On November 18, the Ministry of transport issued the 14th five year plan for the development of integrated transport services (hereinafter referred to as the plan). The overall goal of the plan is to accelerate the construction of a transportation power, and accelerate the construction of a convenient, smooth, economical, efficient, open and shared, green, intelligent, safe and reliable modern comprehensive transportation service system.
The plan predicts that from 2021 to 2025, the average annual growth rate of passenger travel volume will be about 4.3%, the proportion of high-speed rail, civil aviation and car travel will continue to increase, and the demand for tourism travel and urban agglomeration passenger travel will be more vigorous; The freight volume of the whole society has an average annual growth of 2.3%, the express business has an average annual growth of 15.4%, the growth rate of road freight volume has slowed down, the growth rate of railway and civil aviation freight volume has accelerated, the water freight volume has increased steadily, and e-commerce express will maintain a rapid growth trend.
The plan specifies that by 2025, the construction of “national 123 travel transportation circle” and “global 123 fast cargo logistics circle” will be accelerated, a multi-level and high-quality passenger travel service system and a full chain and integrated freight logistics service system will be preliminarily established, the modern international logistics supply chain system will be continuously improved, the transportation structure will be further optimized, the level of transportation equipment will be greatly improved, green The level of digital development has been significantly improved, the safety and emergency security system has been improved, the governance capacity has been significantly improved, and the ability to serve and support economic and social development has been further enhanced.
institutions are optimistic about the transportation service industry
medium term development prospect
Remarkable achievements have been made in the development of comprehensive transportation services during the 13th five year plan. According to the data, in 2020, 9.67 billion people and 46.44 billion tons of commercial freight will be completed; During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the volume of container hot metal combined transport increased by 23.8% annually; The number of new energy operating vehicles is 8 times that at the beginning of the 13th five year plan; Successful flight test of C919 large passenger plane; Data access supervision service platform of 75 online car Hailing platform companies.
The Ministry of transport said that in general, during the “14th five year plan” period, the development mode of comprehensive transportation services should pay more attention to quality and efficiency, the organizational model should pay more attention to integration, the development power should pay more attention to innovation drive, the industrial form should pay more attention to the integration of old business forms, and the service products should pay more attention to the higher-level dynamic balance of demand driving supply and supply creating demand, It will provide strong support for accelerating the construction of a transportation power and serving the comprehensive construction of a socialist modern country.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that aviation is expected to usher in a dual recovery outside China, and the rebound of sector performance is expected; The airport is waiting for the recovery of the international line and is optimistic about the long-term traffic commercial value of the hub airport; The price war in the express industry tends to ease. With the advent of the peak season in the fourth quarter, profits are gradually released, and there is still room for growth in the medium term; The freight rate of shipping remained high in the fourth quarter, the freight rate of oil transportation in peak season may be expected, and the dry bulk cargo is optimistic about the medium-term upward cycle.
16 concept shares
There are more than 10 agency ratings
According to the statistics of securities times · databao, there are 28 stocks in the comprehensive transportation service industry with high institutional attention. Since October, 28 shares have risen by an average of 3.19%, better than the market in the same period. Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) and Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) led the increase, with 26.39% and 25.72% respectively. Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) is a professional chemical supply chain service provider, providing one-stop comprehensive logistics and chemical products trading services; Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) is a leading enterprise in the metal logistics and distribution industry. Another 6 shares, including China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , rose more than 10%. Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) the maximum callback in the same period is 23.32%; Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) shares also fell 12.79%.
In terms of institutional attention, there are more than 10 rating agencies for 16 shares, Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) and more than 20 rating agencies; The number of ratings such as Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Air China Limited(601111) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ranks first. Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) operates and manages Pudong airport. The main operating assets are Pudong airport runway, terminal and 40% equity of Pudong aviation oil company. At present, the capacity scale of the company is second only to capital airport. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) is a leader in China’s comprehensive logistics services. The company has a national normal temperature + cold chain logistics and transportation network, as well as a huge terminal network and big data resources.
In terms of the performance growth predicted by the institutions this year, Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , China Merchants Expressway Network Technology Holdings Co.Ltd(001965) and Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co.Ltd(603565) the institutions predict that the net profit will double, of which Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) is the highest, 775.96%. From the gap between the current price and the target price predicted by the consensus, 19 shares have more than 20% room for rise, and Zheshang Development Group Co.Ltd(000906) , Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) and Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) institutions have more than 60% room for rise.
(Securities Times)
