue of 2.95 billion yuan (YoY + 37.17%, QoQ + 25.53%) in Q1 of 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 181 million yuan (YoY + 210.80%, QoQ + 41.41%); The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non recurring profit was 196 million yuan (YoY + 320.86%, QoQ + 89.11%), mainly due to the increase of non recurring profit and loss caused by hedging loss of 30.8474 million yuan, which affected the net profit attributable to the parent company. Roe reached 5.12% (YoY + 3.33%, QoQ + 1.37%) in a single quarter, mainly due to the increase of compound fertilizer sales and the continuous improvement of product gross profit margin.
the advantages of industrial chain integration have been continuously consolidated, the boom in agricultural materials has boosted the sales of compound fertilizer, and the company’s performance growth has entered the fast lane . (1) Fill in the balance and constantly improve the industrial chain integration. The company’s cogeneration project is expected to be put into operation this year, which will further consolidate the cost advantage of industrial chain integration. (2) The sales scale of chemical fertilizer continues to increase, and the optimization of three fee rates is the basis of performance guarantee. By strengthening management benchmarking, the cost rate of the company has further decreased significantly, including a year-on-year decrease of 0.49pct in sales rate, 1.77pct in management rate, 0.34pct in financial cost, and continuous improvement in management efficiency. (3) Compound fertilizer follows the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) boom. At present, the global grain inventory consumption is at a new low of 7 years. Some main grains are still in a large replenishment cycle, and the industry boom cycle is expected to continue to drive the demand for compound fertilizer. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 326-383 million in the first half of January 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70.00-100.00%, further verifying the prosperity of the compound fertilizer industry and the advantages of the company’s industrial chain integration.
the glass business cycle starts, and the rise of soda ash is expected to contribute to the performance elasticity . At present, the price of heavy alkali in East China has increased from 1475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 1950 yuan / ton. The superposition of completion cycle and photovoltaic cycle is expected to drive the demand for soda ash. From January to February 2021, the cumulative output of flat glass was 160.8 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, reaching a record high level. The real estate is expected to be further repaired after completion in 2021. At the same time, the restrictions on the new production capacity of photovoltaic glass are relaxed. It is expected that the new production capacity of photovoltaic glass is mainly the production capacity of Xinyi (4000t / D) and Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (4600t / D). The release of production capacity will further increase the demand for soda ash and drive up the price. The industrial chain is equipped with sodium chloride dechlorination. The company has 600000 tons of soda ash and ammonium chloride respectively. For every 100 yuan / ton increase in the price of soda ash, the profit will be increased by about 45 million.
maintain the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating . It is estimated that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 728 / 944 / 1150 million from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE is 13X / 10x / 8x respectively. Recently, the repurchased shares are used for employee stock ownership, which is bound to high performance growth. It is recommended to give a valuation premium higher than the industry, maintain the six-month target market value of 14.6 billion, maintain the “buy” rating of .
risk tip : product price drops; Uncertainty of environmental protection policy; Risk of falling demand.
（ Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) ）
